Rumor: Is United laying off 500 pilots this fall?

[PlaneDrvr]

I heard all airlines are going to ground all their fleets and go to Amish horse and buggy. Anyone going to Amish buggy school in PA? I heard we could get grants for a buggy type rating.

Damn, that's good news. Glad I never sold my stock shares in that 'buggy whip' company; I should be able to clean up.

PD

 

[Sonny Crockett]

CAL Continental Air profiled in Inside Wall Street section of Business Week (17.68 )

Business Week reports now that Northwest and Delta airlines have agreed to merge, expect more deals to take off. "In 30 days it is likely Continental Airlines (CAL) will either acquire or merge with UAL (UAUA)," says Vincent Carrino, president of sBrookhaven Capital Management, which has accumulated shares of both. The surging price of oil has wreaked havoc on the airlines' earnings and sunk their stock. Carrino says the big impetus for consolidation is to let the airlines slash capacity (number of flights and seats) by 10% and boost fares to cope with the rising price of oil, which hit $119 a barrel on Apr. 22. Carrino predicts UAL will be the surviving company, with Continental's management taking charge. Both airlines have a solid foothold overseas, especially in Asia,

 

[Speedtape]

Hmmm? Not sure what your staffing formula is, but:

Parking 30 airplanes in the Fall?
Under most staffing formulas, that will definitely affect at least 300 to 360 Pilots, alone.

Mgmt is saying there will be no pilot furloughs at this time?
Well, first, there is no way they would make a forecast of furlough at this time! They need a motivated work force--at least through the Summer!

The enviornment is very dynamic and no one knows what may happen in the future, especially in the Fall?
Of course not--at least with no certainty! However, if you look at present trends--things will get worse, before they get better! Those trends will continue as long as gas prices continue to rise. On top of that, we have only seen the tip of the iceberg of problems and collateral damage from the sub-prime rate debacle.

Summer travel is forecasted to be strong?
According to earlier reports in the last 6 months, this summer was predicted to be one of the strongest in history! However, that was based on advanced look-out for Summer bookings in the industry! Although many of those reservations were made and reflected in those forecasts, in most cases passengers have not laid out the cash. In addition, due to monumentous turn in gas prices and othe economic influences, those reservations can be cancelled and advanced bookings may not appear as strong with a shorter window outlook.

Summer traffic forecast?
Demand has slackened, but the numbers are still strong--for Summer! Every airline will be trying to capture every dollar they can this Summer! In regard to post-Summer capacity, Delta and others have already announced capacity reductions for the Fall--some in the 10% range. Generally, less capacity means less airplanes. Less airplanes generally means less crews needed. Less crews needed, generally mean furloughs. Connect the dots.

What is UAL furlough behavior in the past?
Look at history! If there is one airline that gets out in front of the curve, it's UAL! They usually are very aggressive when the time comes!

American is calling back this Summer?
American has been working with a bare bones staffing for a couple of years. In about late February or early March, 100's of eligible Senior Captains took their lump sums and retired! That was probably a very wise move on their part! American is the only airline that kept their pensions intact by giving concessions early, and avoiding Bankruptcy! The Pilots who just retired, made a wise move in their personal situation, because American could still be forced into Bankruptcy--under the new laws, not the old ones that existed 2 years ago! American is calling back furloughees to replace those 100's that retired. According to some, American may even have to hire, as many of the furloughees have moved on to FedX and UPS.

What does the future hold for our Profession?
If you are on the bottom of any carrier, the future looks terrible. There will be furloughs, and there probably will be more airline failures! This industry cannot survive at these oil levels! Like an epidemic, the weakest will go first! Any pilot shortage that may have existed over the last year, will soon end. There will be plenty of pilots--but not enough jobs, if any.

Fall is coming! Be prepared. This industry may not be an environment for a viable longterm Profession in the near future--if it ever was in the last 30 years since deregulation.

 

[saabservant]

I'm working on my plan "B" this month, and have not even finished training at UAL!
I can hear Lucy right now:"Boy, are you stupid, Charlie Brown".

How about we find and hang all oil speculators, and their political lackeys?

 

[contrail67]

I just heard that United was definately not going to furlough.

That is what I heard too....and so far it is true...keep the positive outlook...some of these guys are just plain depressing. Guess if you have nothing to look forward to...then I kinda understand.

 

[contrail67]

Hmmm? Not sure what your staffing formula is, but:

Parking 30 airplanes in the Fall?
Under most staffing formulas, that will definitely affect at least 300 to 360 Pilots, alone.

Mgmt is saying there will be no pilot furloughs at this time?
Well, first, there is no way they would make a forecast of furlough at this time! They need a motivated work force--at least through the Summer!

The enviornment is very dynamic and no one knows what may happen in the future, especially in the Fall?
Of course not--at least with no certainty! However, if you look at present trends--things will get worse, before they get better! Those trends will continue as long as gas prices continue to rise. On top of that, we have only seen the tip of the iceberg of problems and collateral damage from the sub-prime rate debacle.

