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Regulation or Deregulation? Interesting article.

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walden

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 8, 2004
Posts
121
The battle over airline regulation Two stories have come out this past week on the costs and benefits of deregulation in air travel. In the Sunday New York Times, Micheline Maynard examines the debate in the United States over airline deregulation. Some groups don't like it:

[R]epresentatives of labor unions and some consumer groups, long forthe stability of the time, before 1978, when the government decidedfares and determined where airlines would fly. Labor unions inparticular are looking for an alternative to the current situation,having been hit this decade by five airline bankruptcies, theelimination of more than 120,000 jobs and cuts of as much as 50 percentin pay and benefits.

These groups say it is time to consider reregulating airlines, or atleast to start a debate about how to stabilize an industry that may beso vital to the nation's fabric that government intervention iswarranted....

"Are we willing to accept the results of a free marketplace, or dowe think the role of commercial aviation is such a part of our economythat we have to have government influence?" asked Patricia A. Friend,president of the Association of Flight Attendants, a labor union thatrepresents about 75,000 airline employees. "It's a conversation I'dlike to have before everyone wakes up and asks, 'What the hellhappened?' "

So what are the results of that free marketplace? Read on:


Since federal restrictions on routes and fares were removed, consumershave been saving $20 billion a year on air fares, when adjusted forinflation, according to Brookings. Fares have dropped by more than 30percent, on average, and as much as 70 percent when tickets are boughtin advance, the group concluded.

At the same time, airlines have vastly expanded their networks,bringing air travel - a relatively infrequent experience [severaldecades ago] - to people all over the country. For example, American,the biggest airline, flew to just 50 cities in 1975; it now serves morethan three times that number. Southwest, which started in 1971 with asingle route in Texas, now flies to 61 cities, not counting those itserves through a code-sharing arrangement with ATA.

Read the whole thing -- the major airlines are facing a seriousfinancial squeeze, to be sure -- but the 2001 post-9/11 governmentbailout worsened rather than aided their situation.

Meanwhile, Matt Welch has a great piece in Reasonthat looks at the travel revolution that low-cost airlines have broughtto Europe. The effect has transcended the airline industry:

In less than a decade, the Southwest Airlines revolution has sweptthrough sclerotic Europe like a capitalist hurricane, leaving afundamentally altered continent in its wake. Low-cost airlines havegrown from zero to 60 since 1994 by taking Southwest’s no-frills,short-haul business model and grafting on infinitely variable pricing,aggressive savings from the contemporaneous Internet revolution, andthe ripe, Wild West opportunities of a rapidly deregulating andexpanding market. Europeans, fed up with costly train tickets, annoyingmotorway tolls, and Concorde-style prices from national “flag carriers”such as Air France and Lufthansa, have defected to the short-hoppers indroves—200 million, nearly 45 percent of the entire E.U. population,took a low-cost flight in 2003 alone.

These airline upstarts are run by swaggering young CEOs whom theEuropean press treat like rock stars, living up (or down) to thebilling by issuing manly predictions of price war “bloodbaths” andpulling off daring publicity stunts, such as Irish carrier RyanAir’spost–September 11 sale of 1 million tickets for “free” (before taxes).Their companies have been rewarded with dot-com-bubble-like stockvaluations—and the volatility that comes with them—while theirlong-haul counterparts dodder toward cutbacks, bankruptcy, and worse.(Switzerland became the first European country to lose its nationalairline when Swiss Air and Sabena folded in 2001.) In less than ageneration, one of the Western world’s most notoriously regulated anddistorted markets has become a poster child for unified Europe’s 21stcentury élan.

In the process, Europeans have changed not only their travel choicesbut the way they behave. “We aren’t just teaching our customers aboutour brand,” says Stanislav Saling, the twentysomething Slovak publicrelations director of SkyEurope, a new Bratislava-based low-costcarrier. “We’re selling tickets to people who have never flown before,and showing them how to use the Internet.” Brits, who have led thelow-cost charge with RyanAir and easyJet, are now the world’s biggestowners of foreign second homes as a percentage of population. Acrossthe 25-country, 458-million-resident European Union, marriage betweendifferent nationalities is at an all-time high. Residents ofpost-communist countries, who not long ago were more than happy to takeany handouts from their far richer Western neighbors, are nowleveraging the low-cost revolution to compete with them instead. OldEurope’s postwar business culture, in which CEOs of highly regulated“National Champions” were virtually interchangeable with theirschoolboy pals in government, has been battered by entrepreneurialmavericks of hard-to-define provenance, such as easyJet’s 37-year-oldfounder Stelios Haji-Ioannou, who was born in Greece, owns houses infour countries, and (as The New York Times put it in April) “feelsGreek when he is in London, English when he is in Greece, and Europeanwhen he is in America.”

