Straw Poll

[scoreboard]

Just curious if anyone has a reference or has seen a study based on economics of when getting out would equal or better a Mil retirement, although possibly irrelevant given the concessions of the airlines of late. Anyway, I’d say bail to the guard/reserve and complete retirement credit there with a possible FedEx job around the corner.

Back in the late 80's it was told you could get out at 17.5 years and make more without the retirement than if you stayed in, Time value of money, 2.5 years more of Capt pay, etc. All a pipe dream, everyone I know who got out has been layed off at least once.

Dont ever give up the Mil benefits, whether active retired or AGR points and take it at 60. Nothing beats that security.

 

[Tnkr Pilot]

Thanks for the info...I heard that stat as well...just wondering if there was anything recent...also, another factor to consider is ACP...will that go away in 07-08 - anyone in the know?

 

[Bjammin]

I got the airline gig going and am in the reserves with one year left until a reserve retirement. Couldn't be happier, (except for my spoiled 13 year old son, GEEZZ!).
Getting out was the best choice I ever made. There are STILL old school airlines out there with great pay and benefits and the reserves give you that extra helping of income and security.

If you are that on the fence about getting out write a list of all the benifits of each, look at a long term money analysis, and then make a very informed decision.

Best of luck, it's only bad out there if you let it be.

 

[AlbieF15]

I was one of those captains back in 97 who went to talk to their MAJCOM commanders about retention. Here were some of the things that came out at the time:

Delta/American/United all said they could hire EVERY pilot the AF produced...
Numbers indicated you could bail at 19 years and still come out ahead...
Bonuses were going to go up...
Deployment schedules would shrink from 90 to 45 days...albeit more frequent trips to the sandbox

Well...we all sort of know how that played out. Furloughs at the majors go back to 98-99 at most majors. The guys who hung on and are at the bottom are proably making less than what they'd be making as a MAJ or LTC had they stayed in. Bonuses did go up...but deployment schedules did too...45 day trips didn't last long before they sprang back to 90-120.

So--the world changed. 9/11 helped it along, but things were headed south as the stock market bubble finally imploded. All the incentives the AF had to keep mid-level guys in have basically become moot by circumstance.

The great news is the AF is getting cocky, reducing benefits, talking of killing the ACP program. Why is this good? For 30 years the AF has been on the wrong side of the pilot curve. If they curtail all these programs it can only mean airline hiring is about to explode over the next few years. So--hang on and keep the faith--better times are a comin'!

You know my bet--I bailed post 9/11. However, I had a good ANG gig, a solid job offer (actually 2), and also knew it was exactly what I wanted. Like Scoreboard--I was going to serve my country a few years then run to Delta Airlines. (wanna make God laugh...have a plan...) Anyway...I'm a quitter but I still serve, and my life is very different (but much better) than I ever imagine. A lot of this game is just listening to your heart and having the courage to follow it...

 

[Mooseflyer]

Stay 6 more years (it's a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme)
Collect retirement
Buy small house on lake in Nowheresville
Buy small fishing boat
Live simply and enjoy retirement at age 45


Oh, and if, for whatever reason, I get bored fishing every day, I'll re-discover all those hobbies I used to have, or pick up some new ones I always wanted to learn.

 

[Huggyu2]

NEGATIVE! NEGATIVE!
Do BOTH!!!
- Get to 15 years on active duty
- Get "dream job" on the outside (FedEx, whatever)

- Get off probation
- Come back on active duty for 5 years
- Get retirement AND come back on 7th year pay.

Zing!!!! You win!!!
OK, everyone.... start throwing spears at me...

 

[Mooseflyer]

This got me thinking.......so how much is the active duty retirement worth over the reserve retirement?

Let's assume "Joe" did ROTC in college and went on active duty at age 23. Joe is now at the 16 year point and is age 37. He decides to do 6 more years, retires as an O-5, and begins collecting retirement at age 43. His buddy "Ted" gets out at the 16 year point, joins the reserve, but won't collect retirement until age 60. How much more is Joe being "paid" on an annual basis?

In other words, Joe can expect a retirment check of $3500/month before taxes. If Uncle Sam actually paid him money each of the 6 additional years instead of promising him a pension, how much would they have to pay him per year so that he may invest it and later withdraw the same $3500/month between ages 43 and 60?

A quick run through the MSN retirement calculator shows that in order to draw $3500/mo for 17 years (between age 43 and 60), Joe would have to invest over $76,000/yr!!! for the 6 years prior to retirement (assuming a 7% ROI). Joe is probably an O-4 at this point and is probably making close to six figures considering BAH, COLA, CZTE/HFP, Per Diem, etc. Add them together and he's "making" almost $175,000/yr, while his buddy Ted gave that up to start a new career. Will it be worth it? If he's in the FedEx pool, possibly. If he starts at most other airlines, not likely.

