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Southwest faces $3 billion fuel bill

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Old School 737

NG's now and it is A OK!!
Joined
Jun 13, 2005
Posts
986
Southwest faces $3 billion fuel bill
Dallas-based airline says 20 percent increase nearly equals 2007 profit

updated 2 hours, 29 minutes ago
DALLAS - Southwest Airlines Co. says its 2008 fuel bill will rise more than $500 million — nearly equal to its entire profit last year.

In a regulatory filing Thursday, Southwest comments echoed recent similar forecasts of higher fuel costs from American Airlines and Continental Airlines Inc. and underscored the industry's vulnerability to rising oil prices.

Dallas-based Southwest spent $2.54 billion on fuel last year, so the forecast of a $500 million increase would push the airline's 2008 fuel bill over $3 billion.


The company said it would try to offset fuel costs by raising more revenue and controlling other costs.

For several years, Southwest has benefited from fuel hedging. Southwest has paid upfront for the right to buy fuel at certain prices. When fuel prices began rising earlier this decade, Southwest was able to lock in below-market prices for most of its fuel.

While still less than what rivals pay, Southwest's average fuel price has risen from 72 cents per gallon in 2003 to $1.70 per gallon last year.

Southwest has hedged 70 percent of its 2008 fuel needs at the equivalent of $51 per barrel for crude oil — less than half the current price of oil.

American, a unit of Fort Worth-based AMR Corp., said recently it expects to spend $9.3 billion for fuel this year, up from $6.7 billion last year.

Houston-based Continental said last month it expects its fuel bill to rise $1.5 billion in 2008. Chief financial officer Jeff Misner said the airline couldn't raise fares quickly enough to cover the cost of fuel.

United Airlines said it faced a $1.2 billion increase for fuel this year, and Delta Air Lines Inc. said it expected to pay $900 million more. Northwest was budgeting for $800 million more.

Fuel is typically an airline's second-leading cost, after labor. Airlines are trying to offset surging fuel prices by reducing flights, trying to raise fares, and adding new charges, like fees to check a second bag.
 
Southwest Airlines Co. says its 2008 fuel bill will rise more than $500 million — nearly equal to its entire profit last year.

That doesn't sound good.

But it puts good light on why so many carriers are not smoldering but spontaneously combusting.
 
we semi are

No one is protected from the fuel thing.
We bid each trip with the cost of fuel that day. If we don't make money, we don't fly. Old airplanes paid for, no holding cost if we don't fly. We are competing against other old airplanes, so our competitors cost is similar to ours. Fuel has gone up but we are able to pas it along to the customer.
 
And observe that SWA still has hedges for 2008. Wait till 2009, 2010, and they are still flying around the brand new fleet with (good for them, but...) highly compensated pilots

edit to add:

Also remember SWA supported age 65, so instead of filling seats with $50,000 first year bodies, they have $200,000 a year bodies staying 5 more years.

SWA may find that the "good old days" of Herb Kelleher, cheap Jet-A, 6 year Captain upgrades, and talking about your new bass boat while at cruise, those days may be over.

The new topic will be gee it is 10 years till upgrade, they asked for pay freezes/cuts, and classes are cancelled/hiring stopped and we might furlough.
 
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Southwest faces $3 billion fuel bill
Dallas-based airline says 20 percent increase nearly equals 2007 profit

updated 2 hours, 29 minutes ago

Dallas-based Southwest spent $2.54 billion on fuel last year, so the forecast of a $500 million increase would push the airline's 2008 fuel bill over $3 billion.


The company said it would try to offset fuel costs by raising more revenue and controlling other costs.

.

SWA is already running on a bare minimum cost, what more can they control (or cut) ?
 
You let us worry about that.

it is actually a good question. WHERE can the costs be further cut? I am not trying to cause a hostile discussion, this industry is in bad times. Something has to give.

If SWA cannot cut costs anymore, then we are all in for trouble.

If Tiger Woods cannot score on the golf course, nobody else will.
 
Fuel is typically an airline's second-leading cost, after labor.
For all the cuts and crap pay that they are paying now. I would bet that fuel is by far the major cost nowadays.
 
If fuel is hurting SWA, just think how bad it will affect all others. I am not to worried about this statement. They dont need to cut the cost. They are generating new revenues. No I do not drink koolaid, far from it. I like our position better then any other airline out there.
 
If fuel is hurting SWA, just think how bad it will affect all others. I am not to worried about this statement. They dont need to cut the cost. They are generating new revenues. No I do not drink koolaid, far from it. I like our position better then any other airline out there.

what position are you at SWA
 
it is actually a good question. WHERE can the costs be further cut? I am not trying to cause a hostile discussion, this industry is in bad times. Something has to give.

If SWA cannot cut costs anymore, then we are all in for trouble.

If Tiger Woods cannot score on the golf course, nobody else will.