One common theme in bothof these pieces is that deregulation is not without its costs --there's more uncertainty about the financial viability of someairlines, greater stress on airline employees as these firms arepressured to improve their productivity, and as the case of RyanAirdemonstrates, a few airlines that appear to delight in irritiatingtheir customers.

The other common theme is that these costs are dwarfed by themassive benefits that consumers have accrued in the form of lower airfares and a greater variety of travel options.

Be sure to read the Welch piece on how deregulation could go further.
 
IMHO, regulation is the only way to save the airlines. Without regulation, the legacy carriers will be forever gone, and wind up being replaced with the WalMarts of the industry.
 
Regulation!

I don't just want to be an airline pilot, I want to be an airline pilot in the 1960's! "Coffee, tea or me?" The life as depicted in "Catch Me if You Can"! Well maybe being a regional FO will be just like that, right?
 
I just wish the government would pick one or the other.

Staying in the middle as they are now is killing everyone. Supply is too great, either reregulate and cut supply, or let the market take care of it. I don't care which one they take, i just wish they would get out of the middle which is destroying everyone.
 
Indypilot said:
I just wish the government would pick one or the other.

Staying in the middle as they are now is killing everyone. Supply is too great, either reregulate and cut supply, or let the market take care of it. I don't care which one they take, i just wish they would get out of the middle which is destroying everyone.

BINGO! Give that man a cigar.
 
But that sounds like a good thing for consumers---and in this country, we don't protect producers, we protect consumers.

There's no way that the industry is going to be regulated, especially if the main motivation is to protect airline employees.

Sol Rosenberg said:
IMHO, regulation is the only way to save the airlines. Without regulation, the legacy carriers will be forever gone, and wind up being replaced with the WalMarts of the industry.
 
Indypilot said:
I just wish the government would pick one or the other.

Staying in the middle as they are now is killing everyone. Supply is too great, either reregulate and cut supply, or let the market take care of it. I don't care which one they take, i just wish they would get out of the middle which is destroying everyone.

Exactly. One of the reasons this misery has dragged on for so long is precisely because of government interference. The weak are propped up (through ATSB loans, never ending bankruptcy, etc) and the strong get pulled down. Let Darwinism do its magic...the strong survive and the weak go away.
 
Bankruptcy is a tool to let management continue to rape the employees. Do they ever get a pay cut, NO. They continue to get bloated bonuses to keep them in place! Either re-regulate or let the market truly work. Indypilot, you got it right on!
 
Reregulation will drastically cut the number of available pilot jobs.

Who's willing to exit the profession so that someone else can get back up to $200k+ per year?

Anyone?
 
IMHO, regulation is the only way to save the airlines. Without regulation, the legacy carriers will be forever gone, and wind up being replaced with the WalMarts of the industry.

In the reregulated world, why should the "legacy" carriers be the ones that survive? Just because they're the biggest? How about efficiency? Who will decide which airlines get what routes? What will be the criteria? I'd prefer the goverment get out of the way, and let the chips fall. This would most likely put me out of work, but so be it.
 
quote from semperfido:

"free market is very harsh."



Too bad we don't really have a truly "free" free-market.

If we did, airlines wouldn't be allowed to hide in chapter 11 for years on end, going to a judge to have contracts changed that they don't like. A judge wouldn't be able to tell creditors that they can't repo aircraft that aren't being paid for.

Can any of the "free-market forces at work" hornblowers explain how in a suppossed free market economy a judge can tell creditors they can't repo assets not being paid for?? Or why it is ok for a company to stay in the perpetual life support allowed by current chap 11 laws, when they surely would have, and should have, perished years ago??
 
100LL... Again! said:
Reregulation will drastically cut the number of available pilot jobs.

Who's willing to exit the profession so that someone else can get back up to $200k+ per year?

Anyone?

You are correct reregulation will cut the number of pilot jobs available.

Lets take a broad look at what is happening now. The airlines are esscentially playing a zero-sum game right now. Well call it demand. The pie is only so big and prices have come down so much over the past few years that demand is pretty inelastic (not much diff between charging 40 or 60.)

