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Some months ago, someone posted a really great chart or graph for upcoming retirements at all U.S. carriers. I've looked but cannot find it. Anyone know where I might find it or a link to another page? I think it was posted shortly after Delta's TA was ratified.
Thanks!
All part of the coming hiring boom
All part of the coming hiring boom
All part of the coming hiring boom
I guess it depends upon one's definition of "boom", There is the Mk 81 250# boom and the there is the "Tall Man" 20KT "Boom". Hiring is growing it is well ahead of 2011, AND 2010, maybe not making the impact at the majors everyone would like, but it is growing.Well, you blew your oft repeated "2012" hiring boom which never happened. 2013 isn't starting off too well with a bunch of Pinnacle guys likely to be shown the door in a best case scenario for them. But I guess if you keep repeating that there is going to be a hiring boom, eventually you will be right.
And again, when a industry simply replaces workers that are retiring, it is hardly a "hiring boom."
Well, you blew your oft repeated "2012" hiring boom which never happened. 2013 isn't starting off too well with a bunch of Pinnacle guys likely to be shown the door in a best case scenario for them. But I guess if you keep repeating that there is going to be a hiring boom, eventually you will be right.
And again, when a industry simply replaces workers that are retiring, it is hardly a "hiring boom."
Right poverty wages that start above all of the regional and many of the majors. Remember we are a place you pay your dues, we are a place you come to with 500TT and 100 ME before you go to work for a career position.Shortage of pilots at the majors? Never. Shortage of pilots willing to work for poverty wages flying Falcons out of YIP (or any regional for that matter)? Oh yeah.
Supply and demand 101, if they increase pay, there will be no shortage.
The bottom feeders have been taking advantage of guys for too long, time for their comeuppance.
All part of the coming hiring boom
For every major pilot job created, another 4-5 jobs at the levels below are created, so 3,000 to 4,000 major jobs will create 12,000 to 20,000 total pilot jobs. The slack will be absorbed by 2015 and then we will see aa major shift in major hiring, because the big 65 retirements don't really start hitting until around 2017.3-4000 pilot retirements in the ENTIRE industry at legacy airlines over the next 3-4 years and you call it a boom? There are at least that many RJ FO's at the new Express Jet with apps out...
For every major pilot job created, another 4-5 jobs at the levels below are created, so 3,000 to 4,000 major jobs will create 12,000 to 20,000 total pilot jobs. The slack will be absorbed by 2015 and then we will see aa major shift in major hiring, because the big 65 retirements don't really start hitting until around 2017.
Lets check in again on this subject in 2-3 years and see what is happening. Of course it is all a guess, like the DOW of 17K, but you have to make an assumption on something in order to plan.
I have not used the term pilot shortage since being beat up by Avbug about 4 years ago. But have experienced a growth in jobs this year, hiring is better than 2011, and 2010. I guess it depends upon how you define boom, 250 lb bomb goes boom, so does a 2000 lb bomb.I'm glad you're quantifying your predictions now as a guess. It's all a guess, including the pilot shortage of 2012 that didn't even come close to materializing.
One of my favorite books is called, "The Fortune Sellers" by William Sherden. In that book, he writes how human beings are HORRIBLE at predicting the future, and uses real world examples to illustrate his points. After having read that book and some similar ones, I read any intermediate to long-term predictions for what they really are......as entertainment only. That also goes for "pilot shortage" predictions.