Perfect example of what it was and what it is does not necessarily reflect what it will be. I was hired at a regional in early 2001 and told I'd be an E120 CA within 6-9 months. Still waiting for that one...
The folks getting the awards right now are mid-2001 hires...so they've been waiting awhile. Now, keep in mind what has happened since they were in Indoc. class: 9/11 attacks, an entire fleet transition, non-existent attrition, new management from top-to-bottom, a new/revised business plan, etc. Spirit 2007 doesn't much resemble Spirit 2001.
Here are the IFs: IF the company gets the aircraft on order when they claim they will, IF encroaching competition doesn't slow the growth model down, IF fuel price stays "reasonable" (sheesh...), IF we can avoid a Muslim holy war...IF all of these occur, then I hope to upgrade within 2 to 3 years from now. I've got a head start on ya; I was one of the first classes in the "hiring boom" this time around. Right now, I'm about 120 numbers away from an award (both bases). I think the latest class has pilot #470 in it. I think anyone hired this year is looking at less than 4 years.
This is all based on the common-knowledge rumor that the new a/c will begin arriving in Jan09 at a rate of 2/mo. Average in a few resignations, a few recalls to UAL/AA/LLC, and a few "my wife's parents' just left us a bunch of money...I'm going fishing"-scenarios, and it's possible. Just watch out for those IFs!
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