That means that pretty much everyone is losing money because the cost pie is larger than the demand pie.

There are three solutions to this zero sum game.

Option 1: reregulate, The government steps in and cuts everyones flying equally. This results in the bottom 15% of every carrier being furloughed. But everyone else gets to keep their job at current pay.

Option 2: Completly deregulate, Let the market talk. This means 5 or 6 of the weakest carriers fail and everyone at those places loses their jobs, but everyone else is spared at their current pay.

Option 3: What is currently happening. Artificially keeping supply to high. creating a dog fight amongs airlines for their share of the pie. The way to win this scenario is to lower the cost pie to meet the demand pie. In plain english, EVERY pilot takes huge paycuts, loses their pensions, gets screwed over and over again. This continues until the cost pie is smaller than the demand pie, which last time i checked was still a long way away from happening.

So which one sounds the best. If you are on the bottom of a list, option 2 sounds pretty good. If you are at a failing company like me, option 1 sounds pretty good (I'm getting furloughed anyways so I don't care). If you are at the bottom of a failing company, it doesn't really matter. All I can say is that option 3 sucks monkey for every pilot and for everyone that has fought to get this profession to where it is today. There really is no other way out of this dilema.

So the question is are you willing to continue to take paycuts and "lower the bar" so that everyone gets to keep their job? Or should the government either crap or get off the pot. Should they continue to subsidize cheap tickets with our hard fought pay? Why should they get to play god and determine that we are making too much? Shouldn't the market make that determination?

I personally would like to see complete deregulation as eventually both the consumer and the producer win (the only one that loses is weak outdated inflexable ineffecient companies), but that's just me.
 
HalinTexas said:
In the reregulated world, why should the "legacy" carriers be the ones that survive? Just because they're the biggest? How about efficiency? Who will decide which airlines get what routes? What will be the criteria? I'd prefer the goverment get out of the way, and let the chips fall. This would most likely put me out of work, but so be it.

I'm not saying ONLY the legacy carriers should survive. The bottom line is that it takes a certain amount of money to operate an aircraft on a given route. Now, some of the airlines are offering fares that similar to the cost of a greyhound ticket (on certain routes, of course). How much more will the LCC's cheapen the industry by selling tickets for next to nothing. If you prefer the govt just get out of the way and "let the chips fall" as you say, the LCC's wil drive the legacy carriers out of business and the regionals will take their place, and even IF one of the legacy carriers does end up surviving, they will only do international routes. How would you like to be a passenger stuck on a regional jet from Atlanta to LAX? Regulation will force the airlines to compete for the passenger's service by upping the quality of service which will be a benefit to all. There will be more jobs (gate agents, ticket agents, catering, etc.)

100 ll again said:
Reregulation will drastically cut the number of available pilot jobs. Who's willing to exit the profession so that someone else can get back up to $200k+ per year?.

Well, maybe that's what we need to straighten this whole thing out. It's senseless to fly 20 RJ flights per day from ATL to an outstation, which was once served by a Boeing 767 only 4 times per day. Nobody likes riding in sardine cans for more than an hour anyway. Coming into ATL every morning, you're almost gurarnteed to hold. And once you get on the ground, you taxi for 20 minutes to the gate. Throw a little weather in the mix and things really get pushed back. So how is this good for the passengers or effiency (as a previous poster stated)? To answer your question, no, I'm not willing to exit the profession. When I started flying many years ago, you had to at least have the minimum 1500 hours, but competitive mins were alot higher. You had to have paid your dues somplace else (ie, flying a 400 series cessna at night or something). Now, the regionals seem to be the place these kids are getting hired at right out of school. Hell, you can get on at some regionals with something like 700 hours. I personally believe that if the LCC's and regionals replace the legacy carriers and become the industry's new "major" airlines", the pay and QOL will never be the way it used to be.
Just my 2 cents worth, Sol
 
"Regulation will force the airlines to compete for the passenger's service by upping the quality of service which will be a benefit to all."


Regulation will force competition? last time I checked, it worked the other way

Benefit all? except the consumer who has to pay $1000 for a ticket.

More Jobs? this higher service level costs money which will make tickets more expensive. All airlines will need to shrink because at $1000 per ticket, the size of the demand pie just got a lot smaller. Benefit all except the bottom 40% of everyone's list including rampers, gate agents etc.
 
