SkyWest discusses possible Comair purchase

[amcnd]

GL I know you say that you wont give up scope. But at the end of this week I bet you give it up, to save your job. My guess is they will take a small paycut and a big hit in scope.. 76 seat scope is on the way!!

 

[General Lee]

General,

Have you ever considered that you're domestic narrow body flying is partly dragging you down. Delta's most profitable flying is the international, wide body and larger guage domestic. These segments have to cross subsidise the smaller guage stuff. If you want to preserve mainline wages ditch the cheap work and focus on your strengths. Trying to fly even smaller planes i.e. 90 seaters, would only increase the burden and put even more downward pressure on wages overall. I may be mistaken, take it as food for thought.

Dragging us down? Raise the fares. We are so full it is ridiculous. And, we already fly a 100 seater---the 737-200. It is old and a gas guzler, which means it should be replaced with another 100 seater--like the E190. So, if we had a 100 seater, then why should we have a 90 seat RJ? We shouldn't. I think more 70 seaters could fit in well. Remember, we have done very well in the past with 100 seaters---like all of the 737s, the 733s in SLC, etc. Then our bonehead management had a 85% RASM compared to the other legacies, which if we would have charged the same amount for tickets as the other guys--could have brought in another $2.5 BILLION last year. That was testimony on the stand in our 1113c hearing. Was that our fault? How can you say we are bringing down this company? The guys who figure out how much for tickets are doing that. We negotiated a pay rate already for the 100 seater, and it is competitive with other airlines with the same size. But, as we all know, negotiating a rate doesn't mean there will be orders (we have had 737-700 and 737-900 rates since late 04). That is what we need to work on. And, if we get 100 seaters, there should be NO need for 90 seaters.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

GL I know you say that you wont give up scope. But at the end of this week I bet you give it up, to save your job. My guess is they will take a small paycut and a big hit in scope.. 76 seat scope is on the way!!

No we won't. The management will give up rather than lose out on major money from new stock. I can get another job, and most of us are prepared to do so if needed. We may get a TA coming up here, but that doesn't mean we will vote YES for it. I won't vote YES for any TA allowing scope erosion. I won't.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

It'll never happen.

Delta ALPA knows that a strike = instant liquidation. I'm sorry (it sucks), but it's true, and they know it.

Nice little article from the BOYD group:

http://www.aviationplanning.com/asrc1.htm

[FONT=Tahoma, Verdan, Lucida]The Delta Situation[/FONT][FONT=Tahoma, Verdan, Lucida]
[/FONT][FONT=Tahoma, Verdan, Lucida]A "Strike" Isn't Possible, Anymore[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Verdan, Lucida]The media's full of stories on the potential for a pilot strike at Delta Air Lines. [/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Verdan, Lucida]Time for some perspective. Delta's pilot group has taken substantial compensation cuts over the past two years. Not once, but twice. Regardless of where they started before this crisis come along, there is a human cost when labor agrees to concessions. Telling your family that the household income is now 20% or 30% or 40% less isn't easy nor pleasant. [/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Verdan, Lucida]Unlike a lot of other airline jobs, the complex and sophisticated skills gained in a 20-year career as a pilot have limited direct transferability to other industries, or, due to seniority issues, transferability even within the airline industry, at least from a financial perspective. Jumping to another airline isn't really an option, as there simply are not many flying jobs out there. (Not all airline pilots, by the way, have successful side-businesses, as lore might have it.)[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Verdan, Lucida]But the reality is that the price of fuel has gone through the stratosphere - and that's a cost that nobody on either side of the bargaining table has much control over. At $65+ per barrel of oil, even carriers that took the bet and hedged a few years ago are facing a financial brick wall.[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Verdan, Lucida]It's the whole industry that's been nailed. American's pilots (and the rest of their employees) were caught in this squeeze play. Same at United, except they also got defrauded of their pensions to boot. So, the situation at Delta isn't specific to that airline. It's a set of realities that affect the entire industry. (Indignant e-mails railing about how WN is profitable will not be returned. We don't match wits with the unarmed and uninformed.) [/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Verdan, Lucida]Nevertheless, the way airlines have reacted to this cost crisis differs from carrier to carrier. There's no question that one can point to American, and ask the question why Delta's prior management didn't do what AA accomplished.[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Verdan, Lucida]But right now, that's water - or more correctly, money - under the bridge. It's a non-sequitur.[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Verdan, Lucida]The anger and hurt among Delta employees are not to be discounted. But that shouldn't mask the hard realities. To threaten a strike if an arbitration panel - one, by the way, that the union agreed to - rules a different way than the union wants, simply sends a message to the consumer: spend your money elsewhere. But this isn't a normal situation - anything that threatens to undermine consumer confidence can be lethal to an airline.[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Verdan, Lucida]So, unfortunately, in clear fact of reality, the strike option no longer exists for Delta's pilots union. True, they can walk off the job. But in this case, regardless of the legal interpretation, it won't be a strike.[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Verdan, Lucida]Typically, a strike is a valid and often effective negotiating tool to force the management team sitting on the other side of the bargaining table to move off their positions. A strike - as nasty as it can be - is a tool to change things for the future. But in this case, there is little doubt that in Delta's financial condition any major interruption to the airline's revenue stream would torpedo the carrier's future. And that specifically includes a situation where pilots walk off the job.[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Verdan, Lucida]This is reality. It makes no difference what the issues are on the bargaining table. It makes no difference how outrageous either side's demands and counter-demands may be. It makes no difference what's been done in the past. A lock-out or a strike could kill the airline in short order. The folks at the top of the Delta ALPA union know this full well. It's a rotten bargaining hand, but turning the table over and making sure that nobody works at Delta, isn't the way to go.[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Verdan, Lucida]The point is that the situation is so dire that using a strike as an option to move negotiations to another level simply is no longer possible. Therefore, no matter what happens, there won't be a "strike" per se. Delta's ALPA leaders know the financial score. They know that a work-stoppage now would be a one-time event where nobody comes back - not only the pilots, but over 40,000 other employees, too. Within the context of knowing what they surely know, if Delta's ALPA unit leaves the property, it will be the equivalent of an intentional and focused act that will put Delta out of business, not a strike. [/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Verdan, Lucida]This is not to diminish the situation that pilots at Delta, as well as other employees, face. Getting paychecks hammered, benefits cut, work rules changed, and in some cases one's pension trashed, are events that are nothing short of cataclysmic.[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Verdan, Lucida]But killing off Delta isn't a solution, and it's likely that everybody involved knows this. Delta's rank-and-file employees care about their airline, regardless of the posturing. Therefore, the best guess is that there will be a settlement. [/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Verdan, Lucida]Probably.[/FONT]

