Retirement Chart/Graph?

[pilotyip]

3-4000 pilot retirements in the ENTIRE industry at legacy airlines over the next 3-4 years and you call it a boom? There are at least that many RJ FO's at the new Express Jet with apps out...

For every major pilot job created, another 4-5 jobs at the levels below are created, so 3,000 to 4,000 major jobs will create 12,000 to 20,000 total pilot jobs. The slack will be absorbed by 2015 and then we will see aa major shift in major hiring, because the big 65 retirements don't really start hitting until around 2017.

Lets check in again on this subject in 2-3 years and see what is happening. Of course it is all a guess, like the DOW of 17K, but you have to make an assumption on something in order to plan.

 

[ualdriver]

For every major pilot job created, another 4-5 jobs at the levels below are created, so 3,000 to 4,000 major jobs will create 12,000 to 20,000 total pilot jobs. The slack will be absorbed by 2015 and then we will see aa major shift in major hiring, because the big 65 retirements don't really start hitting until around 2017.

Lets check in again on this subject in 2-3 years and see what is happening. Of course it is all a guess, like the DOW of 17K, but you have to make an assumption on something in order to plan.

I think you're confusing "jobs" with "movements." For example, if a 65 year old widebody Captain retires at a major airline, that creates several movements below him/her as a chain reaction of upgrades occur to fill that now vacant seat. That chain reaction goes all the way from the Delta Captain to the Mesa First Officer theoretically. But if 1,000 pilots retire and all else is equal, that only creates the need for 1,000 new pilots, not some multiple of 1,000.

I'm glad you're quantifying your predictions now as a guess. It's all a guess, including the pilot shortage of 2012 that didn't even come close to materializing.

One of my favorite books is called, "The Fortune Sellers" by William Sherden. In that book, he writes how human beings are HORRIBLE at predicting the future, and uses real world examples to illustrate his points. After having read that book and some similar ones, I read any intermediate to long-term predictions for what they really are......as entertainment only. That also goes for "pilot shortage" predictions.

 

[pilotyip]

I'm glad you're quantifying your predictions now as a guess. It's all a guess, including the pilot shortage of 2012 that didn't even come close to materializing.

One of my favorite books is called, "The Fortune Sellers" by William Sherden. In that book, he writes how human beings are HORRIBLE at predicting the future, and uses real world examples to illustrate his points. After having read that book and some similar ones, I read any intermediate to long-term predictions for what they really are......as entertainment only. That also goes for "pilot shortage" predictions.

I have not used the term pilot shortage since being beat up by Avbug about 4 years ago. But have experienced a growth in jobs this year, hiring is better than 2011, and 2010. I guess it depends upon how you define boom, 250 lb bomb goes boom, so does a 2000 lb bomb.

BTW Guessing is what we all do everyday, without making informed guesses about the future we take no action. Heuristic assumptions is what statisticians those guesses. For example in Mar 2009 I made guess that the markets had pretty much bottomed out, so I invested heavily in Energy, Real Estate and Finance. It turned out to be a good guess, but I had to make a guess.