Indypilot said:
"Regulation will force the airlines to compete for the passenger's service by upping the quality of service which will be a benefit to all."
Regulation will force competition? last time I checked, it worked the other way.

Yes. For instance, if there are 2 airlines which charge the same price from point A to point B, what incentive would you, as a passenger, have for choosing X airline over Y airline? The airlines realize that, and they perk up their service to make flying with them more attractive over flying with the competition. I can remember as a kid flying on Eastern, TWA and Braniff that every time I got off the plane, the flight attendants would hand me a givaway like a little travel kit (toothbrush, soap, etc), a pair of wings, or somthing along those lines.
 
So cheap giveaways will be enough? I think it will increase the cost-cutting efforts by management.

Since fares are fixed, the push to raise stock values could result in hard-core cost cutting, which could lower service quality.

You will see the cheap crap like you mention, but I could see where that may not matter to pax.
 
Sol Rosenberg said:
Yes. For instance, if there are 2 airlines which charge the same price from point A to point B, what incentive would you, as a passenger, have for choosing X airline over Y airline? The airlines realize that, and they perk up their service to make flying with them more attractive over flying with the competition. I can remember as a kid flying on Eastern, TWA and Braniff that every time I got off the plane, the flight attendants would hand me a givaway like a little travel kit (toothbrush, soap, etc), a pair of wings, or somthing along those lines.

It is the same thing disguised as something else.

If airline A and airline B are in a free market, the can change price or offering to get a customer to fly them. But if there is too much supply, something has to budge.

If airline A and airline B are regulated and are forced to charge the same price, the competive forces will send all the money into making the product better. This costs money, so airline A add food, so does airline B, then airline A adds IFE, so does B, etc, etc, etc. Eventually they realize that they cost of all this stuff is making them lose money (revenue is fixed because of regulation, but cost are still increasing because of this competition). So how do you cut cost to pay for all this stuff, go after labor. As long as their is too much supply, something has to budge. Because of the A**wipe lorenzo, labor will always be cut. The other way to pay for all this stuff, would be to ask the government to raise fares, say they do that, demand will go down and now you are fighting for less people, revenue goes down, labor gets cut.

If there is too much supply, it doesn't matter if you are regulated or unregulated. The same thing will happen.

Now those smart management types realize this, they know the only way to win the game is to not play. If they are both making a profit on the route under regulation, They don't touch it because they know if they do, they will eventually lose the game. This causes less competition, bloated and inefficient companies. There is no reason to play the better service game, because if you do, you will lose. It's the classic prisoners dilemma problem. But because of regulation you know what the other guy is charging, it would be like the cops telling each prisoner truthfully what the other had done. There is no incentive to cheat on the cartel.

What is different about the free market is you cannot explicitly collude. You cannot talk about pricing with each other. This causes you to be forced to play the game. Once you start in the game, the only way to win is tit for tat. So if you lower prices, so will the other guy, if you increase service level, so will the other guy. It's the only solution that works if you wish to remain in business. Of course all of that loss of revenue or higher costs have to come from somewhere. You guessed it, labor (either in the form of pay cuts or furloughs).

as long as their is an over supply, labor gets hosed. unless there is regulation and managment realizes that if they start playing the game they will lose. Take the profit and run. Don't COMPETE. OR let the free market reign and kill the inefficient and solve the oversupply problem. Either way labor loses in one form or another.

The only way to solve the problem while keeping labor intact would be to shift the demand curve to match the oversupply. Good luck figuring out how to get more people to fly at the same price, without spending more. If you figure that one out, let me know, we will make billions together.
 
Re-regulating is necessary because of the big picture. Sure you can run $49 tickets at a loss and kill off the majors. Now what? The LCC's have to purchase new ac that can fill in the long haul and international flying that is now vacant. Meanwhile your LCC costs have now gone up to the levels of the major you just killed. this is due to seniority and the new AC and all the associated costs of new airports, especially international, ect. So next thing you know you have Joes airlines start up and start killing off the former LCC by undercutting their fares by offering $49 tickets. Everybody loses, no airline employee will be able to sustain a career of more than 10 years, no benefits, retirement, you get the point. People need to understand how much it actually costs to move an airplane, we all understand this. If you can fly across the country for less than a grey hound bus there is a problem.

So for those that keep thinking "my airline is the greatest ever because we make money" just wait untill the growth and seniority take their toll.
 
