SWA hiring in '04...Will it happen?

[FlyBoeingJets]

I'm wondering if the numbers being thrown about for '04 (450) are really valid.

Southwest hired 140ish, I think, in the first 4 months of '03. But Southwest will have received 5-10 extra planes the last quarter of '03 and have firm orders for 2 aircraft (net of retirements) in the first quarter '04. Yet the start of the next training cycle may be delayed until Feb????

I know, the extra flying will be absorbed by current pilots and those coming back from military leave. But how long can Southwest do that with mil leave #s at about 60-70?

My question is how efficient is Southwest's use of reserve pilots, and those flying overtime, right now? In your opinion, can you absorb another few percentage points of "productivity enhancement" to delay hiring further?

With about 380 aircraft I know the extra 7-12 aircraft between now and Mar '04 are only 2-4% of the total. What's to prevent Southwest from absorbing the other 23 next year with substantially less than 450 new hires in '04? I can see as little as 100 new hires instead of 450.

Go ahead, blast me for not being crazy optimistic but I'm only trying to analyze the situation. I really am not intending on causing anyone discomfort.

 

[ivauir]

The weekend reserves seem to be flying a lot (I beat the guarantee last month) but open time during the week is getting scarce. I am not sure what this means other than weekend reserve blows - but my guess is that it means the manning level is close to the right level. The fact remains that new planes are comming and almost 120 dudes are retiring next year ... I think PHX FO could absorb a little growth, but we are losing 10 FOs in the November vacancy bid ... I think that'll make it tight.

 

[Snoopy58]

The balance between FO's and Captains isn't constant... since the captains pretty much all have more vacation than the FO's, crew planning will increase the # of captains in high-vacation months & decrease it during low-vacation months. Also, as the routes & frequencies change, bases will expand or contract. So, even without growth or retirements there are several factors that can influence the numbers in vacancy bids. Also, some bases just run tighter than others on reserve usage... commuter bases use reserves more because they have less open time pickup; bases where most guys live close by are the opposite.

As to the previous question, I don't get the sense that the system is particularly maxed out right now; in addition to reserve utilization, there's JA and VJA rates, which (as I understand it) aren't particularly high right now. Not that anybody wants to see them waiting until everybody is getting JAed left & right before they start adding people, but there is that additional "give" in the system.

I don't have definitive answers, but my sense is that we're far from maxed out in terms of pilot utilization. If they can hold off on a new class until the new procedures are in place, my suspicion is that they will. Learning the flows is work enough without having to learn all new flows halfway through class!

JM2CW!

Snoopy

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

I forgot to consider retirements in my highly unscientific calculation. Looks like my most pessimistic guesstimate is up to over 200.

Thanks for the replies.

 

[EMBATP]

just came from DCA air inc. conference. southwest recruiter said 400 + next year...

 

[N1atEcon]

This from the Director of Training in Dallas:

400 plus in 04
600 plus in 05 and 06

Training dept was asked if could they do 1000 if they had to. (Lots of deals out there these days). Answer was "No Way".

 

[OPIE01]

Where did the 1000 newguys come from?

I was told from a reliable source that the Question to the Training department about training 1000 pilots in one year came about for the following reason.

"As the LUV stoct price reaches $20 per share, the SWA crystal ball is telling the People department that there are about 500+ SWA pilots that are age 50 and older on top of the 100 already scheduled to retire in 04 that can 'Call in Rich' if the price hits $20."

"500 (age 50+) plus 100 (almost age 60) plus 400 newbees = 1000 pilot to be trained.

 

[PSL]

OPIE01:

If SWA (GO) undermined the stock price, they would have violated their fudiciary responsibility to their shareholders.

If we had a mass exodus of captains as the stock approached $20 something ... you can rest assured that the training department would rise to the occasion, even if that meant training off site.

Any suggestion that our management would act in opposition to our shareholders' (short and long term) best interest is ridiculous. You would destroy a reputation that has been maintained for 30+ years.

 

[OPIE01]

I'm sorry, maybe I misunderstood the dude

I'm sorry if I offended you and everyone at SWA. I guess I misunderstood what the dude said.

I am sure SWA wouldn't do anything illegal and I am sorry that you think I was infering that.

 

[thebluto]

QUESTION FOR FlyBoeingJets

FlyBoeingJets:
Are you considering leaving ATA for SWA?

Don't they have a $12,000 contract on you for training if you leave prior to 2 years?

Would you have to pay anything back, or is your commitment over?

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

I like ATA too much to leave voluntarily. However, I got the pants scared off of me when I saw stories about the lease/debt payments coming due. 1.4 billion over 3 years. I started doing new job research after that, just in case.

Lately, the news has been brighter. ATA has pushed delivery of some 737's out a year and the cash crunch is being handled. I believe the debt/lease payments are being restructured. In fact, some used 757's will join our fleet in '04 (probably 5).

Yes there is still a contract at ATA. $24,000 over 2 years. Every month you are there you owe 2K less if you leave. I think it is better than a low payscale the first year or two to account for those who hop around.


Why do I ask Southwest Questions?? I am addicted to flightinfo.com and hate daytime television.

 

[CoopDog]

Might as well face it.....

