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SWA merger talks

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R

roughneck

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 28, 2002
Posts
558
Every so often rumors come and go about a buyout or merger. The rumors have been flying as of lately. They appear to be coming from some credible sources too.

The favorite is either Alaska or Airtran with an occasional Frontier being thrown in. Rumor has it we will have several big announcements in the next 6 months or so with the biggest being by the end of this month. (maybe at our 500th aircraft party)

How many pilots/aircraft does Alaska/Air Tran/Frontier have, who represents them, and what international destinations do they fly?

BTW, SWA will announce an international codeshare in the next 3 months. (That one in not rumor, fact)
 
AirTran has 1520 pilots . . . . 10 of them are happy with the TA. One of them is named Rico. He's the happiest. You'll love him.:rolleyes:

.
 
I LUV rumors............Gives us something to talk about! I heard from some credible sources that we were going to buy Delta so General Lee can have his LBB overnights.
 
Red Baron said:
I LUV rumors............Gives us something to talk about! I heard from some credible sources that we were going to buy Delta so General Lee can have his LBB overnights.
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won't happen, but I have always thought a SW/DL merger would work out quite well.

Oh, and I lived in LBB for three years. Would be happy to layover there:)
 
There is always a rumor. My favorite is the "you'll remember where you were on (insert date) - this is gonna be HUGE!" Last time there was a "big" announcement it was that we were opening RSW.
 
There is no way AMR will let LUV by Alaska! We have 1500+ Fly all of Mexico almost all major cities in Western Canada and now to the Islands. What would LUV do with 400's 800's and 900's? I guess we will see.
 
I would guess the big announcement would be they are canceling their 737 700 orders for domestic and going with the 737 700ER and starting trips to Europe. That's probably why they are holding onto those unprofitable routes in the east. This is the next logical step for SW to ease the shareholders, if they don't do this, management may find themselves out of a job.
 
canceling their 737 700 orders for domestic and going with the 737 700ER and starting trips to Europe.

No you are talkin.
 
momalley81 said:
Could you tell us what those unprofitable routes are? I would be curious to know since SWA doesn't release that type of information.
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There's been a couple of analyst studies.

I don't think it would be to hard to guess, all the information is publically available.

CASM's are made available from SWA, if averages aren't close enough for your purposes the fuel cost, pilot cost, fa cost is public information. The operating/mx cost of a 737 is very well known. SWA has to report to various agencies (DOT, Airports) number of flights, number of passengers. Fares are public info.

It would take a bit of work but all the numbers are out there, it's just a matter of piecing them together.

In any case, if you are working the numbers in a particular business long enough...you just know. Because I grew up in the convinience store business - If I walk into a convinience store a couple of times in a week I can tell you what that convinience store does in monthly sales, call a real estate agent to find out retail rents, call city hall and find out applicable taxes/fees, call suppliers to figure out what the stores margins are, call the power company find out how much electricity cost -- I'd bet pay checks that I could get you within 10% of the stores net profits without ever looking at the owners books - ex owners salaries. Even more information is available from a publically traded airline.

Later,
 
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I doubt there will be any huge SWA merger with another airline. They dont need to acquire frontier, airtrain, midwest, alaska, etc. They need int'l(overseas) markets. At most youll see code-sharing with a major airline so that they have some international exposure.
 
Heard RUMOR about code share with DAL. Who knows but Gary and Herb? Alaska fits, Air Tran fits. Really, though, we'll know when an announcement is made. It's got to be something since the guys in the GO can't sit around and pat themselves on the back anymore with the hedges while remaining defensive. Unfortunately, we have to act like the 800lb gorilla that we are and let the chips fall where they may.
 
I think my rear end will be just as sore as when American took over TWA. I still need a donut to sit down on....
 
igneousy2 said:
There's been a couple of analyst studies.

I don't think it would be to hard to guess, all the information is publically available.

CASM's are made available from SWA, if averages aren't close enough for your purposes the fuel cost, pilot cost, fa cost is public information. The operating/mx cost of a 737 is very well known. SWA has to report to various agencies (DOT, Airports) number of flights, number of passengers. Fares are public info.