Not sure how much more SWA can "cut" costs. But from listening to all their investor conference calls the last few quarters their plan is more to try to "control" costs and then significantly increase revenues (by $1.5 billion a year starting in 2009). They have a variety of ideas to generate the extra revenue.... their new "business select" tickets, better revenue management and fair structure, wireless internet, international codesharing (not sure what impact ATA has had on this part), and things like selling more hotel/rental car packages through their website. Put it all together and they think they can generate enough revenue to compensate for the fuel hedges winding down... and then continue to expand like they did in the old days.
 
Not sure how much more SWA can "cut" costs. But from listening to all their investor conference calls the last few quarters their plan is more to try to "control" costs and then significantly increase revenues (by $1.5 billion a year starting in 2009). They have a variety of ideas to generate the extra revenue.... their new "business select" tickets, better revenue management and fair structure, wireless internet, international codesharing (not sure what impact ATA has had on this part), and things like selling more hotel/rental car packages through their website. Put it all together and they think they can generate enough revenue to compensate for the fuel hedges winding down... and then continue to expand like they did in the old days.

Sounds like ambitious plans, especially more expansion, more hiring, and implementing ideas (which also costs money).

However if anyone can pull it off, SWA can.

If SWA can't, we all are in trouble.
 
The answer would obviously be to cut any costs that you can, but more likely a company would be looking to raise the cost of tickets to pass on the cost to the customer. Maybe with all the bottom-feeders going out of business, there will be room for the industry to actually raise prices to market value.
 
SWA is already running on a bare minimum cost, what more can they control (or cut) ?

Seems I remember something about SWA running and/or owning quite a few airport fuel farms around their system. They get a piece of the pie of every gallon any airline uplifts in those cities.
 
Milky said:

Maybe with all the bottom-feeders going out of business, there will be room for the industry to actually raise prices to market value.

I believe it was actually Southwest that led the charge for low airfares. Ever read "NUTS"? They used to brag about how when they entered a market the fares came down. If the planes were full, add more flights instead of raise fares. And, I personally wouldn't consider Aloha and ATA bottom-feeders.

Cheers.
 
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I got a freaking crazy idea here to fix this Airline industry problem... RAISE THE F"ING PRICE OF THE TICKETS TO REFLECT INCREASED OIL COSTS LIKE EVERY OTHER FREAKING INDUSTRY DOES!

Thank you for listening

PS: and I dont even have an MBA :)
 
I got a freaking crazy idea here to fix this Airline industry problem... RAISE THE F"ING PRICE OF THE TICKETS TO REFLECT INCREASED OIL COSTS LIKE EVERY OTHER FREAKING INDUSTRY DOES!

Thank you for listening

PS: and I dont even have an MBA :)
Southwest will just as soon as Frontier goes tits up in DEN.
 
What SWA news release didn't say was our fuel hedges are worth (at the price of oil now) around 3 Billion this year. Right now the company expects to net (after paying for fuel) over 1.5 billion (profit). Also, we are hedged as various percentages for the next 5 years. I flew with a union guy onboard last week and he related all this. He also said alot of this "poor me" from the company is because they are getting ready to talk $$$ issues in our negotiations.
 
Dallas-based Southwest spent $2.54 billion on fuel last year, so the forecast of a $500 million increase would push the airline's 2008 fuel bill over $3 billion.

And.................

American, a unit of Fort Worth-based AMR Corp., said recently it expects to spend $9.3 billion for fuel this year, up from $6.7 billion last year.

And..................

Houston-based Continental said last month it expects its fuel bill to rise $1.5 billion in 2008.

And..................

United Airlines said it faced a $1.2 billion increase for fuel this year, and Delta Air Lines Inc. said it expected to pay $900 million more.

And..................

Northwest was budgeting for $800 million more.

Looks like this is an industry problem. Sounds like contract time at SWA. :smash:
 
It's easy to point out the "extra expense" this year for fuel. Where's the statement about "increased revenue" from selling the hedges? Gary conveniently left that out.

Bottom line. Once again our hedge masters have earned every bit of bonus they get. If we can't afford fuel in todays market nobody is turning a blade.

Gup
 
SWA is already running on a bare minimum cost, what more can they control (or cut) ?


I think their pilots union should take out a full page ad blasting their own company and driving customers to other carriers...brilliant move!
 
I travel DTW to ABQ on a regular basis, used to use SWA all the time. But if I am planning more than three weeks in advance I can beat SWA prices on that route all the time with CAL, AAL, and NWA. Rasing prices will continue to move passengers to lower fare carriers. Short notice trips SWA seems to have an advantage.
 
I am just wondering how much longer Southwest can keep up before they have to try new ways to do their business. It currently thrives on consumer's perception of "Southwest is the cheapest and always offers the best deal" Their fares are already up to where legacy carriers are and sometimes charging even more. What else can Southwest do to increase revenue when legacy carriers fight vigorouly to make up lost domestic revenue with stuff like premium traffic overseas and cargo. It's going to take a lot more than expanding to Hawaii and Mexico.
 
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We bid each trip with the cost of fuel that day. If we don't make money, we don't fly. Old airplanes paid for, no holding cost if we don't fly. We are competing against other old airplanes, so our competitors cost is similar to ours. Fuel has gone up but we are able to pas it along to the customer.
What a novel idea! Now just tell the boneheads running the airlines.
 

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