Cl65,
While I agree with alot of what you say, I would have to disagree with your anology that this downturn is somewhat similar to that of the early 90s (minus the 9/11 event). I was also around during the early 90s downturn and have 27 years left to retirement. I can honestly say the downturn we are experiencing now is the worst in history. It has been nearly two years from 9/11 and the begining of the furloughs that were a result, and United, American, and NWA are still furloughing. Back in the early 90s most furloughs occured over a short period of time (less than a year) and most airlines were already recalling some of their pilots within two years. Heck, United did not even furlough any pilots during the early 90s downturn. Two years after 9/11 there have been no recalls, and no plans of recalls.
Us Airways has over 1800 on furlough, United has over 1800 (as of 9/30) with 100 a month being furloughed after 9/30 until sometime next spring for a total of somwhere around 2400, American has over 1600 furloughed with a whopping 2000 more to be shown the door, Continental seems the best positioned to begin recalling within the next few years with only 637 furloughed, NWA has 788 with another 305 furloughs at the end of this year, Delta has 1310 on the street. For the Big six nearly 23% of their pilots are on the street. In terms of numbers and percentage of pilots furloughed it has never been worse. And this number doesn't include any furloughs that may occur when or if NWA and Delta and their pilots union's come to a concession agreement that includes changes to work rules, I hope it doesn't happen because someone needs to hold the line. Add this to the fact that there appears to be no great uptick in the economy, the summer was lackluster as far as revenues go, and we are heading into the traditionally slowest time of the year for air travel and it doesn't look as promising as some of us would like it to.
These are the number that some of us that are furloughed from the majors have been looking at while we try to figure out what to do. Doesn't look too great. And for us that are on the bottom half of these seniority lists it looks worse. I am absolutely positive that I will make more career earnings staying the next twenty seven years at my current Airline (knock on wood) than waiting for my recall which I know will take at least another 5-7 years minimum (its already been two years). With the new work rules instituted at my old airline they won't need pilots that are at the bottom of the seniority list for a very long time and to only then make a slow progression to the top of that list making B-scale type wages. I crunched the numbers forwards and backwards, what else do you have to do when your unemployed

You are right. I never planned to make my career flying airplanes that were smaller than a 747, but those were dreams of a teenager/pre-teen who knew nothing of this industry and what turmoil that came with it at times. It is all about timing and if your timing ain't right you need to readjust and move on.
I am not trying to be a chicken little here, but these are the facts. I do agree with a previous post that it really depends on your individual situation. I had a couple of people from my new hire class at the major I worked for that were 24 or 25 with no families (wife and kids). They are only 26 or 27 now and will be able to hold out for a longer time, than say someone like me who is 33 with commitments. It all depends, but the grass is definetly greener on the other side of the fence for me and probably many others. Good luck everyone.