Disclaimer: I'm about as far from a math major as one can possibly get, so the above example is overly simplified and leaves out what are sure to be many variables (like intangible QOL issues, for one). Let the spear chucking begin......

 

[pilotyip]

2007 hiring booom

Albie15, right on the mil is always behind the curve, massive RIF's followed by stop loss two years later because they are short of pilots, I saw it back in 1977-79, followed by a retention bonus, going into effect in 1982 when no one was getting out. Nav's with 16 yrs service in a non-flying shore staff job got the same bonus as a 7 A-7 driver living on a boat. BTW, the killing of the ACP program is another sign of the coming 2007 hiring boom.

 

[DLax85]

First, thanks for your 14 yrs of dedicated service to your nation...be very proud of yourself, regardless of your final decision...IMHO, stay until 20....the retirement income gives you more options later in life...the world is always changing --- and having options you control is what it's all about.

Aloha

 

[AlbieF15]

Huggy,

Your plan has merit, but one big drawback.

You DO have to go back in for 5 years. You DO have to fill out leave when you want days off. You can get shacked for 90/120/180/1 year bad deal non-flying gigs. You actually have to do all those ancillary training squares than a good NCO can make "disappear" for a part time guy. In other words...you still have to a full time guy. Beats working...or being unemployed...but its damn hard work some days.

I know its got its merits...I considered your plan when I had the chance. However, these days a great week is an F-15 sortie, a nice day trip somewhere in a 727, and a weekend jaunt in my Navion. Even if you come out on top money wise, that Q of life is worth something. Everyone has their own matrix, and there are no universal answers.

And Moose--your math is valid. However, if you were lucky enough to grab a nice piece of property during at the right time 2-3 years ago you might have more than made up for lost retirement wages with some smart investments. I won't knock living on Uncle Sam's tit as a very solid option, but its certainly not the ONLY way to make an income. The nice thing about NOT being full time is it allows you the time to pursue those other options that interest you. I've seen more than a few pilots make up what they bypassed with a retirement check with other sources of income.

Good luck to all--its an agonizing choice.

 

[RickKC-135]

Guy's I have to throw this in the pot. I know it's illegal but it happened. Had a friend with 14 years interview at a major a few months ago. He was asked what his plans were to complete his AF time to get the retirement. He said he would probably look for a guard job. He said the look on the interviewer summed up his chances of getting hired. Needless to say he got turned down.

 

[Huggyu2]

Albie,
Yeah, you're spot on. My circumstances were unique to me, and it has worked out real well. I knew I was going to be able to avoid most of the negative QOL issues (although the long days here in the office can't really be avoided).
I suppose the scenario I proposed is best for someone who's definitely leaning to get a 20 year active duty retirement: if you're going to do it, use the USERRA law to help you accrue seniority for the last 5 years. The biggest "stressor" is the uncertainty of whether you'd be able to come back on active duty ~1 year after you leave it.

 

[Mooseflyer]

Lots of good thoughts here. Many guys are mentioning to "get out and get a guard/reserve job" or an AGR job. Before you, er, ah, "this guy" pulls the trigger on active duty, make sure that you/he can actually find a slot. Many units are jam packed right now and aren't hiring due to the crappy situation on the outside. My unit, for example, is over 110% manned and isn't even hiring guys who are already fully qualified in the airplane. As a matter of fact, we're going to be giving up a few airframes in the future and will actually be looking for volunteers to retire or separate. If there aren't enough volunteers, guys will be "volunteered". Who would have thought you could be furloughed from the USAFR?

Also mentioned is "give the extra time to family" after you get out. Depending on your deployment cycle and/or additional duties on AD and the airline you end up with, one may very well have less time at home in the civ world than he did in the military, especially as a commuter (and as a guard/reserve guy, you'll almost certainly be commuting to one job or the other). Suddenly 200 days TDY per year may not look so bad. Things to ponder.......

 

[Tnkr Pilot]

All – great perspectives and deep thoughts, it seems to be one of the biggest decision in ones’ career and rightfully so. I remember how I felt when I got my pilot slot and then pinned on my wings, however, endless deployments and BS have dulled the enchantment long ago. The flip side is the many thanks from random strangers when you pick up some milk at the store…people realize the sacrifices. Two thoughts to add: 1) How will the age 60 (65) rule cloud the picture…always fly corporate/FE if it doesn’t pass 2) How many more PCS’s are you willing to go through -- as a Maj/Lt Col you’ll be on a conveyer belt for PME, Staff jobs, etc. - Fly Safe!

