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SWA loads slip

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HighSpeedClimb

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Joined
Jan 25, 2006
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[SIZE=+2]Southwest's load factor slips 12:46 PM CDT

[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]12:47 PM CDT on Wednesday, May 2, 2007

[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]By TERRY MAXON / The Dallas Morning News
[email protected]
[/SIZE] The passenger loads on Southwest Airlines Co. flights in April were down more than four percentage points from a year earlier, and the results helped prompt one Wall Street analyst today to lower his ratings on the Dallas-based carrier.
Analyst Ray Neidl of Calyon Securities cut its earnings estimates for Southwest for the second quarter and for all of 2007 and 2008, and reduced his buying recommendation to “neutral” from “add.”
“April traffic numbers were disappointing for [Southwest],” Mr. Neidl wrote in a report, “and despite a relatively strong domestic demand environment, we do not believe that the aggressive growth rate that the company is pursuing can be achieved given tougher competition in the form of revitalized legacy carriers, bigger LCC [low-cost] carrier competition and ever-increasing fuel costs.”
Southwest reported that its load factor, or percentage of seats filled with paying passengers, dropped from 76.7 percent in April 2006 to 72.3 percent last month. Its traffic increased 3.3 percent, while the carrier expanded its April capacity by 9.6 percent over the 2006 period.
American Airlines Inc., the world’s largest carrier, said it carried less traffic last month, but its airplanes were a bit fuller, with 82.1 percent of seats filled. That’s up 0.4 percentage points from April 2006.
Fort Worth-based American said its traffic declined 3.3 percent on a 3.7 percent decrease in capacity. Its regional unit, American Eagle Airlines, said its traffic fell 2.6 percent on a 2.4 percent cut in capacity. American Eagle’s load factor was down 0.2 points to 74.2 percent.
AirTran Airways, said Wednesday its load factor dropped two percentage points, going from 78.8 percent in April 2006 to 76.8 percent last month. It increased its traffic 18.5 percent on a 21.5 percent increase in capacity.
Monday evening, Continental Airlines Inc. had reported that its April traffic increased 5.8 percent on a 5.9 percent increase in capacity. Its load factor dropped 0.2 percentage points, from 82.9 percent in last April to 82.7 percent this year.
Continental estimated that its unit revenues increased 0.5 to 1.5 percent in April, slightly less when its regional operations were included.
Continental said it “reiterated its guidance that demand remains strong and, based on its advanced booking outlook, the company expects load factors for the second quarter to keep pace with last year's record levels.” Continental had reported second quarter 2006 load factors of 82.9 percent, or 82.7 percent including its regional operations.
 
analysts!

[SIZE=+2]Southwest's load factor slips 12:46 PM CDT[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]12:47 PM CDT on Wednesday, May 2, 2007[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]By TERRY MAXON / The Dallas Morning News[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1][email protected][/SIZE] The passenger loads on Southwest Airlines Co. flights in April were down more than four percentage points from a year earlier, and the results helped prompt one Wall Street analyst today to lower his ratings on the Dallas-based carrier.

The sky is falling, they sky is falling!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


737
 
I don't think a drop in load factor is a big deal as long as you are adding capacity. This from someone a lot smarter than me.
 
Good maybe our stock will go up to 45 bucks a share, now that we are in trouble.
 
I don't think a drop in load factor is a big deal as long as you are adding capacity. This from someone a lot smarter than me.

It is a big deal if you're adding more capacity than you're adding customers and/or revenue.

A one month drop year over year is not that big deal.
 
To show I'm not partial, here is news on the others...

S&P Cuts UAL, AMR, US Airways, and Continental

UAL Corp. UAUA

Cuts to 2 STARS (sell) from 3 STARS (hold)

Analyst: Jim Corridore

We have become increasingly worried about weakening industry revenue trends and rising oil prices heading into the summer driving and hurricane season. Given our view of weakening fundamentals, we are less bullish on legacy airlines and UAL in particular. We think the company has higher costs than peers, and it operates in some domestic markets experiencing extreme price pressure. We are cutting our 2007 earnings per share (EPS) estimate to $2.50 from $3.00; and our 12-month target price to $24 from $40, 9.6 times our 2007 EPS estimate, and in line with peers. We view the shares as high risk.


AMR Corp. AMR

Cuts to 3 STARS (hold) from 4 STARS (buy)

Analyst: Jim Corridore

We are cutting our 2007 EPS estimate to $3.57 from $4.45 and our 12-month target price to $32 from $45, valuing the shares at about 9 times our 2007 EPS estimate, in the middle of AMR's historical price-to-earnings range during past periods of profitability. Given our view of weakening industry revenue trends at a time when oil has recently risen sharply and when we are entering hurricane and summer driving season, we think industry and company fundamentals no longer support a buy recommendation. We categorize the shares as high risk and expect them to remain volatile.


US Airways Group LCC

Cuts To 3 STARS (hold) from 5 STARS (strong buy)

Analyst: Jim Corridore

Our sentiment on the airline industry and on US Airways shares has become less bullish given weakening industry revenue trends and a sharp rise in oil prices heading into the hurricane and summer driving seasons, which could see oil prices retrace record highs. US Airways shares have already reacted to much of this news, but we see little positive catalysts in the coming weeks, and much risk related to oil and weaker industry fundamentals. We are cutting our 2007 EPS estimate to $6.00 from $7.50; and our 12-month target price to $37 from $68, well below peers at about 6 times our 2007 EPS estimate.


Continental Airlines CAL

Cuts to 3 STARS (hold) from 5 STARS (strong buy)

Analyst: Jim Corridore

Continental April traffic statistics show a drop in loads and weaker unit revenues than we were expecting. This, coupled with general weakness in March industry revenues and higher oil over the past few months has changed our view of the industry's fundamentals and the stock's attractiveness. We are cutting our 2007 EPS estimate to $4.50 from $5.90, and our 12-month target price to $40 from $65. Our target price values the shares at about 8.9 times our 2007 EPS estimate, below peers and towards the low end of Continental's historical valuation range. The shares are categorized as high risk.
 
yeah, but!

Southwest Airlines April Traffic Rises
Wednesday May 2, 9:53 am ET Southwest Airlines April Traffic Up 3.3 Percent; Carrier Boards More People, Flies More Trips

DALLAS (AP) -- Southwest Airlines Co. said Wednesday its passenger traffic in April rose 3.3 percent, as it boarded more customers and flew more trips. Southwest Airlines monthly traffic increased to 5.92 billion revenue passenger miles from 5.73 billion revenue passenger miles during the same period last year. A revenue passenger mile is equal to one paying passenger flown one mile.
Capacity grew 9.6 percent to 8.19 billion available seat miles from 7.47 billion available seat miles last year. Load factor, or occupancy, fell to 72.3 percent from 76.7 percent.

The airline said its number of enplaned passengers rose 3.7 percent in the period, while its average length of haul edged down 1 percent and trips flown rose 8 percent.
Year to date, Southwest Airlines traffic is up 4.8 percent to 22.03 billion revenue passenger miles, capacity is up 7.8 percent to 31.87 billion available seat miles, and load factor is down to 69.1 percent from 71.1 percent. Shares of Southwest Airlines lost a penny to $14.25 in morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Earlier, shares hit a new 52-week low of $14.14. Their previous low of $14.15 was set on Tuesday.
 

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