ATA Bankruptcy Filing Brings AirTran Into Midway
Aviation Week & Space Technology
11/01/2004, page 24
David Bond
Washington
As ATA sinks into Chapter 11, its new 'partner' deals for Midway gates, slots in Northeast U.S.
LAW OF THE JUNGLE
A bankruptcy-protection filing by ATA Airlines will lead to the kind of realignment that airline observers have been expecting but not seeing so far-- the transfer of an endangered airline's assets, however limited in scope, to an up-and-coming competitor.
Even as AirTran Airways reported its first quarterly loss since the three months that immediately followed the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks, the Orlando-based carrier says it will pay ATA $87.5 million for rights to lease up to 14 gates at Chicago Midway Airport, authority to develop ramp space at Midway for as many as 10 gates for regional jets, and time-controlled takeoff and landing slots at the two U.S. High-Density-Rule airports--New York LaGuardia and Reagan Washington National. AirTran has tried with only limited success to gain access to both, and the ATA deal will give it 19 slots at LaGuardia and eight at Reagan.
The transaction, subject to bankruptcy-court approval, will provide much-needed cash for ATA, which assured customers last week that it intends to conduct business as usual as it reorganizes, and set out to find debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing. The Air Transportation Stabilization Board, which oversees an ATA federal loan guarantee approved originally at $148.5 million, will permit the carrier to use $20.7 million--95% of its available cash, held as collateral against the loan--for day-to-day expenses prior to a DIP loan.
For AirTran, the deal opens up opportunities. CEO Robert Fornaro says AirTran has wanted to reduce the concentration of its operations at its hub in Atlanta to about 55% of its capacity by the end of 2005 because cutthroat competition there is likely to strangle revenues and profits. He says AirTran thinks it can succeed at Midway because its costs are lower than ATA's, its aircraft are smaller and its current routes mesh well with the new ones.
Beyond Midway slots, AirTran would get additional slots at two limited-access airports, New York LaGuardia and Reagan Washington. Credit: BILL HOUGH
To AirTran, Atlanta is a good place to lie low for a year or two. "We think the prospects in the Southeast are going to be really tough in the fourth quarter of next year," Fornaro told securities analysts Oct. 27. "Our feeling is that eventually the Southeast will rationalize, that Delta Air Lines has done everything it can. They put themselves on the brink of bankruptcy chasing AirTran and JetBlue. That still has a way to go. Their new strategy in Atlanta [increasing capacity] is going to further enhance their losses, because they'll be competing with themselves. They've got 75-80% market share, and they're going to take their own customers.
"We have to live through it. We think in the short term we can dramatically improve some of our weaker routes by reallocating that capacity over the next 12 months."
AirTran sees Independence Air, this summer's low-fare regional-jet startup at Washington Dulles International Airport, as another major factor in the collapse of yields in the eastern U.S. AirTran estimates that Independence dictates prices in about 40% of its Atlanta origin-and-destination markets, and that matching Independence's fares cost it $5-6 million during the third quarter. "They have very, very low fares," Fornaro says. "Delta has been very, very aggressive with them, and we've had to match them. . . . We don't think Independence Air's strategy is sustainable, so hopefully that will correct itself at some point next year. . . .To be flying an RJ with $59 fares is one of the silliest things I've ever seen. The RJ is a high-cost airplane."
Independence reported an $82.7-million net loss for the third quarter, a turnaround of more than $100 million from a year-earlier profit and a "significantly larger" deficit than it had expected, according to CFO Richard Surratt. Unrestricted cash was down more than 40% during the quarter to $198 million, and some analysts are coming to see the carrier as a potential Chapter 11 case. Surratt declined to reveal the cash burn in the third quarter but said Independence expects to reduce it in the fourth. A big factor in the third quarter was a large lease payment in July, the last of 2004. Another payment is due in January, however, so Independence is meeting with lessors and creditors about relaxed terms. The company also will try to reduce costs, increase revenues and borrow money against unencumbered aircraft and spare parts.
Independence is facing problems in filling up its airplanes; its load factors are particularly poor in markets it entered during the summer, which comprise more than half its routes. To cure this, the airline is negotiating participation in global distribution systems, something it didn't want to do because selling tickets without them would minimize distribution costs. In another turnabout, it will reduce frequencies in markets where it deploys the most capacity. In December, it will reduce Dulles-Atlanta flights to eight per day from 16, Newark to 10 from 16, Boston to 12 from 16, New York JFK to 13 from 17 and Raleigh-Durham to nine from 14.
ATA Airlines' 757s had too much capacity to be successful at Chicago Midway, AirTran believes. AirTran will substitute its 737-700s as soon as it can.Credit: JOSEPH PRIES
As AirTran moves into Chicago Midway, it will not only have a lot of capacity to deploy, it also will be able to contract for wet-lease flying by ATA, using 15-20 of its 737-800 aircraft. AirTran itself is scheduled to take delivery of 16 737-700s and 10 717s in the next 14 months, all with committed financing. It intends to wet-lease as a transition, lasting less than a year and preferably about six months, and substitute its own aircraft as soon as possible.
At the same time, the Midway wet-lease would be one way to increase capacity even further than the roughly 30% increase AirTran expects from its own fleet growth. That could be crucial if US Airways, Delta or Independence pull down capacity during the year and AirTran wants to seize the moment and move in. AirTran assumes nothing. "US Airways is a tough competitor, and they're going to find a way to hang in there for a while," Fornaro says. But he added that AirTran will "participate" if US Airways shrinks, and CEO Joe Leonard made clear that capacity won't stand in the way. "I have no doubt we could get our hands on some additional airplanes if need be."
AirTran is counting on its smaller aircraft to make the difference between ATA losses and its own profits at Midway. AirTran's 737-700s and 717s contain 117-127 seats, while ATA was flying 185-200 per aircraft, Fornaro says, and with aircraft that large, "you create your own downward pressure on revenue." ATA will be a partner of sorts--the Midway deal provides for code sharing and a combined frequent-traveler program.
Leonard was sanguine about taking on Midway's big dog, Southwest Airlines. "If you can't compete with Southwest you've really got to get out of the game, because Southwest is going to be everywhere eventually," he says. "Our costs are the same as theirs. We run our company exactly the same way they run theirs, to maximize profit every single quarter. We're not out to show that we're macho. They don't behave that way, unlike a lot of other competitors.
"We manage to coexist peacefully in Baltimore. They're the big gun there; we have a sizable operation, but they don't feel threatened by us, as they should not. We will actually improve the yields at Midway, which they should be happy about."