SkyWest Annual Report - CRJ900 Orders

[General Lee]

Millions and millions of dollars are waiting on the sidelines for the opportunity, should Delta shutdown, to grab market share in one of the largest hubs in the world. This is better then Vegas. The big money is hoping Delta shuts down because the rewards are tremendous.

Amex and the rest of the lenders have already hedged their bets. They win one way or the other. Its one thing to have non performing loans its another to grab a part of the cash cow that is the ATL airport whether it be Delta airlines or another carrier.

As far as Rj's parked for months. How about a week or so. Agreements between carriers and RJ operators would be drafted overnight if they aren't already. You guys would be a distant memory in a matter of 6 months.

Having said that, I still believe you should hold your ground and put an end to the race to the bottom. This is a worthwhile battle and ultimately there will be a negotiated settlement. The terms of that agreement are unpredictable at this time.

The Airport is the busiest because of DL. Take away the 2000 or whatever flights a day, and ATL would be slower than Orlando. We bring in an unbelievable amount of passengers from INTL locations to connect to all points around the US. Who will do that from ATL? Nobody. Not Airtran.

AMEX has 25 million Skymiles members. A main reason people use them is for free trips. They recently started a Jetblue version of the AMEX card, but that doesn't hit everyone in the DL system (people in LIT, SHV, GNV, BIL, HNL, etc) So, AMEX would lose business quickly to the Milleage Plus card or the AAAdvantage card, with other credit card companies. AMEX would not want that to happen at all. 25 million members. Say that outloud.

RJ operators would be sign in weeks, not months? Who wants the feed? Who? Not any LCCs, that is a fact. Name a legacy carrier that could move into ATL within a month and take over a large portion of the gates and use feed from hundreds of RJs? None. Only LCCs are getting enough planes to maybe start a good run at it, but they would take 5 or 6 gates at a time. Wow, ASA could fill up those planes at those 5 or 6 gates.....riiiiight. Nope, it would take months. And, Indy Air proved RJs can't go up against LCCs, and Airtran would still be in ATL, waiting to pounce on any RJ operator that wanted to try. That would be funny.

But, you are probably right, there may be a TA coming up here. That does NOT mean we have to take it. Lee Moak told Grinstein that at the hearing---to his face. He would "not be forced into a corner and accept a bad agreement." And, with the pension going bye bye soon (from the mouth of the DL lawyer), we have one less thing to argue about amongst ourselves. We will undoubtably wish for no more pay cuts, some eventual snap backs, credit for the pension dump in the form of some note (UAL got $550 million---not $330 million DL is offering), and scope protection.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[rjcap]

The Airport is the busiest because of DL. Take away the 2000 or whatever flights a day, and ATL would be slower than Orlando. We bring in an unbelievable amount of passengers from INTL locations to connect to all points around the US. Who will do that from ATL? Nobody. Not Airtran.

Intl business is only part of the void. The domestic capacity would be filled quickly and you bet Airtran has a contingency plan in place to grab as much mkt share as possible. It would only be a matter of time.

AMEX has 25 million Skymiles members. A main reason people use them is for free trips. They recently started a Jetblue version of the AMEX card, but that doesn't hit everyone in the DL system (people in LIT, SHV, GNV, BIL, HNL, etc) So, AMEX would lose business quickly to the Milleage Plus card or the AAAdvantage card, with other credit card companies. AMEX would not want that to happen at all. 25 million members. Say that outloud.

I said it three times - nothing happend. Should I click my heels also ??

Amex is hedged. They plan for these contingencies all the time. Your dealing with big money here and they hedge their bets. They're covered 5 ways to Sunday.

RJ operators would be sign in weeks, not months? Who wants the feed? Who? Not any LCCs, that is a fact. Name a legacy carrier that could move into ATL within a month and take over a large portion of the gates and use feed from hundreds of RJs? None. Only LCCs are getting enough planes to maybe start a good run at it, but they would take 5 or 6 gates at a time. Wow, ASA could fill up those planes at those 5 or 6 gates.....riiiiight. Nope, it would take months. And, Indy Air proved RJs can't go up against LCCs, and Airtran would still be in ATL, waiting to pounce on any RJ operator that wanted to try. That would be funny.

Where there is a void there will be operators to fill it. the only question is the speed at which that void would be filled. Executives are planning as we speak. They will be ready.

But, you are probably right, there may be a TA coming up here. That does NOT mean we have to take it. Lee Moak told Grinstein that at the hearing---to his face. He would "not be forced into a corner and accept a bad agreement." And, with the pension going bye bye soon (from the mouth of the DL lawyer), we have one less thing to argue about amongst ourselves. We will undoubtably wish for no more pay cuts, some eventual snap backs, credit for the pension dump in the form of some note (UAL got $550 million---not $330 million DL is offering), and scope protection.
Bye Bye--General Lee

Once again, I don't believe Delta will shutdown. I only disagree with you over the aftermath if such an event did take place. Delta is easily replaceable. Its only a matter of how long it would take.

One other thing. When are we going back to $40/barrel oil? That was another one of your grand predictions that we are all waiting on.