Summer travel is forecasted to be strong?
According to earlier reports in the last 6 months, this summer was predicted to be one of the strongest in history! However, that was based on advanced look-out for Summer bookings in the industry! Although many of those reservations were made and reflected in those forecasts, in most cases passengers have not laid out the cash. In addition, due to monumentous turn in gas prices and othe economic influences, those reservations can be cancelled and advanced bookings may not appear as strong with a shorter window outlook.

Summer traffic forecast?
Demand has slackened, but the numbers are still strong--for Summer! Every airline will be trying to capture every dollar they can this Summer! In regard to post-Summer capacity, Delta and others have already announced capacity reductions for the Fall--some in the 10% range. Generally, less capacity means less airplanes. Less airplanes generally means less crews needed. Less crews needed, generally mean furloughs. Connect the dots.

What is UAL furlough behavior in the past?
Look at history! If there is one airline that gets out in front of the curve, it's UAL! They usually are very aggressive when the time comes!

American is calling back this Summer?
American has been working with a bare bones staffing for a couple of years. In about late February or early March, 100's of eligible Senior Captains took their lump sums and retired! That was probably a very wise move on their part! American is the only airline that kept their pensions intact by giving concessions early, and avoiding Bankruptcy! The Pilots who just retired, made a wise move in their personal situation, because American could still be forced into Bankruptcy--under the new laws, not the old ones that existed 2 years ago! American is calling back furloughees to replace those 100's that retired. According to some, American may even have to hire, as many of the furloughees have moved on to FedX and UPS.

What does the future hold for our Profession?
If your on the bottom of any carrier, the future looks terrible. There will be furloughs, and there probably will be more airline failures! This industry cannot survive at these oil levels! Like an epidemic, the weakest will go first! Any pilot shortage that may have existed over the last year, will soon end. There will be plenty of pilots--but not enough jobs, if any.

Fall is coming! Be prepared. This industry may not be an environment for a viable longterm Profession in the near future--if it ever was in the last 30 years since deregulation.

It is stupid for them to furlough even 100 or so if they are not able to jump at a upward swing in the present state of our economy.

They know they would need pilots to aggressively take advantage of any opportunity that might arise...and on the street is not where they want them.

 

[On Your Six]

I'm working on my plan "B" this month, and have not even finished training at UAL!
I can hear Lucy right now:"Boy, are you stupid, Charlie Brown".

How about we find and hang all oil speculators, and their political lackeys?

I hate to say it, but anyone who has come to UAL in the last 6 months should have known full well that a merger with CAL (or another partner) was possible. Frankly I am surprised that anyone would leave a senior position at a regional (if that was your situation) for an airline that:

• Has had ZERO growth prospects (slow moving seniority - being on the bottom for years is a real possibility)
• Has a somewhat precarious financial situation (sure, cash on hand is pretty good, but margins have been cut)
• Has been looking for merger partners for months and months (integrations are never pretty as we have seen with AWA/US)

Why would someone put themselves through the torture of working on the bottom at UAL given the current economic circumstances? Just the threat of a merger integration would be enough to keep me away. I used to work at UAL (laid off right after 9/11) and I would never trust those guys to put employees first. I can't imagine leaving a good regional position where you have some seniority buffer for the very bottom of a major airline that is angling for a merger.

Well, I wish you luck with your Plan B. I think that is a good idea. Maybe you could get your Airbus type and shop it to some of the Indian airlines or find a good corporate/fractional position.

 

[Speedtape]

That is what I heard too....and so far it is true...keep the positive outlook...some of these guys are just plain depressing. Guess if you have nothing to look forward to...then I kinda understand.

Sorry, fellow aviator! Have you ever heard of the "Ostrich Theory?" When trouble lurks, an Ostrich will find a hole in the ground and stick it's head in the hole to avoid danger, thinking if it does not look at danger, danger will go away. All the while a hyena chews the Ostrich's arse away. Prepare for your uncertain future! Like even the Boy Scouts say: "Be Prepared!"

 

[Speedtape]

It is stupid for them to furlough even 100 or so if they are not able to jump at a upward swing in the present state of our economy.

They know they would need pilots to aggressively take advantage of any opportunity that might arise...and on the street is not where they want them.

Just curious? What upward swing in the economy are you expecting? Check your situational awareness and avoid denial! The only reason things are not being reported more acurately, is that an election is on the horizon. After the elections, a recession will be declared and by that time time, things will be much worse! Good Luck! If you are waiting for the Warning Light to come on before you respond, it will be too late!

 

[pilotgolfer]

That is what I heard too....and so far it is true...keep the positive outlook...some of these guys are just plain depressing. Guess if you have nothing to look forward to...then I kinda understand.

Have you been talking to my 5 year old? Thats who I heard it from.