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SWA named Airline Champ of 2007 by WSJ. GL how did Delta do!

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bravodude

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 15, 2003
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THE MIDDLE SEAT
By SCOTT MCCARTNEY
colhed_middle_seat.jpg



The Airline Champ of 2007

In Dismal Year,
Southwest Scored;
American Struggled
February 5, 2008; Page D4
The New York Giants pulled an upset, but in the Super Bowl of airline competition, there were no last-minute heroics or thrilling victories last year, just lots of competitors struggling mightily and lots of customers paying higher prices for generally mediocre service.
Air travel took a major slide backward last year as air-traffic congestion and nasty storms collided with staffing cutbacks, equipment deficiencies and grumpy workers. Airlines battled extremely strong head winds in the form of high fuel prices -- the 10 largest U.S. carriers paid $1.5 billion more for fuel than they did in 2006. Still, they squeaked out combined operating income of $6.7 billion last year, up from $4.3 billion in 2006.
Which airline had the best year last year? You'd have to say Southwest Airlines Co., but with an asterisk. Southwest was best among the 10 biggest carriers in on-time arrivals, according to FlightStats.com, and through the first 11 months of the year, it had the fewest customer complaints in Department of Transportation statistics. It also had the biggest profits among those 10 airlines. But its baggage handling slipped markedly last year to sixth place among the Big 10 as tighter security rules increased checked baggage volume. And in terms of profits, Southwest's net income came entirely from smartly playing the fuel-hedging futures markets, not flying passengers. The airline earned $645 million last year -- after $727 million in cash gains on fuel contracts bought in commodities markets back when oil prices were much lower.
US Airways Group Inc. had plenty of struggles, but almost a mirror image of Southwest's record. US Airways had solid earnings at $427 million, but terrible operations. US Airways was No. 8 among the 10 biggest carriers in on-time arrivals for 2007, according to FlightStats, a flight-tracking service and unit of Conducive Technology Corp. Through the first 11 months of last year, US Airways was worst among its peers in baggage handling and consumer complaints, according to DOT. (Full-year DOT results are expected to be released today.)
The airline says its operation performed a lot better in the fourth quarter and over the holidays, suggesting 2008 will be a better year.
Continental Airlines Inc., Delta Air Lines Inc. and Northwest Airlines Corp. were all in the middle of the pack. Delta and Northwest rebounded from their bankruptcy reorganizations with relatively strong financial results last year, but customer service still lagged. Northwest was No. 6 in on-time arrivals and in customer complaints; Delta was third in on-time arrivals, but No. 9 in baggage handling and No. 8 in complaints. Continental did fairly well financially and operationally, but ranked ninth-worst in terms of frequency of bumping customers from flights, according to DOT's count through September. Delta was the worst at bumping customers.
And the bigger airlines were even less reliable. Worst among the big airlines in on-time arrivals last year was AMR Corp.'s American Airlines, according to FlightStats. American's baggage handling ranked No. 8 through November, and its rate of customer complaints was No. 7. AMR's earnings were among the weakest in the industry as well, its profit margin for the year was slightly better than UAL Corp.'s United Airlines and JetBlue Airways Inc., but no one else.
United struggled with its operation, too. United's on-time percentage ranked seventh, according to FlightStats, after a dismal December that included numerous cancellations. United's rate of customer complaints was second-worst, ahead of only US Airways, according to DOT.
American and United both trimmed flights from their schedules last year because oil prices ran costs so high. Both carriers flew with most of their seats filled -- American's load factor -- the percentage of seats filled -- was 81.5% last year and United's was 82.7%. Passengers paid higher ticket prices, too, with American's yield, or average price paid to fly one mile, up 2.8% and United's up 6.6%. Earnings were better in 2007 than the year before for both companies, but the profits are still small by most any other industry's standards. American's profit margin was an anemic 2.2% and United's only 2.0%.
Higher oil prices have extracted a heavy toll on U.S. airlines and on their customers. The good news is that they have been able to fly through so much adversity. The bad news is it's been a bumpy ride -- and there is likely more to come.
Write to Scott McCartney at [email protected]
 
Yep....

That Tool warehouse is probably steaming from his ears trying to rationalize how any airline could possibly do better than his.

What gifted mgmt, what a strong (ha) balance sheet, what awesome routes! Oh gen, there is no possibilty that you are hosed out of first place is there?

