Heard at the Kool-Aid stand
Here's a very educated estimate of what's gonna happen-in the beginning of '04. This info has been substantiated by three different Chief pilots and by mine and other pilots' observations.
Age 60 retirements--143--add to that any early or med, retirements; but to be conservative stick with the knowns.
A/C deliveries: 42
-200 retirements 17--takes the total number of -200s left at the end of '04 to 4 (21 left at the end of '03)
net 25 blurple -700s with winglets!!
each A/C equals 10.67 pilots=267 dudes/dudettes
Total at this point needed is 410. !!!!!MINIMUM!!!!
Classes to start 5 Jan and should run 20 folks thru every two weeks.
Approx. 21 classes takes it until the end of Sept.
--Boeing is rumored to be slashing prices to SWA on all the deferrals from AA, DAL, UAL, and CAL. (Like 50 additional fire sale -700s.) Only time will tell if Gary Kelly can swing the deal.
--Training center was asked for max output numbers for next year. The company needed to know if 1000 was possible--training center said no unless we start in Oct. With a Jan. start then 800 is the number. Again the rumors are flying about.
2005 and '06 looking at 500+ each year.
Unverified number in pool--212. Don't know the number that have hung their spurs in another pilot lounge or decided to stay with Uncle Sam for a while longer. So there will be at least 200 people from new interviews needed fairly quickly--ie by May. It takes a good 5-6 weeks to run all the paper work under the old system.
Old system?? That means there must be a new system....The Company is looking into creating an all electronic data base to free up some of the labor intensive duties that the old system required. Don't have the specs yet--they may have all those currently in the interview pool resubmit to get the data base up to speed and current--preference will probably be given to the old heads that were just on the verge of being called prior to the interviews being stopped. The company is also seriously considering prioritizing who is called first by type vs no type then by experience factors--pic time, recency of experience, etc. No details yet.
They are also planning on speeding the process to the decision committee, and the committee schedule itself. In the past they needed to fly into town not only the interviewers, but also 10 or so Chief Pilots at great expense and time consumption. Estimates in the past said that each interview cost the company around $3000.00 to accomplish. Rumor is that in the future the Chiefs will choose the new hires via a teleconference with each person's info being seen by each Chief via internet. We'll see...
Things it seems are starting to happen in rapid fashion. Look for a new base to be named in the Spring--at least one if not two new cities. Where is anyone's guess.
So to the poolies, enjoy you last hoildays off for a while, and get ready for Dallas. For those waiting for the interview call--get ALL your paperwork in order--don't leave anything to chance--there are too many people in the flying community out of work these days that probably never thought they would be--the stakes have gone up considerably. You basically have one shot at it--take your best one!!! Best of Luck......
