I'm number 116 in the pool and was wondering what the upgrade time would be for us.
At this point, I just want to get on the property but would like to hear some input on this. Chase? anyone?
I hate to give you the weenie answer, but in the absence of a REALLY GOOD crystal ball, the best I can do is to tell you some of the many reasons that IT DEPENDS.
SWAPA has a website that can project time to upgrade based on projected deliveries & retirements, but you have to be on the seniority list to use it. They will tell you that using projected deliveries tends to give a conservative estimate (i.e. SWA generally grows more quickly than those #'s indicate), but how much more so... who knows? For guys who've been here a few years, the upgrade timeframe stretches out beyond the "historic" 5-6 years, because so few pilots have joined the list in the past 2 years (compared to historic trends). However, for guys who come in at the front of a massive wave of growth (possibly you guys -- hope, hope!), you may start upgrade a few months after somebody who started at SWA a couple years before you did.
-- i.e. your upgrade will come quicker than his did.
SWAPA says upgrades tend to happen between 60% and 50% of system seniority -- i.e. between 40 and 50% of the way UP the list. You can upgrade sooner if you go to the junior base as the bottom captain on the list; you'll upgrade later if you wait until you can hold captain at a more senior (closer to home, perhaps) base. By the time you reach 50% on the overall seniority list, it's about time to do it, since there are a few more captains than FO's in the system (for reasons of more captain vacation weeks, more senior guys out on medical leave, etc).
So, it depends. Biggest factor is how quickly SWA grows in the 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 years following you being hired. Retirements, both mandatory & otherwise ("calling in rich" as well as medical) play a significant role as well. To give you a ballpark, if you upgrade in 5 years, you're matching the historical average & will have done better than guys who were hired in 01 & 02 presently can anticipate. On the other hand, 8 years is probably worst case.
Sorry I can't be more specific, but my crystal ball isn't too clear these days.
Looking forward to seeing ALL the poolies on the seniority list,
At such point as you can hold "lance captain" (top X percent of FO's in base, bid as an FO but able to pick up captain trips), you WILL go through upgrade. Bust upgrade twice & you're done. However, you can continue to bid as an FO your entire career (though, being a lance, you'll always take captain PC & PT checkrides and you'll get a line check as a captain).
There are a few *really* senior guys in DAL who could hold GOOD schedules at any other base as captains (probably top half if not top quarter of the list) but who fly as Lances in Dallas. To each his own.
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