Sun shining on Midwest?

[Chispa]

Is Midwest Airlines turning the corner?

There are some hot rumors and facts flying around:

Rumors:
1. 75 F/A recalls.
2. All Midwest Connect pilots being recalled.
3. Large Midwest pilot recalls over the next few months expected.
4. Significant growth in 5-year business plan (mostly in '04-'05).
5. Funjet Vacations (Mark Travel) contract flying is above and beyond the growth projected in the 5-year business plan.
6. Large upswing in charter contracts for this fall.
7. Numerous flight cancellations due to lack of pilots.
8. Vast amount of "Junior Assignments."

Facts:
1. Next wave of furloughs cancelled.
2. Two pilots recalled this past week.
3. Super Saver Service (LCC) went out 100% booked yesterday (inaugural day).
4. BK averted last month (for those of you unfamiliar).

Any Midwest drivers wanna chime in with the inside scoop?

Where do they stand wrt the encroaching MKE competition (AT, NW)?

How's the new financing looking for them?

 

[Ty Webb]

Sun shining? You've got to be kidding. A better question is "Is the sun setting on Midex?". Don't you read the financials? They just re-stated their 2 Qtr numbers- which were 45% worse than what they had first let on . . . and those numbers were bad enough.

Midex's whole business module, which is based on business traavelers, is terribly flawed. They have less seats than everyone else (2 by 2 seating means you already are giving up 20% of your seats) so they need to have a higher load factor and higher yield just to keep up with the LCC's. Since business travel has slumped, they can no longer count on getting the revenue per seat that they need to support their business model.

Throw in the oldest fleet in the business (or **CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED** near) and management that moves so slowly to change that they hand out mirrors at the shareholder's meeting just to make sure these guys are still breathing . . . and you get the picture.

Funny thing is that their management is still living in the past. When AirTran came in to MKE, they approached Midex about doing codeshare an dworking together. Midex had long-range airplanes flying half empty out of MKE to the West coast . . . and Midex refused to even consider it. They would rather go through bankruptcy and have a third of their pilot force furloughed than work out a deal with AirTran.

The shareholders should have called for Hoeksema's head at that point (and so should the pilot group), but I doubt that either group ever heard about it.

And yes, I did interview there, and at AirTran at the same time. Thank god AirTran said yes and they said no, or I would be furloughed there instead of looking at upgrade here.

 

[DH106]

Chispa, I gotta' defer to Ty Webb for giving us our 100% USDA daily allowance of Accurate Analysis, here.

He's right on the money.

The Midwest ALPA pilot group DID discuss a "vote of no-confidence" in the company's management. Fortunately, I moved-on before knowing the outcome of that.

I am not aware of any effort by shareholders to replace any members of management, however.

Slow to react? That's an understatement. The entire situation at that company (Midwest and Skyway) should have been wholely preventable. In my analysis, it's a result of:
1) years of failing to learn how to build an airline competitively (they always stayed away from markets/routes where competition existed),
2) they fostered poor labor relations, and
3) they squandered the corporate treasury when times were good (oversized, palatial headquarters complex, employee lawsuits, lousy aircraft-purchase decisions, the Midwest Airlines Center---as in "United Center" or "Delta Center", etc.). For crying out loud, why is a little airline like that paying massive construction costs and naming rights for a convention center? Was the airline just a means-to-an-end? Have the goals of "massive headquarters complex" and "huge convention center" finally been achieved?

When you compare Midwest's history since 1998, much of it parallels United's, but on a microscopic scale. There's a lot of arrogance, ignorance, and "failure to run the store" at that company.

Typical examples of squandering money: Nothing feels better than being furloughed with no health insurance for your wife and kid, and then driving past the corporate headquarters campus, only to see hired crews preening and beautifying the landscaping around the building. Or, how about going to a free public concert in downtown Milwaukee, only to discover that the major sponsor is, of course, Midwest Airlines. My point is that funds are continually squandered --- especially in Milwaukee, where there is no need to continue huge spending on brand-awareness!!! (In other words, they'll spend money in their home city, where everyone is perfectly aware of their presence, but they'll fail to market effectively in other cities.)

So, I apologize for rambling. Fortunately, I'm now with the airline that I really want to work for, and I'm loving every minute of it!