I hope there is a settlement. But, it won't pass if the TA suks. It won't. And if the company wants to bet on whether or not we will pull the trigger, they very well might lose. That would be unfortunate for everyone. Lee Moak already stated we would strike if the contract is thrown out, and he now has the authority to do that. The wheels are in motion if the contract is thrown out. Flying without a contract would be a lot worse than our current situation, and we all know that.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Jon Rivoli]

General,

If it were as simple as just raising fares, why don't they? I know everyone is running high load factors these days, Southwest and Airtran can only haul so many then people would have to pay. Sure seems simple. Are the marketing guys just stupid or am I missing something?

Regards,

Jon

 

[Tomct]

Jon...have you ever heard of Pan Am. One of my old instructors was a retired PA flyer and he said that the REASON that they went out of business was due to the lack of a DOMESTIC presence. Now I know that they would have DCI to feed them, but it would be tough to compete with WN and AT flying 50/70 seat jets. Who knows, but I DON'T believe that the Delta Pilots will FOLD!! They are going to give it to mgmnt on this one!!!!

 

[Tomct]

Jon Rivoli]General,

If it were as simple as just raising fares, why don't they? I know everyone is running high load factors these days, Southwest and Airtran can only haul so many then people would have to pay. Sure seems simple. Are the marketing guys just stupid or am I missing something?

Regards,

Jon


Yes jon, you are right, but if the other majors don't follow along, then it would only last a few weeks or they would lose more passengers. They would either have to go back to what everyone else is charging or they would not maintain the high load factors!

 

[General Lee]

General,

If it were as simple as just raising fares, why don't they? I know everyone is running high load factors these days, Southwest and Airtran can only haul so many then people would have to pay. Sure seems simple. Are the marketing guys just stupid or am I missing something?

Regards,

Jon

Jon,

We are raising fares. Look at the USAToday (I know, it is a third grade paper) front page today. It stated even Southwest has fares that are climbing faster than ever. So, we will be able to get through the Summer with more revenue, even with higher gas prices, because LCCs like Southwest are increasing fares. We can do it even more on INTL routes that have no competition. That is good.

Are the marketing guys stupid? Who thought of Simplifares? Even the CAL CFO stated in print that our revenue guys needed babysitting. Our new guy that came from CAL and Alitalia recently stated that our RASM was 15% lower than the other Majors last year, which could have equated to an extra $2.5 Billion in revenue. That could have helped our losses I am sure, wouldn't you think so?

I think you are right about Southwest and Airtran only being able to carry so many people due to their capacity, but it was tough to raise fares because NW was trying to get itself into a postition to ask all of their unions for pay cuts. They were the ones that usually stopped a Major fare hike--and we all knew that. It was a terrrible year for sure.

So, when it comes to asking for larger RJs, you have to wonder why we already have a TA on 100 seat rates. Why won't they order them? Lack of cash? Our CFO stated a few weeks ago that after we get out of Bk, a major 787 order could be on the way (?????). Well, how about get a few less of those, which would be replacement aircraft for the 767s eventually, and just get 50 E190s. I think it would be a great replacement for our 737-200s, and the would cause expansion since we have already had bids for people getting displaced off of the 737-200s. Maybe we could hire again someday after returning the furloughed pilots, which deserve a chance to come back.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[amcnd]

I know you will vote NO for any Scope TA GL.. But I think over 51% or you brothers will vote yes just to keep a job..

 

[Jon Rivoli]

I used to work with a bunch of ex-Pan Am guy's and they said the same thing; you could fly anywhere in the world on Pan Am from JFK or SFO, but you couldn't get to JFK or SFO on Pan Am. United's new model is to out source the narrow guage and focus on their strengths. UEX or code share, it doesn't matter who operates the flights you just need to sell the tickets. That is the market SGU is persuing, just look at the combined Skywest/ ASA route map. If you want to get somewhere you can get there on SKYW.