Survivor RJ

[heywatchthis]

This is a little old, but wholly heck you got to love the sarcasim.

From the Boyd Group.
http://www.aviationplanning.com/2005Archives.htm#The%20FAA:

[FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]The New Smash Hit of The Season![/FONT][FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]
[/FONT][FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]Survivor: RJ[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]You gotta get up and get tuned in early for this new version of Survivor. It's got all the necessary plots, sub-plots, and intrigues that you find on that moronic CBS show of the same name. [/FONT]

[FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]The Plot Line: Make Sure Your RJs Don't Get Parked. The latest version of this show's called Survivor:Regional Jet, and it focuses on a tribe of Small Jet Providers (again, what the lightweights in academia still call "regional airlines") all trapped on a small and slowly shrinking financial island. Each SJP player has a big fleet of RJs. Their major partners - the ones they lease planes and crews to - now know that they don't need all the RJs that are out there. The reality is that there are too many RJs in the system. Some of the SJPs stuck on the Island will get squeezed out. Only the smartest and most cunning will survive.[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]So the majors are playing the SJPs off against each other. And each SJP is plotting to make sure that its fleet of RJs stays flying, even if it means that one of their colleagues ends up out of the game. "Alliances" among SJPs, and between majors and SJPs, are negotiated, formed, and then promptly broken. Interactions between SJPs and majors involve secret negotiations, aimed at knocking other SJPs out of the game. It's high stakes, and the losers really are going to lose big.[/FONT]

[FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]Again, the goal of this version of Survivor is to end up with all your RJs still flying, and not out in the cold. Or, more correctly, the heat - in the Arizona desert, where the losers' fleets of small jets will likely end up.[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]Truly an interesting show to watch. Except this time, it's for real. Some of the participants in this game won't just get voted off the Island. They could well get voted out of business.[/FONT]

[FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]The Contestants. The main Survivor players at the present time are Mesa, Air Wisconsin, Independence Air, Skywest, and Midwest Connect. But in this version of Survivor, it's entirely possible that in future episodes other SJPs will show up on the Island, such as Pinnacle, Mesaba, G...O..Jett..., Trans-States, ExpressJet, Chautauqua, and even, in some form, wholly-owned SJPs from American, Delta, and US Airways. Anybody with a fleet of RJs is a contestant on Survivor: Regional Jet. Whether they want to be or not. [/FONT]

[FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]Let's recap the past episodes on Survivor: Regional Jet - [/FONT]

• [FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]Episode One - The First Strike: United, cleverly seeing a chance to slash SJP costs, broke its alliance with Air Wisconsin, and suddenly announced that it was re-bidding the contract. The strategy was simple: United assumed that Air Wis had nowhere to go with their 70 or so RJs, and would cave quickly. It was a critical challenge for Air Wisconsin, the outcome of which a lot of viewers assumed was a foregone conclusion.
  [/FONT]
• [FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]Episode Two - United's Squeeze Play Fails: But Air Wisconsin, in a bold stroke, and to United's surprise, maneuvered out from under the oppressive threat from their long time partner. Blowing off United, they cut a new alliance with US Airways. In exchange for a $125 million "investment," Air Wis could move its RJs into the US Airways system. Next stop: the airplane paint shops, where the United gray gets stripped off and replaced with US Airways' Darth Vader-esque black-like blue. Advantage for the moment: Air Wisconsin. The question at the end of the episode: is US Airways really a safe haven?
  [/FONT]
• [FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]Episode Three - Republic Horns In On Air Wisconsin: Then, Republic seeing a chance to offset the risks from its own alliance with United, copied the Air Wis strategy, offering to pay another $125 million to put more small jets at US Airways. For the moment, these two - Air Wis and Republic - are in the lead. End-of-episode question: Where does that leave Mesa, which has now-excess RJs at US Airways?
  [/FONT]
• [FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]Episode Four - Mesa In The Corner, Or The Catbird Seat? But these new alliances put Mesa, with 60 or so RJs at US Airways, in the odd-man out position. US Airways now no longer needs Mesa, and wants to dump that alliance. Things looked indeed bleak for the folks in Phoenix. But one thing that experienced viewers know is to never underestimate Mesa. And, true to form, Mesa did an end-run, crafting a new alliance with United to replace 30 of the AirWis airplanes. Next stop: the paint shops, where the US Airways livery is to be replaced by United colors. So far, the big winner seems to be Sherwin-Williams.
  [/FONT]
• [FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]Episode Five - Midwest Connect Gets Dis-Connected. But the United/Mesa alliance only involved about half of the Mesa RJs at US Airways. They still had about 30 more RJs that were otherwise heading for the sand dunes. On the surface, it was a dead end for Mesa. But, again, they found a rabbit in the hat. Down in Atlanta, there had been an alliance between Midwest Connect and Delta to operate 30 ex-Independence Air FRJs (Fairchild 328JETs) that Delta - for whatever reason - was on the line for. Suddenly, that deal got cancelled, and guess what? Mesa announces an alliance to fill those 30 RJ slots with its own RJs, in place of the Frog-Jets. End-of-episode cliff-hanger: where will those FRJs go?[/FONT]

[FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]In future episodes, we'll find the following exciting twists and turns in the Survivor: RJ plot:[/FONT]

• [FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]Who's going to get stuck with the 30+ Fairchild jets now made homeless by the Mesa/DL alliance? Is Wachovia Bank - which supposedly holds the paper on these contraptions - going to get the bionic financial winkie? Is there someone else that may have taken the planes off Delta's hands? Some foreign intrigue: Will Hainan Airlines - a Chinese 328 operator - arrive on the Island with relief supplies, i.e., a lease deal? And what about Midwest Connect, which was in the process of hiring and training pilots in anticipation of operating the 328s for Delta? Are they high and dry?
  [/FONT]
• [FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]Air Wis and Republic look safe for now. But what about the potential outcomes of an even larger alliance between US Airways and America West? Could that deal result in fewer mainline airplanes and more flying for the SJPs? But that would mean more high-cost RJs flying against low-cost carriers in the East. What if the US/HP deal collapses? Would the plug get pulled on US Airways? Could that mean an end to Air Wis and Republic?[/FONT]

• [FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]What about Skywest and Mesa? Both just upped their alliances with United, a carrier that's wallowing in Chapter 11 like a brontosaurus in a tar pit. UA employees are getting restless, and just one minor labor disruption at UA, and the jig's up. Neither SJP can lose sight of the outcome of the Air Wis alliance with United. Nothing is permanent.[/FONT]

• [FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]Then we have Independence Air, which has a business plan that seems to have been dreamed up by the same folks who brought us the Edsel. If they go 86, that's another 58 or so excess CRJs available - and lease rates will head toward the storm sewers. Will that torpedo some of the Island-dwelling SJPs? Or, will it open new opportunities for crafty players like Mesa?[/FONT]

Ther is more to read.
http://www.aviationplanning.com/2005Archives.htm#The%20FAA:


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[smellthejeta]

Damn. No matter how right or wrong I feel Boyd might be, I *ALWAYS* get a chuckle out of his writing style. It's one of the few things that really makes me laugh out loud.

 

[heywatchthis]

<<< So far, the big winner seems to be Sherwin-Williams.>>>

Laugh-in my ass off....

 

[zonker]

In 1998 Boyd was convinced that RJ's were going to take over the US Airline industry.

He changes his mind when the wind blows the opposite direction, and then crows about how right he's been the entire time.

 

[General Lee]

But Ron Reber at SkyWest thinks he is "insulated" from any problems......


Bye Bye--General Lee