-What a freaking Chuckemonkey!
 
Like I said,"SWA RULES!!!"

Cya
 
Earnings stated along with $1.8 billion in stock buyback over the last 2 yrs (that should take care of the hedging crybabies). Not too shabby SWA.
 
I wouldn't be bragging too much given the fact that without fuel hedges it would have been a loss and fuel prices continue to climb. Hedges cant be had for $30/$40/$50 a barrel anymore.

"And in terms of profits, Southwest's net income came entirely from smartly playing the fuel-hedging futures markets, not flying passengers. The airline earned $645 million last year -- after $727 million in cash gains on fuel contracts bought in commodities markets back when oil prices were much lower."

To put this in perspective Southwest would have made alot more money without the planes.....instead have just a couple guys sittin in a dark room with computers makin trades.
 
$1.8 Billion buyback in two years, and the stock is down about -33% in last 19 months.
 
120%

That is not how the hedges work. They are an integrated part of our business plan. Saying "without fuel hedges it would have been a loss" is like saying "if Tiger couldn't hit the ball he would be a lousy golfer".

Comments like yours can be found on threads at least as far back as 2001 (if the threads are still there). At that time our current hedges did not exist (a would have seemed really expensive!).

With regard to your last comment, what would happen if fuel prices went down?
 
Hedges are plainly a way SWA predicts future cost to price their product. Of course this has been pointed out over and over again but some it doesn't register.

If SWA didn't have hedges they would price their product higher.

Yes they do have that kind of pricing power and its consolidating the industry.
 
Pricing power dies when SWA fares are routinely the same or higher than other LCC's and Legacies. The market takes some time to adjust for $100 plus/barrel. If in six months it is still there or higher and stays up or near there, the oil futures will adjust up accordingly, essentially removing SWA's ability to hedge at the lower cost per barrel. And yes I realize hedges are just investments in future oil prices to offset higher prices should they occur. It works well as long as oil bounces down below 60 or 70 from time to time and thats when SWA uses its healthy balance sheet and cash to lock in. It is nothing more than an investors game. Its not the oil/gas that goes in the planes. To be sure oil had never been as high as it has been now. If it stays or creeps higher SWA loses its advantage. Spin all you want. These are the facts. I am not thrilled about 100/barrel oil but it will even the playing field....southwest wont be offering as many $29 flights, that is for certain.
 
Sedona,
Actually, if oil stays or creeps higher our hedging advantage grows. If oil goes lower we make more with our operation. This is what it means to hedge. Look at our hedging and operational performance over the last decade. This is not spin, just facts.

The price of oil fluctuates. To paint a scenario where it doesn't is to ignore market behavior. The futures price is even more volatile. This exact conversation plays out every time SWA announces a profit. Yet somehow the next quarter, year whatever .... the hedges are still there.

http://forums.flightinfo.com/showthread.php?t=92247&page=2&highlight=swa+profit

http://forums.flightinfo.com/showthread.php?t=97179&highlight=swa+profit

http://forums.flightinfo.com/showthread.php?t=104592&highlight=swa+profit

http://forums.flightinfo.com/showthread.php?t=108175&highlight=swa+profit

In everyone of these threads someone predicts the end of SWA's fuel hedge advantage. One of these threads go back to 2004. If oil climbs the current thread will join this list.

The only way SWA losses if fuel hedge advantage is if the price of oil falls. When this happens our profit will come from something else - can you guess what that might be?
 
Hedges are plainly a way SWA predicts future cost to price their product. Of course this has been pointed out over and over again but some it doesn't register.

If SWA didn't have hedges they would price their product higher.

Yes they do have that kind of pricing power and its consolidating the industry.


Uhh, no they wouldn't and thinking you do vs actually being able to is not the same thing. Sure, anyone could, but to sustain it is not dealing in reality. See SWA's latest attempt to garner market share with $29 fares in select cities. The only reason you do this is to bring paxs back that are flying other airlines. Even with fuel hedges, this is not a profitable operation. It may have been in 1999, but the landscape has changed.

Consolidation may occur for one reason and one reason only.......money to be made by a few hundred select individuals. Has absolutely nothing to do with any airline.
 
I think SWA is a very well run airline, but I hope everyone knows that the majority of their hedges came from that idiot Don Carty selling them from AMR.
 

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