Retirement Numbers? Again

[Utah]

I know it comes up every once in a while, but if anyone has them could you provide year to year retirement numbers for the various airlines out there. SW, CAL, Jetblue, Delta, UA, UPS, Alaska, etc.

 

[FreightNazi]

Does it really matter for you? Like, would you really turn down one of the above because of low retirement numbers?

 

[Utah]

Jetblue already has on their seniority list all the Airbus captains they'll need for the 200 total 320s they might wind up with. If they don't retire a bunch in the next 5-10 years in might not be worth the jump.

Delta has what a couple hundered left over the age of 50? If their fleet stays stable and they start to hire in a year or two - maybe a 15 year upgrade?

UA. I believe I'd seen something else only calling for 1100 retirements in the next 10 years out of 8000 on the seniority list.

If I had 30-35 years left in the industry it might not matter. With only 21 left I'd rather go a place with a lot of growth and retirements. SW or Cal as an example, just looking for some hard numbers.

 

[coex]

I know it comes up every once in a while, but if anyone has them could you provide year to year retirement numbers for the various airlines out there. SW, CAL, Jetblue, Delta, UA, UPS, Alaska, etc.

You can go here for UA, CAL and AirTran
http://www.seniorityforecast.com

 

[Andy]

UA. I believe I'd seen something else only calling for 1100 retirements in the next 10 years out of 8000 on the seniority list.

The overall seniority list is ~8650.
The age 60 retirements over the next 10 yrs is ~2500.
You can possibly knock another 1000 off the list for those that don't return from furlough.

 

[av8instyle]

Alaska has 1500 ish pilots.
Averaging 50 retirements/yr indefinitely.
Maybe a few more in the near term for early outs.

 

[Green]

Us Airways will have a mass exodus during the next ten years or so. My guess is that they will hire in the next 1-2 years. With a $300 million quarterly profit and A-350's on order it could be a good place to be.

 

[Bavarian Chef]

Jetblue already has on their seniority list all the Airbus captains they'll need for the 200 total 320s they might wind up with. If they don't retire a bunch in the next 5-10 years in might not be worth the jump.

Delta has what a couple hundered left over the age of 50? If their fleet stays stable and they start to hire in a year or two - maybe a 15 year upgrade?

UA. I believe I'd seen something else only calling for 1100 retirements in the next 10 years out of 8000 on the seniority list.

If I had 30-35 years left in the industry it might not matter. With only 21 left I'd rather go a place with a lot of growth and retirements. SW or Cal as an example, just looking for some hard numbers.

Believe it or not I think we had around 5 retirements this past year. I would not count on retirements at jb though when it comes to hiring forecasts.

 

[DAL737FO]

Here are the numbers for Delta until July 2028. Most of our senior guys have already retired. We will need expansion if you are looking for a shorter upgrade time. Also if the age 60 rule changes these numbers will change.

2006 6
2007 30
2008 60
2009 71
2010 91
2011 132
2012 159
2013 221
2014 268
2015 336
2016 476
2017 559
2018 527
2019 522
2020 458
2021 397
2022 297
2023 278
2024 258
2025 281
2026 233
2027 157
2028 70

 

[michael707767]

Here are the numbers for Delta until July 2028. Most of our senior guys have already retired. We will need expansion if you are looking for a shorter upgrade time. Also if the age 60 rule changes these numbers will change.

2006 6
2007 30
2008 60
2009 71
2010 91
2011 132
2012 159
2013 221
2014 268
2015 336
2016 476

which adds up to well over a thousand pilots still on the list who are over age 50. A bit more than a couple hundred.

 

[Truckdriver]

Jetblue already has on their seniority list all the Airbus captains they'll need for the 200 total 320s they might wind up with. If they don't retire a bunch in the next 5-10 years in might not be worth the jump.

However, you could end up as a senior E190 CA and easily make over 100K per year. That is a much better gig than sticking around at a regional. I work at a regional under the best paying contract in the regional world, and if I work close to 100 hours per month I still only make about 95K. A320 CA will come to those being hired now it just won't come in 2.5 years like it has been. In the mean time 100K per year with 16 days off as a 190 CA while waiting for a 320 CA slot is probably about as good as hanging as an FO at another mainline carrier waiting to upgrade there. But you are right, number wise they are close to having all the future 320 CA's hired.

 

[Truckdriver]

I think CAL and SWA are really the only places with "massive" retirements coming up in the next few years. I'm not sure what the SWA numbers are so they might not be as massive as those at CAL. A CAL-UAL merger will stop the fun at CAL very quickly. Not to mention the age 60 rule which will be changed here within a year.

 

[Green]

I think CAL and SWA are really the only places with "massive" retirements coming up in the next few years. I'm not sure what the SWA numbers are so they might not be as massive as those at CAL. A CAL-UAL merger will stop the fun at CAL very quickly. Not to mention the age 60 rule which will be changed here within a year.

I'll have to disagree with you on that one. Without trying to sound like a broken record there are lots of retirements coming up at AAA in the next few years. I believe the most junior fo on the east side has about 17 years of seniority....Of course we aren't hiring and Dougie has been pretty vocal about his intention to explore further mergers. He sure made a killing so far with this present one so why stop now?

 

[donger]

FedEx Retirement predictions

2006 69
2007 148
2008 159
2009 155
2010 134
2011 163
2012 157
2013 189
2014 185
2015 156
2016 179
2017 209
2018 210
2019 215
2020 205
2021 225
2022 184
2023 165
2024 151
2025 116
2026 135
2027 123
2028 130
2029 131
2030 91

 

[JetMonkey]

I'll have to disagree with you on that one. Without trying to sound like a broken record there are lots of retirements coming up at AAA in the next few years. I believe the most junior fo on the east side has about 17 years of seniority....Of course we aren't hiring and Dougie has been pretty vocal about his intention to explore further mergers. He sure made a killing so far with this present one so why stop now?

Green's right, the "massive" retirements at combined USAir/AWA is larger than at Cal, maybe not in the next couple of years but looking over a ten year span it's definately more. Here's a chart that breaks it down.

US AIRWAYS PILOT RETIREMENTS (AGE 60) BY MONTH AND YEARRETIREIN:JANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECTOTALSAWA COMBINERUNNING200610131491617121615181722179392182182007172320111718242510172019221532744922008131619141310161617188201805523572720092120169171615212217261921955274100120101510172211915201414182218751238123920111692423192523161917222023338271151120121616222126263018161616222455730218132013291819172524232129291316263463092122201425301623142721182623192326558323244520151918141817202822172519112285127927242016191823191717211522152214222

 

[JetMonkey]

oops, sorry bout that.

year---AAA--AWA--TOTAL--RUNNING

2006---179----39-----218-------218
2007---221----53-----274-------492
2008---180----55-----235-------727
2009---219----55-----274------1001
2010---187----51-----238------1239
2011---233----38-----271------1511
2012---245----57-----302------1813
2013---263----46-----309------2122
2014---265----58-----323------2445
2015---228----51-----279------2724

Of course we all know what'll happen if the age rule changes and if our fearless leader decides to merge again.