Retirement Chart/Graph?

[pilotyip]

Well, you blew your oft repeated "2012" hiring boom which never happened. 2013 isn't starting off too well with a bunch of Pinnacle guys likely to be shown the door in a best case scenario for them. But I guess if you keep repeating that there is going to be a hiring boom, eventually you will be right.

And again, when a industry simply replaces workers that are retiring, it is hardly a "hiring boom."

I guess it depends upon one's definition of "boom", There is the Mk 81 250# boom and the there is the "Tall Man" 20KT "Boom". Hiring is growing it is well ahead of 2011, AND 2010, maybe not making the impact at the majors everyone would like, but it is growing.

 

[SIG600]

Well, you blew your oft repeated "2012" hiring boom which never happened. 2013 isn't starting off too well with a bunch of Pinnacle guys likely to be shown the door in a best case scenario for them. But I guess if you keep repeating that there is going to be a hiring boom, eventually you will be right.

And again, when a industry simply replaces workers that are retiring, it is hardly a "hiring boom."

Shortage of pilots at the majors? Never. Shortage of pilots willing to work for poverty wages flying Falcons out of YIP (or any regional for that matter)? Oh yeah.

Supply and demand 101, if they increase pay, there will be no shortage.

The bottom feeders have been taking advantage of guys for too long, time for their comeuppance.

 

[pilotyip]

Shortage of pilots at the majors? Never. Shortage of pilots willing to work for poverty wages flying Falcons out of YIP (or any regional for that matter)? Oh yeah.

Supply and demand 101, if they increase pay, there will be no shortage.

The bottom feeders have been taking advantage of guys for too long, time for their comeuppance.

Right poverty wages that start above all of the regional and many of the majors. Remember we are a place you pay your dues, we are a place you come to with 500TT and 100 ME before you go to work for a career position.

Here is a short list where the JUS DA-20 pilots have gone, DAL, UAL, FedEx, UPS, NJ (by dozens') JB, AT, SWA, Atlas, Allegiance, Spirit (again by the dozens)

And what is really amazing when these guys were furloughed following 9-11, they wanted to come back to work for us. Because they were great guys, we brought them back at the bottom of the seniority list, some ever were laid so long they were with us longer the second time than the first time. Many made Captain again.

It will take a pilot approximately 10 years to get to a job that will allow to start making QOL a goal in a job search. Pilots get hired at good places because they have Turbine PIC, you must build turbine PIC to have control over your career. You have to go wherever that job is that gets you turbine PIC. You stay in that job until you can get another job that gives you better turbine PIC, i.e. Bigger airplanes, Turbojet, 121, etc. It is called paying your dues everyone must do it. Some do it in the military, some do it at the regionals, and some do in the on-demand business. Everyone pays his or her dues.BTW: Unless of course your father is a senior Captain at a major and you get to bypass this process. uke:

 

[Snaab]

http://img541.imageshack.us/img541/5797/majorairlinemandatoryre.png

Thank you very much!

 

[HA25]

All part of the coming hiring boom

3-4000 pilot retirements in the ENTIRE industry at legacy airlines over the next 3-4 years and you call it a boom? There are at least that many RJ FO's at the new Express Jet with apps out...

 

[pilotyip]

3-4000 pilot retirements in the ENTIRE industry at legacy airlines over the next 3-4 years and you call it a boom? There are at least that many RJ FO's at the new Express Jet with apps out...

For every major pilot job created, another 4-5 jobs at the levels below are created, so 3,000 to 4,000 major jobs will create 12,000 to 20,000 total pilot jobs. The slack will be absorbed by 2015 and then we will see aa major shift in major hiring, because the big 65 retirements don't really start hitting until around 2017.

Lets check in again on this subject in 2-3 years and see what is happening. Of course it is all a guess, like the DOW of 17K, but you have to make an assumption on something in order to plan.

 

[ualdriver]

For every major pilot job created, another 4-5 jobs at the levels below are created, so 3,000 to 4,000 major jobs will create 12,000 to 20,000 total pilot jobs. The slack will be absorbed by 2015 and then we will see aa major shift in major hiring, because the big 65 retirements don't really start hitting until around 2017.

Lets check in again on this subject in 2-3 years and see what is happening. Of course it is all a guess, like the DOW of 17K, but you have to make an assumption on something in order to plan.

I think you're confusing "jobs" with "movements." For example, if a 65 year old widebody Captain retires at a major airline, that creates several movements below him/her as a chain reaction of upgrades occur to fill that now vacant seat. That chain reaction goes all the way from the Delta Captain to the Mesa First Officer theoretically. But if 1,000 pilots retire and all else is equal, that only creates the need for 1,000 new pilots, not some multiple of 1,000.

I'm glad you're quantifying your predictions now as a guess. It's all a guess, including the pilot shortage of 2012 that didn't even come close to materializing.

One of my favorite books is called, "The Fortune Sellers" by William Sherden. In that book, he writes how human beings are HORRIBLE at predicting the future, and uses real world examples to illustrate his points. After having read that book and some similar ones, I read any intermediate to long-term predictions for what they really are......as entertainment only. That also goes for "pilot shortage" predictions.

 

[pilotyip]

I'm glad you're quantifying your predictions now as a guess. It's all a guess, including the pilot shortage of 2012 that didn't even come close to materializing.

One of my favorite books is called, "The Fortune Sellers" by William Sherden. In that book, he writes how human beings are HORRIBLE at predicting the future, and uses real world examples to illustrate his points. After having read that book and some similar ones, I read any intermediate to long-term predictions for what they really are......as entertainment only. That also goes for "pilot shortage" predictions.

I have not used the term pilot shortage since being beat up by Avbug about 4 years ago. But have experienced a growth in jobs this year, hiring is better than 2011, and 2010. I guess it depends upon how you define boom, 250 lb bomb goes boom, so does a 2000 lb bomb.

BTW Guessing is what we all do everyday, without making informed guesses about the future we take no action. Heuristic assumptions is what statisticians those guesses. For example in Mar 2009 I made guess that the markets had pretty much bottomed out, so I invested heavily in Energy, Real Estate and Finance. It turned out to be a good guess, but I had to make a guess.