 

[General Lee]

Do you know how much INTL business we provide in ATL? It is a huge chunk, and a lot of those passengers connect on ASA or Comair planes. We fly to Europe, Asia, South America, and the Carribbean/Mexico. We just added Merida, Roatan, Acapulco, Ixtapa, Dusseldorf, and Tel Aviv this month alone. I guess Airtran will fly to those places next, with ASA feeding them.......

I think again you are wrong about AMEX and them having major contingency plans if the SkyMiles program goes away. They can't just switch it one day and say "Hey guys, sorry for the mix up, but now your miles are on Jetblue or Continental..." Nope. Each airline has their own credit card plan with a specific company, unless you do Capital One or something like that, which might be able to use any airline. AMEX gave us bridge loans (at high interest rates) to keep this thing going---probably because they make a huge amount of money from us. FOr you to say "they have made plans" is a wag. I hope they have, and Jetblue won't make them as much money as we do, since we have a lot more members. 25 million.

Airtran will probably fill the void somewhat, but they are full right now anyway. So are all the airlines, and they don't have a lot of extra planes to fill more. Sure, they could go to the boneyard and find some old DC9s or 737s, but it would take awhile to appropriate them, and then train for them. That would take months. To say otherwise is just plain wrong. I am so glad executives are planning as we speak. I haven't been that impressed with managements from any airline--so I wouldn't hold my breath they are planning for everything.

Again, I agree that DL will probably give a TA and we will eventually vote on it. As far as $40 a barrel oil, I only stated that when I printed actual articles with analysts prediciting that. Not all of them are correct---just watch the oil debates daily on CNBC.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[49W]

Airtran will probably fill the void somewhat, but they are full right now anyway. So are all the airlines, and they don't have a lot of extra planes to fill more. Sure, they could go to the boneyard and find some old DC9s or 737s, but it would take awhile to appropriate them, and then train for them. That would take months. To say otherwise is just plain wrong. I am so glad executives are planning as we speak. I haven't been that impressed with managements from any airline--so I wouldn't hold my breath they are planning for everything.


Bye Bye--General Lee

If Delta liquidates, their planes will be on the market immediately. Creditors will want to get what cash they can. Airtran or any other airline out there would have the opportunity to pick those up. I doubt Delta will fold, but if they did, it will be just another bump in the road of the airline industry. How much of a disaster was the closing of Eastern, Pan Am, or TWA to airline travel?

 

[CFIT]

If my knowledge is correct, Mesa has first options on EVERY SINGLE 900 that comes off the production line between now and December 2007...Hence Go Jets isn't getting the 900 contract that they underbid us on with USAirways.....they can't get any airplanes. Just Food for thought.

This is not true, all orders can be converted to a 90 hull prior to start, fact.

There are two crj90/705 without seats on the ramp at Meribel with ASA numbers and no seats, I have seen them, fact.

Jerry doesn't buy equipment he can't properly use, fact.

I think the SkyWest CEO has a better idea of what is going to happen than DALPA.

 

[BID]

10 year captian pay rate at SkyWest airlines is 74.00 per hour. this includes the lareger jets. (airlinepilotcentral.com)

At those rates, I think it is almost impossible for Jerry to not "properly" use such equipment? Remember, SkyWest received their information from guess who? Delta Management and I know those guys have been wrong once or twice before. Maybe Delta management underestimated DALPA?

Now I know you guys at SkyWest need to do what is best for your pilot group, improve your quality of life, upgrades etc. etc. etc. The guys at Delta will do the same. Heck at SkyWest you have no control over the equipment you will fly, it just shows up and you do your contract airline job. I am glad that at Delta Airlines, DALPA can at least put up a fight and try to keep the jobs at their company. Once again good luck Delta pilots!

 

[ohplease!]

Can you give me an example of a creditor just "giving" an airline a fast track to building a hub where an airline went under? How long would that take? And, all of the Major airlines out there are hurting financially due to fuel. That is where your logic has a major gap.


Bye Bye--General Lee

ATL after EAL closed....delta

MIA after EAL closed....AA

You're right about one thing, it would take a few months to completely replace DAL and that would probably mean some furloughs at ASA. However, I will (in this case) personally guarantee the passenger traffic out of ATL/CVG/SLC WILL be picked up by another major (or more than one) and the FACT STILL REMAINS: people from DHN, VLD, CHA, AGS, ETC. (as you and your cronies like to spew out over and over) will still be flying to and from those places meeting larger planes to go all over the place, even internationally. The only difference is you and your previously mentioned cronies would not be flying the planes. You'll be making us hamburgers and fries at Wendy's (your choice of a new career, remember telling me that?)

The biggest mistake you could make is believing you are NOT replaceable.

 

[ohplease!]

Heck at SkyWest you have no control over the equipment you will fly, it just shows up and you do your contract airline job. I am glad that at Delta Airlines, DALPA can at least put up a fight and try to keep the jobs at their company. Once again good luck Delta pilots!

Duh...you guy's don't have ANY control over what planes you're gonna fly either. DAL mgmt. is going to tell you what you will fly and you will either agree to show up and do YOUR CONTRACT FLYING (which is EXACTLY WHAT YOU GUY'S ARE) or someone else is gonna do it in your absence.