The Other "LCC's" after WN/FL Merger

[tpaYankee]

Not much has been mentioned with regard to the future of the other ladies at the dance...

Alaska
Allegiant
Frontier/Midwest/RAH
Hawaiian
JetBlue
Spirit
Sun Country
US Airways
USA 3000
Virgin America

Any thoughts?
Alaska Great niche, unaffected by most deals, however rumors of Delta talks have been floating around. Many VERY loyal customers
Allegiant SWA says on their lowfaresfarther.com site that they plan on expanding the "small city" and international markets that FL is bringing to the table. Many fare conscience, lesuire customers may be lured to the "no fees" campaign. CEO says they want to grow independently
Frontier SWA says they see many opportunities in MKE. DEN should be an indication. Company still has many other cards in hand with regional ops
Hawaiian No competition at this point although rumors are floating about -800s
Jetblue CEO says they want to grow independently. Code share with Lufthansa, Aer Lingus, and AA
Spirit See Allegiant comments
Sun Country They have the -800s and ETOPS cert
US Airways AA??
USA 3000 SWA flies into majority of their domestic markets. With the intl ops that FL brings, the combined airline may very well compete.
Virgin America Sir Richard has some deep pockets...

Any other mergers on the horizon??

 

[Daytonaflyer]

Alaska Airlines great niche??? They compete head to head with most major airlines in the country and run a typical hub and spoke system. Just because they focus mostly on the NW doesn't mean they're a niche. I could see them merging with a larger competitor.

Allegiant Air could be annoyed but not worry too much about SWA. They are a true niche airline with direct competition on only about 10 routes. Allegiant's costs are literally half of SWA's. Southwest has to keep their airplanes flying all day long to make a profit. Smaller cities can't fill 737's seven days a week or multiple times a day. I suppose they could use AirTran's 717's for this, but I think they want to stick with 737's. But I'm biased here.

Frontier has tons of competition and will soon be flying regional jets at mainline rates. Southwest already killed their business model once.

Hawaiian Airlines has no competition??? Alaska, United, Delta, US Air, Continental, and soon Allegiant, all fly to/from Hawaii. They also have Go Airlines and Island Air competing in the inter-island market.

Jet Blue - never trust what an airline CEO says. I could see them merge, Virgin America offers the exact same product out west. But JB seems to be doing better than Virgin and may wish to stay independent. It will all depend if an airline offers their investors enough money per share to make it worth their while.

Spirit Airlines - Will going public be good for them? They seem to be doing pretty well, but not outstanding. They have expensive new airplanes and an expensive model. They will need to avoid competition which may be hard if SWA goes into the Caribbean.

Sun Country will probably be bought by somebody, possibly SWA. They already fly 737's.

US Air - Wouldn't 3 airline operations and seniority lists merging into one be even easier to screw up than the two they already screwed up?

USA3000 - They only have 4 airplanes and they aren't doing well. More than half their pilots are furloughed.

Virgin America - Branson's deep pockets are currently keeping them alive but they aren't his first airline to experience troubles. Only time will tell if this one survives.

 

[Mike man]

Spirit Airlines - Will going public be good for them? They seem to be doing pretty well, but not outstanding. They have expensive new airplanes and an expensive model. They will need to avoid competition which may be hard if SWA goes into the Caribbean.

Not a bunch of overlap on AirTran / Spirit cities maybe 5 in the Caribbean or Mexico.

 

[Jim]

Hawaiian No competition at this point although rumors are floating about -800s

Huh? No rumors here about getting 737-800s if that is what you mean. We're getting A330s and eventually A350s. Not rumor - fact.

I wouldn't call us a LCC either.

 

[Skippy]

actually spirit is an ULCC--- ( ultra low cost carrier) apparently they creasted a new term

 

[Ameriagle]

Huh? No rumors here about getting 737-800s if that is what you mean. We're getting A330s and eventually A350s. Not rumor - fact.

I wouldn't call us a LCC either.

I'm sure he was referring to the rumor that SWA is looking at 800's. For a possible HI service?

 

[tpaYankee]

I'm sure he was referring to the rumor that SWA is looking at 800's. For a possible HI service?

Exactly...

While HAL isn't an LCC I thought they were worth discussing in this thread. There are other carriers flying lower 48 to HI, but they are not flying HI to Asia, Australia etc like HAL

 

[tpaYankee]

Not a bunch of overlap on AirTran / Spirit cities maybe 5 in the Caribbean or Mexico.

SWA said in both an internal email and the website, they plan on EXPANDING on the current international AND small city services provided by FL. They specifically mentioned the 717 as a great fit for small town USA. Sounds like Spirit/jetBlue/Allegiant are on the radar.

 

[Jim]

Hawaiian Airlines has no competition??? Alaska, United, Delta, US Air, Continental, and soon Allegiant, all fly to/from Hawaii. They also have Go Airlines and Island Air competing in the inter-island market.

I'm sure he was referring to the rumor that SWA is looking at 800's. For a possible HI service?

Exactly...

While HAL isn't an LCC I thought they were worth discussing in this thread. There are other carriers flying lower 48 to HI, but they are not flying HI to Asia, Australia etc like HAL

Hawaiian has plenty of competition as Daytonflyer states. And we compete quite well.

There have been rumors of SWA flying to Hawaii or inter-island for years. I don't think it'll happen, even if it can be argued their Air Tran acquisition is stepping away from their long held business models. ETOPS certification of aircraft and crews is expensive and SWA likes to have any aircraft/any pilot/any route. Even though they may keep the 717s, ETOPS is too radical a departure from their philosophy. I've discussed this in the past with their pilots while jump seating and they always agree. I don't see anything here changing that.

Inter-island - not big enough or profitable enough to interest them. There is a reason inter-island is a niche market and why their aren't more air carriers trying it. By our history and who we are, we are forced to fly inter-island and always will, regardless if we are profitable there or not. No one else has this obligation and I don't see anyone beating down the doors (besides the failure that is Go) to do it. For Hawaiian, inter-island is an obligation.

 

[tzflyer]

SW owns the ATA airlines certificate with worldwide authority, 737/757 ETOPS approval already. They just need to place a few airplanes on it and train the mx and flt. ops people on the already FAA approved procedures, fwiw