But people don't want doodads and giveaways. They want cheap tickets. So replacing cheap tickets with doodads does not benefit (most) customers at all.



Sol Rosenberg said:
Yes. For instance, if there are 2 airlines which charge the same price from point A to point B, what incentive would you, as a passenger, have for choosing X airline over Y airline? The airlines realize that, and they perk up their service to make flying with them more attractive over flying with the competition. I can remember as a kid flying on Eastern, TWA and Braniff that every time I got off the plane, the flight attendants would hand me a givaway like a little travel kit (toothbrush, soap, etc), a pair of wings, or somthing along those lines.
 
From a consumer point of view if you can fly across country for less than the price of a Greyhound ticket there is no problem at all. None. Zippo. In fact, it's wonderful.

Airlines do not exist for the purpose of providing anyone with stable employment opportunities.

You may argue that ultimately the situation will become so bad that no one will be willing to work for the airlines, and this will cause the airline industry big problems. If and when we ever get to that situation, we'll talk. Until then...
From a consumer standpoint there's no argument at all for reregulation. The situation for the average passenger has never been better than it is today. You've never been able to fly for so little.

FR8mastr said:
Re-regulating is necessary because of the big picture. Sure you can run $49 tickets at a loss and kill off the majors. Now what? The LCC's have to purchase new ac that can fill in the long haul and international flying that is now vacant. Meanwhile your LCC costs have now gone up to the levels of the major you just killed. this is due to seniority and the new AC and all the associated costs of new airports, especially international, ect. So next thing you know you have Joes airlines start up and start killing off the former LCC by undercutting their fares by offering $49 tickets. Everybody loses, no airline employee will be able to sustain a career of more than 10 years, no benefits, retirement, you get the point. People need to understand how much it actually costs to move an airplane, we all understand this. If you can fly across the country for less than a grey hound bus there is a problem.

So for those that keep thinking "my airline is the greatest ever because we make money" just wait untill the growth and seniority take their toll.
 
It's not just providing stable employment for airline employees, that is just our problem, (that is the hundreds of thousands of people who have the misfortune of working in the airline industry now). The point I was trying to make is that this whole situation is not sustainable. The airlines cant continue to lose millions of dollars so that joe consumer can be happy with his give away tickets. Yes I know two airlines managed to make some money, refer to my previous post. I dont believe that will continue, so if the airlines dont manage to find away to charge a reasonable fare ($49 isnt it) they will continue in this cycle of huge losses.
 
This conversation is drifting from the reality stated earlier. Deregulation was implemented for the consumer good, not the airline. Business and business management is about adapting your company to the market and the rules that you are faced with.

Yes, it is not easy and events out of the blue like the 9/11 attacks can be a totally consuming event that changes everything overnight.

Figuring all this out is why management gets the bucks they do.

Reregulation is not going to happen because it was not a consumer friendly environment. A CMH to ORD ticket was $450 for an hour flight in the 70's. I went to San Diego for less from Miami in 2004, a 4-5 hour flight.

The sad fact is that all the service is the same, well maybe not, the cheaper LCC's give better service in a more pleasant manner.

Regulation or deregulation are not the point. They did not kill the industry, it was suicide.
 
FR8mastr said:
Re-regulating is necessary because of the big picture. People need to understand how much it actually costs to move an airplane, we all understand this. If you can fly across the country for less than a grey hound bus there is a problem.

Good post, this is my point exactly.

vc10 said:
But people don't want doodads and giveaways. They want cheap tickets. So replacing cheap tickets with doodads does not benefit (most) customers at all.

Ok, maybe you're right regarding doodads, I'm just remembering the nostalga of the good old days in airline travel, when people for the most part dressed up to fly and thought it was not just a way to get from point a to point b, but was an experience within itself. I guess it will never be that way again.
The fact that the only thing that passengers want are cheap tickets is a major problem. Passengers will continue to expect cheap tickets, as long as the LCC's keep offering them. Where do you draw the line? How long can any airline last when they offer a $49 dollar seat on an aircraft, when there is no way a profit can be made with a fare that low. I find it funny to read posts by airline pilots who think the whole $49 greyhound ticket price is the best thing in the world, and then they're the first ones to bitchh about their salary being so low. How the heck do you figure your airline can pay you a decent salary if they don't charge enough for a ticket to turn a profit? This industry is so cheapened now, that you see more computerized ticket counter stations than actual human ticket agents. I wouldn't be suprised if they start to charge passengers money to check regular luggage. What's next?...completely eliminating all food and beverage service onboard and replacing the duties of a flight attendant with a television monitor to give passenger instructions in case of an emergency? Maybe if we do all that, they can start selling tickets for $25! No wait, then offer a sweet PFT program for newhire fo's. That way, the airline will only have to pay the captain.
 
