SWA April takes a nosedive

[lowecur]

This is disturbing news. RPMs up 2.5% with LF down 7pts. Conversely, AWA RPMs up 7.3% with LF up 3.5 pts. You think the FF rule adjustment had something to do with this? Available seat miles up 13%, definitly hurt. Too many new planes and no place to put them. Growth needs to be reined in. Adjustments need to be made quickly, or this trend could send the stock price in a free fall.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050503/latu048.html?.v=9

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050503/datu026.html?.v=7

 

[juan2go]

Hey, wasn't Easter in April last year? Just a thought.

My God, lookout! The sky is falling!

 

[PSL]

Lowecur

Gosh ... I'm sure glad we have such an insightful analyst like you deciding on our business plan. Now I understand why others on this board throw darts at you.

Did you consider the fact that we might be readying ourselves to take advantage of an industry consolidation and / or realignment?

Do you have any idea how much freight we carry ?

There are some routes that I fly regularly that we take 1500 lbs of US Mail and 2000+ lbs of 'seafood' or computers ... The passenger's contributions to our profitability is 'gravy' ... the flight is profitable without boarding one passenger.

I sleep very well at night knowing our management team is in charge.

I'll forward your comments to our leadership for consideration ...

 

[lowecur]

Hey, wasn't Easter in April last year? Just a thought.

My God, lookout! The sky is falling!

I guess the AWA numbers are an anomaly. If the US Airways deal turns positive, I would look for retirement of some older a/c to adjust with demand.

 

[lowecur]

Lowecur

Do you have any idea how much freight we carry ? No.

There are some routes that I fly regularly that we take 1500 lbs of US Mail and 2000+ lbs of 'seafood' or computers ... The passenger's contributions to our profitability is 'gravy' ... the flight is profitable without boarding one passenger. That's really quite a trick. Hopefully, you'll continue to fly and not take up mgt.

I sleep very well at night knowing our management team is in charge. So do I.

I'll forward your comments to our leadership for consideration ...

Herb thinks I'm a twit.

 

[apdsm]

Too many new planes and no place to put them. Growth needs to be reined in. Adjustments need to be made quickly, or this trend could send the stock price in a free fall.

Another SPOT ON analysis from the insurance guy...

 

[LJDRVR]

Guys,

Why even encourage the child by responding to his posts?

• He's not a pilot or even involved with the industry. (Other than owning stock)
• His rantings and predictions are almost always proven way off-kilter
• He's a liar, who has posted under othe screen names claiming to be things he's not. (A SWA pilot for instance) The moderators have banned his alter-egos, but for some reason allow him to still post. (Entertainment value?)

This person has little constructive to say. I think I've seen one post of his that actually hit the mark. The remainder of his drivel is part flame-bait and all amateur executive/boyd group wannabe garbage.

Maybe it's just an internet forum and I should lighten up, but a liar is a liar.

Hey lowecur, do we come over to the insurance industry forums and tell you folks how your business works? Do our posts there reflect an air of all-encompassing knowledge where we attempt to pass ourselves off as more knowledgable and in possesion of better market instincts than the executives of the most successful and profitable underwriter in existance?

 

[On Your Six]

Another SPOT ON analysis from the insurance guy...

Now that's funny!!!!!

 

[lowecur]

Guys,

Why even encourage the moron by responding to his posts? You should follow your own advice.

• He's not a pilot or even involved with the industry. (Other than owning stock) How do you know?
• His rantings and predictions are almost always proven way off-kilter I get a few right.
• He's a liar ouch!, who has posted under othe screen names claiming to be things he's not. (A SWA pilot for instance) I guess you have inside information, huh? The moderators have banned his alter-egos, but for some reason allow him to still post. (Entertainment value?) It's called discussion jack. So, I guess you have no counterpoint?
• This person has little constructive to say. I think I've seen one post of his that actually hit the mark. I'm curious, which one? The remainder of his drivel is part flame-bait and all amateur executive/boyd group wannabe garbage.

Maybe it's just an internet forum and I should lighten up, but a liar is a liar . They burned witches for supposition.

When you've got nothing to say, just change the thread subject, huh?

 

[LJDRVR]

...I would look for retirement of some older a/c to adjust with demand.

You are not doing anything! You work in the insurance industry. Doug Parker and his management team have things under control and nobody here cares what you think.

 

[CaptUnderpants]

Herb thinks I'm a twit.

Herb's a sharp guy.

 

[lowecur]

You are not doing anything! You work in the insurance industry. But I'm a liar, so how do you know where I work? Doug Parker and his management team have things under control and nobody here cares what you think.

I agree Doug Parker and his Mgt team have things under control. I'm more worried about Gary Kelly and his Mgt team.

