Analysts say move could finish off US Airways
Thursday, January 06, 2005
By Dan Fitzpatrick, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Southwest Airlines' decision to fly from Pittsburgh could deliver the long-predicted kill shot finishing off
US Airways.
http://www.post-gazette.com/popup.a....com/images3/20050106sm_swest_modelPJ_450.jpgThe nation's seventh-largest airline already is reeling from a series of unfortunate events: its second bankruptcy, high oil prices, an escalating fare war and a Christmas holiday travel disaster that stranded thousands of customers and misplaced untold numbers of bags.
It is under heavy attack from in Philadelphia, its largest hub, where Southwest started service last spring. That move prompted US Airways to ask its unions for another $1 billion in contract concessions and led to a warning from former US Airways Chief Executive David Siegel that Southwest was "coming to kill us."
By grabbing a share of Pittsburgh, analysts said yesterday, low-fare Southwest is trying to finish what it started in Philadelphia. "There is a weak guy bleeding in the water, and the sharks are circling," said Ray Neidl, a New York airline analyst.
Southwest may like to portray itself as folksy and fun-loving, but deep down, it is "ruthless," said Standard and Poor's analyst Betsy Snyder. "They kind of smell blood" and "go in for the kill," she said.
America West Airlines co-founder Michael Roach predicted the competition from a low-fare carrier will bring on the "total destruction" of US Airways' Pittsburgh operation, which now includes 229 flights a day. "You can anticipate Southwest will take Pittsburgh completely away from them," he said.
US Airways and Southwest have clashed before. But "every time they have met on the battlefield, Southwest has emerged totally victorious," Roach said. "Southwest has eliminated them."
First it was on the West Coast, where US Airways spent $385 million buying California carrier Pacific Southwest Airlines in the late 1980s and then abandoned PSA's routes in the 1990s.
While other carriers may have contributed to US Airways' West Coast exit, Southwest's low pricing made it difficult to compete there, according to former US Airways executive Randall Malin, who admitted in 1991 that the airline "miscalculated. ... In retrospect, perhaps we should have known that Southwest would come into the California market and trash the pricing structure. Southwest's cost advantage was overwhelming."
US Airways predicted throughout the 1990s that Southwest would expand its operations to the Northeast, where US Airways is strongest. Executives knew US Airways' industry-high operating costs had to come down if it were to have a chance at competing head-to-head with Southwest, which is able to charge low fares because its costs are so low.
And it moved to try and address those cost issues. US Airways streamlined its fleet, paring down the types of planes it flies. It spread out connecting flights at its hub airports to avoid delays in case of backups or weather troubles during peak periods. And it reached concessionary pacts with its unions that still promised compensation that was higher than the average at the four biggest airlines.
But after all that, US Airways' costs remained the industry's highest, at slightly above 10 cents per seat per mile flown, excluding fuel -- or 4 cents above the average at Southwest. The latter, despite being unionized, has kept its costs down by flying a single type of aircraft and relying primarily on point-to-point flying between cities instead of connecting flights, speeding turnaround times.
Despite US Airways' warnings about the looming Southwest threat, it was caught flat-footed when Southwest launched service in 1993 in Baltimore, which was considered a small, fourth hub for US Airways and where the carrier accounted for nearly 55 percent of traffic. In less than a decade, US Airways' share of traffic there had fallen to 6 percent, compared with Southwest's 47 percent.
US Airways was caught off guard again when Southwest picked Philadelphia, thinking Southwest would go to nearby Allentown instead. The dramatic move forced US Airways to rethink its business plan and go back to its unions for more concessions, arguing that it needed to become more like Southwest to compete with it.
Yesterday, when asked about Southwest's move into Pittsburgh, airline spokesman David Castelveter did not mention the airline by name but instead said that "low-fare growth in Pittsburgh, just like other cities in the U.S., was not unexpected and further underscores the importance of us establishing a cost structure comparable to that of our low-cost competitors."
But Roach believes it may be too late for US Airways to change and survive. The Pittsburgh announcement indicates to Roach that US Airways is "losing the battle for Philadelphia" and "suggests that [Southwest] does not view US Airways as a formidable opponent. I assume [US Airways] will be wiped out in Philadelphia."
Some analysts are doubtful that US Airways can last another few months, even with concessions from unions. Colorado aviation consultant Mike Boyd argued that Southwest wants to start its Pittsburgh service in May because it believes that US Airways will be out of business by then.
But Southwest Chief Executive Officer Gary Kelly yesterday played down the US Airways factor, saying that the carrier picked Pittsburgh not because of US Airways' weaknesses but because the market is overpriced and under-served. "It just so happens the carrier there is in bankruptcy," he said. But when asked if Southwest would consider Charlotte, N.C., another US Airways stronghold, as a site of future expansion, Kelly admitted that he would. "I don't think we want to rule out anything, " he said.