Sol Rosenberg said:
I'm just remembering the nostalga of the good old days in airline travel, when people for the most part dressed up to fly and thought it was not just a way to get from point a to point b, but was an experience within itself. I guess it will never be that way again.

I hate to tell you but it's not just the airlines. Take a look at a photo from a baseball game, or any sporting event, taken in the 1950's or 60's and you will see fans dressed in coats and ties (hats too). Everyday citizens walking down the street were often dressed up. For better or worse those days are gone forever. The biggest difference however is that the price to see a sporting event has gone up while the price of air travel has gone down. Of course I don't make $6 million a year either.

V2
 
Publishers said:
This conversation is drifting from the reality stated earlier. Deregulation was implemented for the consumer good, not the airline. Business and business management is about adapting your company to the market and the rules that you are faced with.
You're absolutely right, and when a business doesn't adapt as you stated, they fail; except the government won't let them, which is the root of the problem.

Figuring all this out is why management gets the bucks they do.
Ummm, last I checked airline management (with a few exceptions) WASN'T figuring out how to make the airline run profitably. Sustained losses measured in the BILLIONS over the last 4 decades is not my idea of "figuring this out". If you mean that they have "figured out how to get the U.S. government to keep giving free handouts at the expense of the taxpayer", then I'd agree with you.

Reregulation is not going to happen because it was not a consumer friendly environment.
And using taxpayer dollars to continually prop-up MULTIPLE failing airlines IS "consumer-friendly"? You know better, and so do the bureaucrats in D.C., but their constituents keep lining their pockets and the insanity continues. I wonder if a study has been done since 9/11 that shows how much money the average taxpayer has been sending to the airlines in forms of government bailouts.

The sad fact is that all the service is the same, well maybe not, the cheaper LCC's give better service in a more pleasant manner.
That's the first thing I've wholeheartedly agreed with you on that I can recall.

Regulation or deregulation are not the point. They did not kill the industry, it was suicide.
Yes, they ARE the point of this thread; while I agree with you that regulation will not work (Pandora's box can't be closed), you MUST agree that this cycle can't possibly continue without some kind of adjustment, and it appears that neither US nor UAL are going T.U. anytime soon which means no "internal adjustment", so where is it going to come from?

Personally, I believe strongly that the U.S. Government should enact legislation that requires an airline to price their product AT LEAST at their break-even point. While not directly controlling prices, it would at least minimize the government cheese that's been flowing into this industry to maintain the status quo.
 
Ahh, let's just do price fixing.

I believe on another thread I just read that SWA, Air Tran, and JetBlue produced profits for the quarter and year. Seems like it can be done and their managment did figure it out.

While I agree that BK just keeps these guys running, the fact is that this is a result of cash flows at big companies, not governement handouts.

We do have to recognize that 9/11 impacted this industry and the government is in the business of stepping in when something extraordinary occurs, after all it was our government that was attacked, not the airlines.

I do expect one of the carriers to die.
 
Publishers said:
While I agree that BK just keeps these guys running, the fact is that this is a result of cash flows at big companies, not governement handouts.
Last I checked, US didn't have large cash flows and the only reason they are still kicking is because the ATSB allowed them yet another extension on their Federally-guaranteed loan (which is backed by taxes paid by John Q. Public), even though US has YET to meet any of the income restrictions as prescribed in the loan document.

I have nothing against US or UAL and wish that this could all come to a positive conclusion without anyone enduring further loss but you're right, one of the big guys has to go down or all the airlines have to dramatically cut back capacity (ain't happening). I don't see that happening as long as the feds are happy to help those who wouldn't survive without it.

We do have to recognize that 9/11 impacted this industry and the government is in the business of stepping in when something extraordinary occurs, after all it was our government that was attacked, not the airlines.
Absolutely, the ATSB was formed and gave out BILLIONS as a direct result. That SHOULD have been the end of it; default and it's no longer their fault or problem. Unfortunately it wasn't and it will keep on being a problem until a large number of representatives in Congress or the Senate are monetarily affected, either constituently or through lobbying.
 

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