But, Midwest turning the corner? It's going to be business as-usual over there. Or, who knows; maybe worse, with NW, AirTran, Delta, and Frontier stepping-in?

 

[Chispa]

Copy that

Hey DH106 and Ty Webb,

I appreciate your insightful comments and thank you for providing analytical responses.

Midwest's situation certainly is food for thought. From what I hear, there's a bit more going on than the comments you both make . . . all of it having transpired in the past month or so (ref. the first post).

Specifically, Midwest seems to be sliding towards eventual full LCC status, as evidenced by the increasing assets they are committing towards the 2x3 seating operation, as the weeks go by.

Nevertheless, I am inclined to agree that drastic changes are needed . . . and are unlikely with the current (mis)management.

Regardless of their immediate future, the issues you both point out certainly raise serious concerns for their long-term prosperity.

How much time would you give Midwest as an airline before an implosion or BK? Do you foresee Chapter 11 or 7 and if so, when?

Any thoughts from someone "on the inside?"


P.S. Ty . . . still licking your interview wounds?

 

[Ty Webb]

P.S. Ty . . . still licking your interview wounds?

Are you kidding? I'm so thankful, it's not even funny.

As I posted earlier, if I were hired at Midex, I would have been furloughed immediately after 9/11. Instead, I started here in November of 2001, and am making $60K a year for working 14 days a month while waiting for upgrade. I am flying the airplane that they are only starting to take delivery of, and, if I just keep on showing up a couple of weeks every month, I will be in the top quarter of the seniority list of a major airline in the nxt couple of years.

Licking my wounds? More like thanking my lucky stars, bonehead!

 

[NuGuy]

Hi all,

Take what Ty says with a grain of salt. He's all cranky because Midwest told AirTran to pound sand when they wanted to buy them out, after management leaked to the pilot's union it was a "done deal". So Ty was all bummed out that he couldn't staple all those senior Midwest people on seniority list below him.

Now NWA is edging their way back into MKE, and they play the game old school and for keeps.

Flame suit on!

Nu

 

[Dieterly]

I will be in the top quarter of the seniority list of a major airline in the nxt couple of years.

Ty, you are funny!!!

 

[Ty Webb]

Hi all,

Take what Ty says with a grain of salt. He's all cranky because Midwest told AirTran to pound sand when they wanted to buy them out, after management leaked to the pilot's union it was a "done deal". So Ty was all bummed out that he couldn't staple all those senior Midwest people on seniority list below him.
Nu

Actually, that rumor is new to me. I kind of doubt it, though. what would we want with all that extra debt and those very old aircraft (Midex had the oldest flying DC9, serial #2).

I do find their current situation highly ironic, though- when I interviewed there in 2001, the interviewer took the time to slam AirTran twice during the interview, which I thought was incredibly bad form, especially since I had just jumpseated the day before to ATL on a brand new 717, flown by a very friendly crew who were excited about the upcoming contract. . . . then I got on an ancient MD80 flown by a crotchety crew who were bitter about their company . . . the difference was like night and day. As soon as I got home I updated my stuff with AirTran . . . so no sour grapes here. FWIW, they didn't hire anyone out of my entire group, in fact I am not sure they hired anyone after that, period . . . this was around 3/2001.

As to the guy who didn;t seem to get my comment about being in the top quarter of a major- our revenue is just shy of a billion. Our CFO announced that we will be continuing our current growth of 25% per year. Now I am 500/800 and in four years, I will be 400/1600.

If you find that funny, laugh away.

 

[StaySeated]

Growth?

I am not sure what business plan you have read, but the one that MEH put out shows no growth at all for the next five years. ME will continue to take delivery of one 717 a month until all of the 9's are gone (thats a one for one swap), then they will take one a quarter! I am not sure i would consider that growth, especially compared to airtran who will take more 717's in the next five months than ME will in the next 5years!!! Not to mention the airtran 73 order! I am totally amazed that we did not file last month, and consider it a blessing that I can still fly for a living while looking for another job 24/7.

 

[crashpad]

Ty speaks of the sun setting on MEH and 'stay-seated's avatar shows a picture of a plane landing with the sun setting behind it....
this thread is chocked with bad mojo!

 

[Dieterly]

Ty, remember this quote (hint, hint, something you posted awhile ago)

Sorry, Guy, but Comair is not a major, not by any stretch of the imagination. Neither is Eagle, neither is COEX. To claim other than that is simply deluding yourself.