 

[DLax85]

20 yrs ago as a young Lt, I heard a wise-old United Captain, who was also a Colonel in the USAF Reserve, say...."if you get out and expect to fly for the airlines and the Reserve with an "increase" in your QOL, you need to be sure that at least 2 out of the 3 (...your house, your domicile and/or your reserve unit) are in the same city"....since I always got what I asked for at the critical 7 yr and 14 yr points, I ended up staying in and taking the bonus till 20 yrs...if you want a shot at flying for a major airline on the outside when you retire, you will have to make sure your are at least flying as an attached guy on your last tour. Good luck with your decision.

 

[stonewall]

Guy's I have to throw this in the pot. I know it's illegal but it happened. Had a friend with 14 years interview at a major a few months ago. He was asked what his plans were to complete his AF time to get the retirement. He said he would probably look for a guard job. He said the look on the interviewer summed up his chances of getting hired. Needless to say he got turned down.

I'm not sure what airline, but we (my unit) just had a guy turned down at SWA. He had the type, lots of recs, felt like he did great in the interview, and no dice. They DID ask him about the Guard. He said out of 11 guys hired at the DB, only 2 were military. There is LOTS of buzz that SWA is taking it on the chin with activations and mil leaves, and therefore not hiring mil guys. Don't know how accurate that is, but it's complete BS if true. The civvie guys will love it, but it ain't right. Discrimination is discrimination. However, something like that can't be proven.

Any SWA guys have any intel on this?

 

[stonewall]

Huggy,

Your plan has merit, but one big drawback.

You DO have to go back in for 5 years. You DO have to fill out leave when you want days off. You can get shacked for 90/120/180/1 year bad deal non-flying gigs. You actually have to do all those ancillary training squares than a good NCO can make "disappear" for a part time guy. In other words...you still have to a full time guy. Beats working...or being unemployed...but its dang hard work some days.

I know its got its merits...I considered your plan when I had the chance. However, these days a great week is an F-15 sortie, a nice day trip somewhere in a 727, and a weekend jaunt in my Navion. Even if you come out on top money wise, that Q of life is worth something. Everyone has their own matrix, and there are no universal answers.

And Moose--your math is valid. However, if you were lucky enough to grab a nice piece of property during at the right time 2-3 years ago you might have more than made up for lost retirement wages with some smart investments. I won't knock living on Uncle Sam's tit as a very solid option, but its certainly not the ONLY way to make an income. The nice thing about NOT being full time is it allows you the time to pursue those other options that interest you. I've seen more than a few pilots make up what they bypassed with a retirement check with other sources of income.

Good luck to all--its an agonizing choice.

You also have to get orders for 5 years. They ain't exactly handing them out like candy these days. My OG just asked me to apply for an AGR gig in my squadron. I said no, simply b/c we have too many guys in my unit scrambling for orders. Lots of UA/DL guys. I'd feel guilty. Besides, I DO like my FDX/Guard life right now, so I'm not all heart.

I know how fortunate I am. I got out at 9.5 yrs, signed into the Guard and started FDX the next day. However, if I was at 14 yrs and didn't have a FDX or UPS gig waiting, I'd stay. IF I could go Guard/Reserve on full time orders vs AD, I'd take that since you have more options down the road. Anyway, it worked out for me, and I'll stay in the Guard until they kick me out.

Yes, I'll be one of those dinosaurs not flying BFM in the F-22 when I'm 50. Sue me.

 

[Deuce130]

I also agonize over this decision, though a bit different. I've got the FDX job and I've got a reserve job in Florida. However, my contemplation is whether to quit the reserves or not. I could move to Memphis, make a boatload of dollars and be home with my wife and kid EVERYDAY. On the flipside, I could stay in FL, fly with a reserve unit that I love with great guys that I love, but I would be on the road two weeks a year. In other words, Dad would always be in a state of "coming or going" for the next 10 years until I retire. Tough call, not sure what to do.

 

[stonewall]

I also agonize over this decision, though a bit different. I've got the FDX job and I've got a reserve job in Florida. However, my contemplation is whether to quit the reserves or not. I could move to Memphis, make a boatload of dollars and be home with my wife and kid EVERYDAY. On the flipside, I could stay in FL, fly with a reserve unit that I love with great guys that I love, but I would be on the road two weeks a year. In other words, Dad would always be in a state of "coming or going" for the next 10 years until I retire. Tough call, not sure what to do.

I have zero faith that our FDX pension will be there in 27 years. If you can make it to 20 with the AF, you need to do it. I know Albie has mentioned this before, but if FDX is gonna cnx our pension, just do it now and pay us more. We could be better off in the long run.

Besides, Deuce, I don't think AFSOC can make it without you. YOU OWE IT TO YOUR COUNTRY!

 

[Deuce130]

Besides, Deuce, I don't think AFSOC can make it without you. quote]

You're too kind .... but I think they'll be just fine!