Why do I ask Southwest Questions?? I am addicted to flightinfo.com and hate daytime television.

Whew.....I'm glad I'm not the only one. But I also think night-time television sucks too. At least there have been a few good dramas on this week though: Cubs, Red Sox, and that MNF game! Gees, I gave up and went and took a shower with a 21 pt. lead.....come back still drying off, and it's tied. Holy Cow! Now that's good tv.

Coop

And let's not forget that great Browns-Steelers game the other night. Can't wait for the sequel.

And btw, aren't those SWA commercials just the best?

 

[AJWick]

Those commercials would've meant more if SWA were to fly to PIT and the Steelers came back to win.

Go Steelers Go SWA.

aj

 

[CoopDog]

PIT could be on the horizon.....

Airlines Clash on How to Draw Passengers
Source: The Dallas Morning News
Publication date: 2003-10-07


Oct. 7--NASHVILLE, Tenn.The nation's airlines are competing for pieces of a smaller travel pie now that the industry's worst financial crisis seems to have passed.
But the carriers don't agree on the best way to get passengers aboard their planes, and they aired those differences Monday at the Eighth Annual Aviation Forecast Conference in Nashville.

In one corner was Continental Airlines Inc. chief Gordon Bethune, who ticked off a list of new services his carrier will offer its best customers in hopes they'll pay higher fares to fly the Houston-based carrier.

The perks include a "no-middle-seat" guarantee, a priority line for boarding and special tags that get the best customers' luggage to baggage claims ahead of everyone else's.

Southwest Airlines Co.'s John Jamotta agreed that fliers want more service but said they won't pay more for it. That's why, he said, Southwest has adopted its "more services for less money" strategy.

"We believe ... [it] will inherit the airline industry," said Mr. Jamotta, the airline's director of schedule planning.

Airline industry revenues remain down about 20 percent and show little sign of improvement, said Michael Boyd of Boyd Group consulting firm, which is hosting the aviation conference.

Airline traffic will grow only negligibly in coming years, despite rosier forecasts by federal regulators, he said.

"The FAA says we're going to see 6 percent traffic growth, and they're just wrong," said Mr. Boyd, who predicted the growth rate will be no more than 2.7 percent annually over the next five years.

That forecast has carriers worried.

Mr. Bethune told the 150 or so aviation professionals gathered at the conference that his goal is to win as many high-profit business travelers as possible.

Those customers are essential for the profitability of any hub-and-spoke airline, he said.

"If any old dinosaur is going to survive, it's going to be the one based in Houston, Texas," Mr. Bethune said.

Southwest is preparing for aggressive growth in 2004 and 2005, Mr. Jamotta said.

The Dallas-based, low-fare carrier the only one to remain profitable since 9-11 will announce a new destination by year's end and will investigate filling in the gaps at airports that its competitors are leaving, he said.

He said Southwest sees opportunities in St. Louis, where Fort Worth-based American Airlines Inc. is cutting its hub in half, and in Pittsburgh, where US Airways Group Inc. is threatening to end its hub operations.

Florida, where Southwest operates dozens of daily flights, is another area where the carrier might expand, Mr. Jamotta said.

"I think we're just at the beginning of what we're going to do in Florida," he said.

The varying business models underscore the struggle between unprofitable large network carriers and the fast-growing herd of low-cost airlines.

Many big airlines don't seem worried about the upstarts, and that's a mistake, said analyst Jamie Baker of JP Morgan.

"Network airline management teams aren't doing nearly enough to combat the threat," Mr. Baker said. "The low-cost carriers are just cherry-picking the best routes right now."

Investors' bet That said, investors are betting that carriers such as American see better revenue results as the economy gains speed. The market will favor the "old and infirm" carriers because their results will start to look a lot better, Mr. Baker said.

Airlines begin reporting third-quarter earnings next week.

American's parent company, AMR Corp., may break even for the first time in three years, Mr. Baker said, but he's concerned that the company's crushing, $20-billion-plus debt load will keep the bankruptcy option alive.

-----

 

[flying@swa]

2004 hiring rumors....

the "standard" rumor from.... "a captain who just came back from his PC/PT/EPT where a chief pilot came in and briefed us..... 400+ pilots, a new class every 2 weeks for the forseeable future". Starting in either Jan OR Feb. '04.

Keep in mind that we have released to the public that we will take delivery of approx. 40+ NEW planes next year, minus 12 or so -200 retirements.

Recently heard that Herb & crew are in talks w/ Boeing for an additional 10-12 NEW planes for 2004 as well..... look back over the last 3-4 months of SWA press releases and see all of the new "connect the dots" routes that have been added.... more of that to come.... add to the mix a couple of new cities & STRONG possibility of a new pilot base..... we will be hiring bodies to fill these seats.

There is a F/A class starting this week... 200+ in the class.... rumor sez another class of 200+ in Nov.

Also - COO recently quoted as SWA returning to our "normal" 10% annual growth rate = 39 planes in '04 & 45+ish in '05.

This company has been sitting on the side lines for 2+ years.... waiting, watching.... planning?? IMHO I think the time has come for a major pounce into another growth spurt - a la 1994-2000 when little 'ole SWA doubled its size....... who knows!?!? it COULD happen!?!?!?

STranger things have happened.....