They may sell more than $1 Bil in tickets, but that just means that they are a regional that sells a lot of tickets- they are still a regional.

Majors don't operate a 60 seat airplane as their "Heavy Iron".

 

[FLB717]

Ty
While I normally agree with you remember 25% growth is ASM not Aircraft percentage. The actual A/C growth will prob be around 16-19% (Senority Growth). But still NOT sucking to bad.

 

[Ty Webb]

Ty, remember this quote (hint, hint, something you posted awhile ago)

Relevance, please?

 

[Ty Webb]

Ty
While I normally agree with you remember 25% growth is ASM not Aircraft percentage. The actual A/C growth will prob be around 16-19% (Senority Growth). But still NOT sucking to bad.

True, but if you compound the growth, ie 100 airplanes, plus 16%, plus 16% of that total, plus 16% of that total, plus 16% of that total, you still end up doubling after 4 years.

 

[Dieterly]

OK Ty,
Let me spell it out for you, real s l o w l y; you are saying Comair is not a Major 'cause they are "only" flying commuter a/c's. So what kind of widebodys will Valuejet, sorry Airtran have when they finally break into the $1 Bill (if they do) mark? Or are you saying if Comair had a bunch of old clappped out dc-9's, they would then be a MAJOR airline?

By the way; what kind of "heavy iron" does Airtran operate?

 

[resistance]

I love to hear from these two faced pilots. They boast one day that their airline is the best one day and a couple years down the road their bitchin' how bad their company sucks. Remember the list of defunct carriers out there since 1978 and look in the mirror...your carrier can be next.

By the way incase most of our viewer have forgotten....AirTran aka. Valuejet is an airline stacked high with Eastern Scabs. Just look at their pilot's senority list and then match it to ALPA's scab sheet.

By the way it's not about the "iron" your flyin' but the size of the check and if it clears!!

 

[trainerjet]

I love it when "commuter" pilots (like Dieterly and resistance) try to justify their existance on this earth by the bullsh!t they post on this board.

I'll just ignore Dieterly completely, since he's already been exposed as a fraud and "clapped out" loser.

As far as resistance's comments go...it's that same old, tired old, BIG NEWS story. I guess you go about comparing the seniority lists at CAL, DAL, UAL, etc with ALPA's "list", too. I think they are "stacked high" as well. What is the significance of that? We may even have a few here. Maybe I should quit my major airline job because of it.

Also, if you're measuring the "man" by the size of their paycheck, I think you come up WAY short with your RJ commuter flying paycheck, stud.

 

[Dieterly]

exposed as a fraud

Not sure what you mean with that statement, maybe you care to explain?

 

[DH106]

I think things have strayed from the original theme of this post: "Sun setting on Midwest." Does anyone else have input on that subject?

 

[Ty Webb]

Don't bother going slowly for me, pal, I just wanted to give you the opportunity to step on your crank a little, which I knew you wouldn;t be able to resist doing.


you are saying Comair is not a Major 'cause they are "only" flying commuter a/c's.

No, buddy, a "major" has more to do with than just that. SWA is a major, to state one obvious example, widebody doesn't even figure into it . . . AWA is a major, Alaska, ATA are all majors. None operate widebodies (with the exception of ATA having a few L-1011's on government charters).

So what kind of widebodys will Valuejet, sorry Airtran have when they finally break into the $1 Bill (if they do) mark?

Ah, here we go again, the valujet thing again. Thought so. Re-read some of the other threads to find out why the AirTran of today has very little in common with VJ, I'm not going to bother with that one.

Or are you saying if Comair had a bunch of old clappped out dc-9's, they would then be a MAJOR airline?

Don;t know what rock you have been living under, but we are down to a handful of DC9 (5, I think) and they will all be gone by October. Now, if you want to talk about clap-trap, let's start a 717 versus RJ thread, I'm sure that one will be interesting- having commuted in thefront and back of the RJ's Air Wisconsin operates for us, the subject in the back seems to be how small and cramped RJ's are, and the subject in the front seems to be "How can I get on with you guys?".

So, Dieterly, I think what this whole thing comes down to is that you have a small penis and a small paycheck, and are trying to vent your anger about those problems in the wrong forum. Here's a quarter . . . .. call someone who cares.