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Republic - The NEW US Airways?

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Saluki Dawg

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 16, 2002
Posts
395
It's been known for weeks now that Bedford is getting rid of the Midwest brand and was expected to announce a new name for the combined Airline within the next few months. It is also known although not heavily advertised that BB purchased a large number of Slots at DCA and LGA from US in order for them to emerge from BK.

Now I know this is a long walk but try to stay with me. If you remember how BB got Midwest and Frontier, he had similar deals with both of these companies. Basically, don't worry about all the money we loaned you guys, just sell to us and we will forgive all that debt. All of a sudden, BB just bought himself two Airlines within months of each other without spending much of RAH's money. They kept their Airplanes flying and still kept their valuable Fee for Depature Business intact.

Now BB has a potential branding problem WRT which brand he decides to keep. If he keeps the Midwest brand, he runs the risk of alienating Frontiers passengers in Denver, if he keeps Frontier brand, the same thing potentially happens in Milwaukee. If he goes with Republic, he runs the risk of no one recognizing the brand from when Herman the Duck was flying the skies in the 70's and 80's. So what does BB do? He needs a nationally recognizable brand name. He also needs an Airline that is desparate to merge and grow, and I'm sure that he want's to protect all those E170's that currently have the Flag on their tail from being dumped by his biggest customer at their next earliest convenience.

Now how does all this come together potentially. Well, knowing Bedford, I think he will go to Parker and just have a friendly chat about all the "SYNERGIES" the NEW Airline would bring to the table. If that doesn't work, then I think he would just go for the more direct approach of demanding RAH's newly acquired slots back at DCA and LGA so that the NEW Republic Airways can start doing their own flying out of those markets. At that point, Parker with a gun to his head has no choice but to announce the MERGER not Sale or Acquisition to RAH.

All of a sudden Bedford has himself an Airline flying everything from E135's to A330's, with a pretty respectable Route Network in the lower 48 and access to Codesharing Globally through Star Alliance. He keeps nearly 2/3rd's of his lucrative Fee for Departure contracts in place with both United and the NEW US Airways, and he is able to whipsaw all of his work groups against each other to keep his labor costs down.

Now I'm not saying that this is going to happen, or that I want it to happen. I'm just posing a theory about what Bedford could potentially do if left to his own devices. Don't underestimate what this man is capable of. What he's been able to do so far has guys like Frank Lorenzo and Carl Icahn beaming with pride.

So what do you all think of this potential scenario?
 
the integration of the airline would destroy the whole company. I'm not convinced that the integration between F9,YX, RAH wont be a complete disaster by itself. Throw in USAIR and its problems and it would end very ugly imho.
 
Well if you're Doug Parker who else is going to take a look at your airline....nobody; so anything's possible.
 
Tragic but Entertaining

Well, it might be tragic, but in a sick sort of way it would be entertaining to watch it play out. I can't imagine the labor discontent among the pilots. Add Frontier, Midwest, Republic et al to the America West - Airways East disaster....wow. This would be a golden opportunity for a reality show/documentary on pilot infighting. Bedford might even go for it if a network with the right amount of money came along wanting to film flight crews in operations, on overnights, etc.
 
Probably not going to happen. The slots Republic purchased were attached to a no compete agreement, meaning they must be used in the framework of a capacity purchase agreement. The scope clauses of both pilot groups also prevent the use of the US Airways code by Republic for anything larger than 86 seats. A full integration would have to take place to get around these scope provisions. The AWA/AAA pilot groups are still on different planets over 5 years later.

Bringing US Airways on doesn't solve the overcapacity issues facing RAH in both Denver and Milwaukee.

Parker is on record saying a merger only makes sense with one of the other big 5 network carriers.

It would have to be a hostile takeover as US Airways is not bankrupt and Parker isn't going to sell to them. US Airways still has 2.1 billion in the bank. Not a whole lot compared to the rest of the industry, but enough to keep from going into BK. Check the stock price lately, it's no longer that cheap for RAH to buy.

The whole Republic thing is a wet dream of the East pilots who cling to the hope that the West is sold to RAH and the "real" airline pilots are integrated with American or United. Pure fantasy. But not any more delusional than the entire USAPA experiment.
 
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Interesting...but one major problem $$$$$$$.......This isn't 2005 and banks dont have the cash to be throwing around to pull this off. It's an interesting perspective but this would take a landslide of cash and I'm not sure where it would come from.
 
Probably not going to happen. The slots Republic purchased were attached to a no compete agreement, meaning they must be used in the framework of a capacity purchase agreement. The scope clauses of both pilot groups also prevent the use of the US Airways code by Republic for anything larger than 86 seats. A full integration would have to take place to get around these scope provisions. The AWA/AAA pilot groups are still on different planets over 5 years later.

Bringing US Airways on doesn't solve the overcapacity issues facing RAH in both Denver and Milwaukee.

Parker is on record saying a merger only makes sense with one of the other big 5 network carriers.

It would have to be a hostile takeover as US Airways is not bankrupt and Parker isn't going to sell to them. US Airways still has 2.1 billion in the bank. Not a whole lot compared to the rest of the industry, but enough to keep from going into BK. Check the stock price lately, it's no longer that cheap for RAH to buy.

The whole Republic thing is a wet dream of the East pilots who cling to the hope that the West is sold to RAH and the "real" airline pilots are integrated with American or United. Pure fantasy. But not any more delusional than the entire USAPA experiment.

That is what would scare me. Why do you think the stock price has made such a run. Wallstreet must think something is in play. JMO
 

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