Since a 73 sized 78 looses most of the benefits of the 78's large wing, Boeing will never make it. SWA will eventually have to replace their 73, their final options expire in 2018, so they have time to figure that out. Boeing may select a more efficient engine on their NGs and decide to make them for another couple decades (I can't find any concrete proof that Boeing plans on terminating their 73 line, send a link if I am wrong). If SWA wants a higher capacity airplane, they'd probably go the route of the -800 / 900ER (maintaining their single type rating & more importantly thier single "training" curriculums for their flight crews). I think the -900 would do them well in the LGA / BOS / high density markets. A -900ER costs about 33% more, but carriers 42% more passengers (single config, 32" pitch). It fits in most system gates, flies transcon and almost doubles cargo capacity. As a side note, higher density airplanes do NOT necessarily increase the pilot seniority list, so be careful what you wish for. SWA does have the option of substituting the -700 for a -6/800, but must give 18 months notice, so unless they are hush about it, it won't happen for awhile.
If the "new" business model of high oil prices is here to stay, I would not be surprised to see a shift to higher density airplanes. We've seen that with the smaller RJ manufactures. Airlines can NOT grow out of higher fuel CASM, fleet growth does lower average salaries (with new hires), but it does not offset extra fuel costs. $80 oil is a tough pill to swallow, but made easier with enormous load factors! These high LF may eventually lead to a -800 / 900ER model that works with an quasi-aggressive growth plan.
GK is very conservative (some say "Gloom & Doom Gary"), but has anyone listened / read the '09 Q4 earnings call. He's "cautiously optimistic" about 2010, but ...
Most probably scenario: 2010 is flat. We will add the N FL "Beaches" airport and maybe 1 or 2 other cities (swag). Pick up 10 new airplanes, but retire / give back expiring leases. Jan & Feb (scheduled) are behind us, but lines will improve in 2nd/3rd qtr, and will be a little higher than yoy. So any unplanned growth will not be scheduled very efficiently, which I read as "not gonna happen," at least in the 1st half of the year. That being said, GK said he does not have to retire the 10 a/c mentioned above and he could go into the "resell" market to surge if conditions warrant. BEST case, is a 20 plane growth in 2010 from our Jan schedule (511 scheduled but 535 on the books), however this scenario is highly unlikely, considering employment #s and economy in general!
GK is working on improving the balance sheet in 2010, so I don't see a huge outlay of capital this year. But we do have 2.6 billion in cash and short term investments, so the potential is there to go on a buying spree. Currently we are leveraged around 45%, and GK is comfortable with this level as it still maintains our investment grade status in the bond market.
GK wishes he could add to LGA (no gates or slots to be had in LGA; no cabotage from ISP is great to hear) but instead is focusing intensely in DEN, 144 flights per day in August and to a lesser extent in STL.
The WestJet & Volaris codeshares ;-( should start later this year, but I have not heard anything solid yet (read: no advertising for the summer months and this is where I'd expect to see a push / ad campaign), so we'll see how this goes. GK does intend to eventually fly near international with our own metal, but not likely in 2010 or 2011 or that matter.
Sorry if that got a little "investment" for your question. I do not see a lot of growth this year, but I would love to see us end '10 with 560 planes, at least 4 added cities , and an expansion of our current network (more non-stops). The permutation of each new city has the potential to drastically increase our city pairs (and our schedules).
I do not see us merging with Alaska, Airtran or anyone for that matter, save the chp 7 fire sale (which I do not see happening unless we see a double dip, employment #s sag more, and the credit markets tighten up again).
Sun Country is an interesting case though. I don't know their product well enough to speculate, ahhh but what the heck. What is 9 a/c, some seasonal service worth? GK may see this as a large -800 buy up front to increase our ASM from the high density cities. Caribbean presence, ANK, could trade JFK for LGA, ..., but who knows.
This is probably too long for most to read, and of course this is just one line pilot's opinion.
If the "new" business model of high oil prices is here to stay, I would not be surprised to see a shift to higher density airplanes. We've seen that with the smaller RJ manufactures. Airlines can NOT grow out of higher fuel CASM, fleet growth does lower average salaries (with new hires), but it does not offset extra fuel costs. $80 oil is a tough pill to swallow, but made easier with enormous load factors! These high LF may eventually lead to a -800 / 900ER model that works with an quasi-aggressive growth plan.
GK is very conservative (some say "Gloom & Doom Gary"), but has anyone listened / read the '09 Q4 earnings call. He's "cautiously optimistic" about 2010, but ...
Most probably scenario: 2010 is flat. We will add the N FL "Beaches" airport and maybe 1 or 2 other cities (swag). Pick up 10 new airplanes, but retire / give back expiring leases. Jan & Feb (scheduled) are behind us, but lines will improve in 2nd/3rd qtr, and will be a little higher than yoy. So any unplanned growth will not be scheduled very efficiently, which I read as "not gonna happen," at least in the 1st half of the year. That being said, GK said he does not have to retire the 10 a/c mentioned above and he could go into the "resell" market to surge if conditions warrant. BEST case, is a 20 plane growth in 2010 from our Jan schedule (511 scheduled but 535 on the books), however this scenario is highly unlikely, considering employment #s and economy in general!
GK is working on improving the balance sheet in 2010, so I don't see a huge outlay of capital this year. But we do have 2.6 billion in cash and short term investments, so the potential is there to go on a buying spree. Currently we are leveraged around 45%, and GK is comfortable with this level as it still maintains our investment grade status in the bond market.
GK wishes he could add to LGA (no gates or slots to be had in LGA; no cabotage from ISP is great to hear) but instead is focusing intensely in DEN, 144 flights per day in August and to a lesser extent in STL.
The WestJet & Volaris codeshares ;-( should start later this year, but I have not heard anything solid yet (read: no advertising for the summer months and this is where I'd expect to see a push / ad campaign), so we'll see how this goes. GK does intend to eventually fly near international with our own metal, but not likely in 2010 or 2011 or that matter.
Sorry if that got a little "investment" for your question. I do not see a lot of growth this year, but I would love to see us end '10 with 560 planes, at least 4 added cities , and an expansion of our current network (more non-stops). The permutation of each new city has the potential to drastically increase our city pairs (and our schedules).
I do not see us merging with Alaska, Airtran or anyone for that matter, save the chp 7 fire sale (which I do not see happening unless we see a double dip, employment #s sag more, and the credit markets tighten up again).
Sun Country is an interesting case though. I don't know their product well enough to speculate, ahhh but what the heck. What is 9 a/c, some seasonal service worth? GK may see this as a large -800 buy up front to increase our ASM from the high density cities. Caribbean presence, ANK, could trade JFK for LGA, ..., but who knows.
This is probably too long for most to read, and of course this is just one line pilot's opinion.