It would take a bit of work but all the numbers are out there, it's just a matter of piecing them together.

In any case, if you are working the numbers in a particular business long enough...you just know. Because I grew up in the convinience store business - If I walk into a convinience store a couple of times in a week I can tell you what that convinience store does in monthly sales, call a real estate agent to find out retail rents, call city hall and find out applicable taxes/fees, call suppliers to figure out what the stores margins are, call the power company find out how much electricity cost -- I'd bet pay checks that I could get you within 10% of the stores net profits without ever looking at the owners books - ex owners salaries. Even more information is available from a publically traded airline.

Later,
Click to expand...

You're right, but that's ALOT of work, and I doubt YPF has done it.
 
Skyboy722 said:
You're right, but that's ALOT of work, and I doubt YPF has done it.
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I read the analyst report when SW was downgraded, GK opened his mouth about stopping growth and pursuing other options and the stock is turning around. He also said that had he of known gas was going to be this high he would not have allowed such high pay rates. Interesting, considering when they were agreed on, they were substandard compared to the rest of the field.
 
When we bought Morris, they got stapled but pay protected, not too bad of a deal if your the one being bought out. It probably will be a raise for a lot of guys if it were airtran or any of the above mentioned.
 
Falcon Jet 1 said:
When we bought Morris, they got stapled but pay protected, not too bad of a deal if your the one being bought out. It probably will be a raise for a lot of guys if it were airtran or any of the above mentioned.
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If it happened, how quickly would Air Tran's 717s be phased out to ensure the "one-fleet" strategy? Would the 717 and 737 FOs be required to get 737 types to qualify or would SWA pay for all of the conversions? A lot of questions if that happens... I think Alaska would be easier once the last MD80s are phased out (soon I believe) because you wouldn't have to dump 70+ airplanes to maintain your core operational strategy.
 
YourPilotFriend said:
I He also said that had he of known gas was going to be this high he would not have allowed such high pay rates. Interesting, considering when they were agreed on, they were substandard compared to the rest of the field.
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My guess is that he is refering to the FA pay rates seeing how the pilot rates were established when he was in charge of fuel hedging.
 
YourPilotFriend said:
He also said that had he of known gas was going to be this high he would not have allowed such high pay rates. Interesting, considering when they were agreed on, they were substandard compared to the rest of the field.
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Also interesting in that Gary wasn't the CEO when this contract extension was voted on by the pilots.
 
Perhaps...

SWA recognizes that the time has come to accept a second aircraft type in order to gain significant growth quickly. They can target AAI 717s to specific markets with the thought that they will eventually replace them with new 737s or a 737 follow-on.
I'll gladly take a staple job to the SWA list... but I'm still just an FO.
 
When you already have so many airplanes on order, why add the same type, or smaller, when there is already excess capacity?

If SWA is going to buy anyone, it will be someone with reach. They don't need domestic help. (pardon the pun) Watch for fragmentation of some other airline(s) and see what SWA does then.
 
HalinTexas said:
If SWA is going to buy anyone, it will be someone with reach. They don't need domestic help. (pardon the pun) Watch for fragmentation of some other airline(s) and see what SWA does then.
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Oh, I would think AAI would be pretty attractive . . . ATL is a desirable, but heretofore inpenetrable, market (due to gate space). AAI has DCA slots, LGA slots (which I wouldn't have thought SWA was interested in, until they went in to PHL). Plus, they'd reduce competition in BWI, MCO and PHL, to name a few.

The only thing holding AAI back right now is our corporate culture. If they ever learned to motivate the troops like SWA, we'd be unstoppable. Right now, though, it's looking like Eastern merged with Taco Bell around here.

.
 
Ty Webb said:
The only thing holding AAI back right now is our corporate culture. If they ever learned to motivate the troops like SWA, we'd be unstoppable. Right now, though, it's looking like Eastern merged with Taco Bell around here.

.
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LMAO. I was thinking Wnedys or Burger King...
 

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