 

[LJDRVR]

Bad JuJu at AIG!

http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/irol/global_images/spacer.gifAIG DELAYS FORM 10-K FILING TO COMPLETE REVIEWNEW YORK, Mar 30, 2005 -- American International Group, Inc. ("AIG") announced today that the filing of its 2004 Form 10-K will be delayed beyond the March 31, 2005 extended due date in order to provide AIG, its Board of Directors and its new management adequate time to complete their extensive review of AIG's books and records. The review includes issues arising from pending investigations into non-traditional insurance products and certain assumed reinsurance transactions by the Office of the Attorney General for the State of New York ("NYAG") and the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") and from AIG's decision to review the accounting treatment of certain additional items. AIG currently believes that it will be able to file its Form 10-K on or prior to April 30, 2005. AIG intends to seek relief from the SEC to allow the continued use of registration statements on Form S-3 following the filing of its Form 10-K, although there can be no assurance that relief will be granted.

This is disturbing news. Major investigations into accounting practices with the possibility of senior executives actions being reviewed by a grand jury. Do you think the NYAG or SEC will see this as routine corporate governance, or will it be viewed as an "Enronesque" attempt to circumvent standard accounting proceedures and disclosures by claiming routine corporate governance? Adjustments need to be made quickly, or this news could send the stock price in a free fall.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

This is the best piece of flame bait I've seen all day. Good luck getting us too excited.

 

[TexaSWA]

Southwest Airlines Reports April Traffic
Tuesday May 3, 8:00 am ET

DALLAS, May 3 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV - News) announced today that the Company flew 4.8 billion revenue passenger miles (RPMs) in April 2005, a 2.5 percent increase from the 4.7 billion RPMs flown in April 2004. Available seat miles (ASMs) increased 13.2 percent to 7.0 billion from the April 2004 level of 6.1 billion. The load factor for the month was 69.1 percent, compared to 76.2 percent for the same period last year.

For the four months ended April 30, 2005, Southwest flew 18.0 billion RPMs, compared to the 16.5 billion RPMs recorded for the same period of 2004, an increase of 9.5 percent. Available seat miles increased 10.9 percent to 27.2 billion from the 2004 level of 24.5 billion. The year-to-date load factor was 66.4 percent, compared to 67.2 percent for the same period last year. This release, as well as past news releases on Southwest, are available online at ...

So this means: 1. Revenue is up compared to this time last year. 2. We have increased capacity that we have yet to put to work.

I dont see your point.

 

[Hair-on-Fire]

He just posted a link to a news article and his opinion. Big deal. Why are you SW guys so sensitive? Let the man speak.

 

[SWAInflt]

Tough to compare April 05 with April 04. Not only did Easter fall within the month last year, April 04 ASM only rose 4.1%. Just like more planes and no holiday conspired to hurt LFs this year, the opposite bouyed last years numbers. Looking back the most recent year that mirrors this April's number is 2002. Easter fell on March 31. Even with an ASM increase of only 3.7%, LF was 66.3% for the month. This was a significant decrease over April 01 numbers...71% LF, +9.8% RPM and +12.8% ASM.

If I'm understanding the data correctly, if we had seen the same ASM numbers this year as we did in April 02, LF would have likely been in the mid to high 70s. No? April 02's numbers would seem to have been much more disturbing than April 05. At least this year we can point to increased capacity and an inconveniently placed holiday to explain the numbers. I'm still trying to wrap my brain around all this stuff so go easy if I'm interpreting the data incorrectly.

 

[ivauir]

Herb thinks I'm a twit.

Just when you think there is not even one thing Herb can do to get me to like him more ....

I'm more worried about Gary Kelly and his Mgt team.

Dude! Keep worrying. As I understand it you don't own any LUv - you should be very worried about GK.

 

[ivauir]

When you've got nothing to say, just change the thread subject, huh?

His rantings and predictions are almost always proven way off-kilter
I get a few right
Really? List em. Shoot list ONE that was meaningful, accurate, and not easily predicted by an 8 year old.

And to get back on topic; you were the one who pointed out when Easter fell (remeber when you were trying to pour water over our first quarter reults?), so ease up on the "nosedive" bit. Wait until you see May's numbers. 2005 is gonna be a banner year for us, but the really fantastic results are waiting until the end of the decade.

 

[lowecur]

Tough to compare April 05 with April 04. Not only did Easter fall within the month last year, April 04 ASM only rose 4.1%. Just like more planes and no holiday conspired to hurt LFs this year, the opposite bouyed last years numbers. Looking back the most recent year that mirrors this April's number is 2002. Easter fell on March 31. Even with an ASM increase of only 3.7%, LF was 66.3% for the month. This was a significant decrease over April 01 numbers...71% LF, +9.8% RPM and +12.8% ASM.

If I'm understanding the data correctly, if we had seen the same ASM numbers this year as we did in April 02, LF would have likely been in the mid to high 70s. No? April 02's numbers would seem to have been much more disturbing than April 05. At least this year we can point to increased capacity and an inconveniently placed holiday to explain the numbers. I'm still trying to wrap my brain around all this stuff so go easy if I'm interpreting the data incorrectly.

The numbers clearly point to too much capacity in the LUV system at this time. The question is can mgt adjust the route system to compensate the remainder of the year? PIT is coming on line and the UAIR deal will likely leave some openings to backfill some capacity on the East Coast. AWA seems to be taking business away from LUV on their West Coast routes, and with JBLU ramping up with the 190s at the end of the year, mgt has to ask itself if they are happy with their plan. Time will tell.