Reply only if you have free time!

[asolo]

Thought the subject is fitting b/c my question is: When do you think hiring will really start to crank up. I know it's speculation, but all the CFI's I work with have their own ideas. My guess is January. Am I close? Thanks

 

[bobbysamd]

Hiring restart

I do have a free moment, yes. I'd say that spring is a better bet, assuming no more business scandals that could impede the economy and/or the stock market.

Don't forget that people start thinking in the spring about traveling during the summer. Except for the holidays, winter is oftentimes a slow time for traveling. If the economy picks up, that will increase business travel, which will also help.

 

[Typhoon1244]

Hiring?

By "hiring," do you mean new pilots or guys on furlough being called back? That process could take quite a while...like mayber Winter 2003.

 

[banned username 2]

Don't forget you have thousands of guys on furlough who need to be retrained... this in itself will wtake a long time (and there hardly have been any recalls to date, some carriers are talking about additional furloughs)... and then there will be have to be a further need beyond that staffing to require hiring...

Lets not forget, as you are sitting "stuck" in your CFI job, so are many others "stuck" in there positions... and everyone is gaining experience (some faster than others) when the market opens back up you will find higher minimums because those kind of people will be out there looking...

If you are expecting hiring to resume to 1997-1999 levels, don't fool yourself, we probably won't see that kind of hiring in the forseable future, if ever again.. that time was more the exception than the rule...

Not a pretty picture, but the truth isn't always pleasant... If I had to make a timeline guess, I would say (pending no further economic or political disruptions) we MIGHT see some recalling in 2003 spreading into 2004 with maybe some minor hiring late 2004 and becoming a little more upbeat in 2005... but nowhere near the hiring levels of 1997-1999...

When I graduated ERAU in 1990 our guest speaker at graduation was some very highly regarded Aviation person (can't remember who) and their advice to the class of 1990 was "Stay alive till 95" which meant do what you need until 1995 and MAYBE hiring would be better... Was a nice speech after spending 4 years and $80,000 on college and flight training.. gee, only 5 years to wait!

Well my thought is this downturn in hiring started in 2001 and is in some ways worse than the early 90's.. so 4-5 years isn't that unrealistic to expect hiring to be very minor....

The one bright spot is SOME of the Regionals and SOME of the Fractionals who seem to still be hiring at a modest pace... outside of these the industry is stagnant... Also I feel you will see MANY more pilots make a career at the Regionals and Fractionals than you have ever seen in past history...

Sorry and good luck!

This is merely my $0.02 worth from my observations of the industry...

 

[bobbysamd]

Employment

One other thing that probably doesn't have to be said but I'll say it anyway so it's on the record. Do whatever you need to do to stay employed as a pilot. Some people sniff their noses at flight instructors. At least these wobegone instructors are turning a buck as pilots. That matters.

Good luck with your plans.

 

[enigma]

Dittos to the FALCON CAPTAIN. Great post.
8n

 

[LR25]

Out on a trip about a month or so ago, a flight instructor on the way out of the airplane peaked his head in and we started to talk. He asked what he should do and if his 800 hrs would get him hired on somewhere in the 121 world.

I said he should keep flight instructing, get all your ratings and not worry one minute about trying to find that 121 job.

If anything try to find a right seat position in a DC-3 or some jet at a charter company.

Well, here I am about to have to do the same and follow my own advice.

I would think that staying where your at is probobly the best thing to do right now, when the hiring resumes you will be in a good position to get that first job, you just have to survive until then.