The economy and airline business

[ohplease!]

So people won't have to retire at age 65? The only way airlines won't be hiring in the coming years is if they shrink capacity along with their retirements (which is a possibility of course). How is that open to interpretation?

Yes they will....yes they will....sorry if you were counting on that job

 

[Always deferred]

Sorry but have to agree w/ ohplease. The coming double dip is the perfect excuse to reduce capacity and other bad things.

And this doesn't even factor in the likely possibility of the dollar disappearing as the reserve currency.

 

[ohplease!]

Don't get me wrong, I hope anyone that wants to go to mainline gets the opportunity and you may someday. I've been hearing this pilot shortage silliness since the 80's and it hasn't happened yet. Something ALWAYS comes along to negate any huge need for mainline hiring.

Mainline will always need to hire but, don't put all your hopes on some massive hiring spree.

 

[bri5150]

So capacity is just about right right now. I have heard nightmares about non-reving anywhere at this point. So, if things slow down and they cut capacity along with retirements, what happens when the pax comes back in 3 years? Are they not going to increase capacity to add revenue? I get everyone's scepticism, but the majors are going to have to hire at some point unless there is some type of permanent reason people don't fly anymore (maybe high speed rail, but I doubt it).

 

[ohplease!]

I would guess larger airframes/less frequency....major and regional

 

[General Lee]

Don't get me wrong, I hope anyone that wants to go to mainline gets the opportunity and you may someday. I've been hearing this pilot shortage silliness since the 80's and it hasn't happened yet. Something ALWAYS comes along to negate any huge need for mainline hiring.

Mainline will always need to hire but, don't put all your hopes on some massive hiring spree.

In the past, the Regionals have picked up the slack, coming in to "save the day" (not). Well, these days Regionals are losing planes faster than ever, and mainline carriers are more profitable, reducing the risk of BK and scope changes via a judge. New work/fatigue rules and hiring rules will eventually come out, making it even harder for regionals to make profits. That has forced many large regionals to try to consolidate, to just keep some market share for feed. EAS routes are being threatened to be cut by Congress, negating the need for smaller planes like BE1900s and Saabs. Small communities will lose service, and that means less feed or use for some regionals. But, people will always need to travel, and these days it seems it is more likely that they will travel on mainline planes. That's good.



Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

I would guess larger airframes/less frequency....major and regional

Very unlikely that the regionals will get larger airframes. Most of the legacies are healthier, and unions will not vote for that, even with larger raises offered. I think most have had enough of your growth. Don't count on it at all.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Sorry but have to agree w/ ohplease. The coming double dip is the perfect excuse to reduce capacity and other bad things.

And this doesn't even factor in the likely possibility of the dollar disappearing as the reserve currency.

Stocks back up 400 points after losing a bunch over the last two weeks. Will it go down to 2008 levels? Probably not. Companies are flush with cash, they haven't hired much, but they have more cash than they did back in 2008. Airlines have overall done a lot better. There were some disruptions, like the Japan Earthquake, but other than that we've had a good Summer and Q3 will be good. Even this tax holiday we just had thanks to the ticket tax vanishing for a week or so will be great for the bottomline. The dollar is actually rising fast against the Euro thanks to their economies tanking faster than ours. Oil is way down too, which will help the consumer and airlines alike. You need to watch more CNBC and quit drinking when you get up each morning.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[007]

If we go into Great Recession II, I wouldn't bet my job on fuel prices dropping low enough that airlines are willing to subsidize half-full airplanes as the norm, rather than the exception.

With all the money they've been printing, you can be sure Inflation will take care of those low fuel prices.

 

[paid4training]

The stock market rebounded today but I believe that is just some profit takers and p/e hawks reinvesting. Say what you will about politics but Obama is causing a lot of headaches on wall street, blue chip stocks and most companies. Companies are sitting on cash to stay afloat for the next Obama typhoon, but it's all Bush's fault two years later tho. I hope the economy can sustain the next two years but the I have little hope the majority of Americans will vote differently than in 2008!!!

 

[pilotyip]

The stock market rebounded today but I believe that is just some profit takers and p/e hawks reinvesting. Say what you will about politics but Obama is causing a lot of headaches on wall street, blue chip stocks and most companies. Companies are sitting on cash to stay afloat for the next Obama typhoon, but it's all Bush's fault two years later tho. I hope the economy can sustain the next two years but the I have little hope the majority of Americans will vote differently than in 2008!!!

I think we will back above 12K by the end of the month, still a chance of 14K by years end. Companies are doing to well, good profits, good cash reserves, too many good things out there. I am also betting the traders drove down prices, knowing all the talking heads would scare people to get out of equities and allow the traders to find some deals. A lot of people made a lot of money on the drops this week, but another bunch lost a lot money by reacting to short term. Again these are all guesses, but I am sticking by my guesses.

 

[ohplease!]

I think we will back above 12K by the end of the month, still a chance of 14K by years end. Companies are doing to well, good profits, good cash reserves, too many good things out there. I am also betting the traders drove down prices, knowing all the talking heads would scare people to get out of equities and allow the traders to find some deals. A lot of people made a lot of money on the drops this week, but another bunch lost a lot money by reacting to short term. Again these are all guesses, but I am sticking by my guesses.

Pollyanna? Is it REALLY you? wow, where have you been honey child?

 

[tomgoodman]

Carnak says:

Pollyanna? Is it REALLY you? wow, where have you been honey child?

A: Pollyanna, Chicken Little, Nostradamus, and Bozo the Clown.

Q: Name four credible market analysts.

 

[reepicheep]

still tons of retirements coming up, the 2012 hiring boom will still happen, maybe just not a big

No; with the reduction in 401k account balances we will see a push to raise the retirement age to 67 or even 70 - just in time to offset the coming "pilot shortage" yet again.

 

[reepicheep]

You sure about that? Oil prices are falling faster than the presidents approval rating.

The problem is the disconnect between dropping crude oil prices and jet fuel continues to increase and there has so far been little relief for airlines, even as prices at the gas station pump continue to fall.