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canadflyau
Well-known member
- Joined
- May 2, 2002
- Posts
- 437
I hope we see the resurgence of the Majors.. hopefully they will grow and need more feed, rather than getting more SJ's put on mainline routes... hopefully there will be more people wanting to get out and travel than the little jets on the routes can hold.
If history repeats itself, yes post war should be good for the airlines!
If history repeats itself, yes post war should be good for the airlines!
greyhound
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jan 14, 2003
- Posts
- 200
As Allen Greenspan said, all we need to turn this economy around is the crisis in the middle east to be resolved. People are not afraid because of terrorism as much as they are afraid about the economic consequences of going to war.
Corporations (most) are STILL making some money, they just aren't making what they would like, so they feel they are loosing money.BS.
I don't know about anybodys else's company, but here at my transportation company, I'm packing the bus up everyday, and this company still cries.
I'm almost sure that most of you guys/gals are pulling about a 65-70% load factor (maybe even higher)on most of your trips. If after cut-backs and lay-offs, airlines aren't staying away from the red ink, then they are very poorly managed.
Unfortunately, pilots are some of the first to get screwed/blamed
("Oh you make too much"," oh, we can't pay you during training")
So once fears from war get past us, companies will be willing to invest,(Buy more A/C, start new routes).
The public will also feel more secure about their job stability,and be willing to go on that trip they have been holding out on.
A new president would be nice too.
Post war airline industry will be more RJ jobs at about 45-75K per year, less 767/757 jobs at 150k per year. So all the regional pilots need to think about how they want to live in the longer term in case you aren't lucky enough to get one of those positions that are fewer everyday.
It will get better,
Corporations (most) are STILL making some money, they just aren't making what they would like, so they feel they are loosing money.BS.
I don't know about anybodys else's company, but here at my transportation company, I'm packing the bus up everyday, and this company still cries.
I'm almost sure that most of you guys/gals are pulling about a 65-70% load factor (maybe even higher)on most of your trips. If after cut-backs and lay-offs, airlines aren't staying away from the red ink, then they are very poorly managed.
Unfortunately, pilots are some of the first to get screwed/blamed
("Oh you make too much"," oh, we can't pay you during training")
So once fears from war get past us, companies will be willing to invest,(Buy more A/C, start new routes).
The public will also feel more secure about their job stability,and be willing to go on that trip they have been holding out on.
A new president would be nice too.
Post war airline industry will be more RJ jobs at about 45-75K per year, less 767/757 jobs at 150k per year. So all the regional pilots need to think about how they want to live in the longer term in case you aren't lucky enough to get one of those positions that are fewer everyday.
It will get better,
jarhead
master of my domain
- Joined
- Mar 27, 2002
- Posts
- 1,162
From where I see it
Here's my perspective as a layed off pilot from Cessna Aircraft. The company just announced record earnings!! Kind of frustrating until you look ahead a year and see that the customer base has dried up - so, unfortunately for me, it was kind-of a pre-emptive measure to maintain their cash reserve. Which, incidentally, is what the American public is doing also (hording cash). Hence the worsening economy and bad stock market... IMHO... I think what was posted pertaining to Alan Greenspan's comments were pretty much spot on.
Here's my perspective as a layed off pilot from Cessna Aircraft. The company just announced record earnings!! Kind of frustrating until you look ahead a year and see that the customer base has dried up - so, unfortunately for me, it was kind-of a pre-emptive measure to maintain their cash reserve. Which, incidentally, is what the American public is doing also (hording cash). Hence the worsening economy and bad stock market... IMHO... I think what was posted pertaining to Alan Greenspan's comments were pretty much spot on.
I.P. Freley
I like people food
- Joined
- Dec 26, 2001
- Posts
- 2,038
"hording cash"??
Most people l know (and no I don't mean pilots) aren't hoarding cash... They are simply not buying new cars, houses, and jet-skis like they might have five or ten years ago.
But hoarding cash? Hardly. They aren't buying as much on CREDIT as they used to. Don't think that the vast majority of Americans have this cash nest-egg that they are sitting on, waiting for the Iraqi conflict to resolve itself, that they will then spend on Cessnas and hot tubs. Everyone, and I mean just about EVERYONE is feeling the pinch.
Most people l know (and no I don't mean pilots) aren't hoarding cash... They are simply not buying new cars, houses, and jet-skis like they might have five or ten years ago.
But hoarding cash? Hardly. They aren't buying as much on CREDIT as they used to. Don't think that the vast majority of Americans have this cash nest-egg that they are sitting on, waiting for the Iraqi conflict to resolve itself, that they will then spend on Cessnas and hot tubs. Everyone, and I mean just about EVERYONE is feeling the pinch.
embraerjetpilot
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 4, 2003
- Posts
- 301
greyhound
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jan 14, 2003
- Posts
- 200
Jarhead
Jarhead, to answer your question, they have layed- off workers to restore the earnings that they would like to make,or protect what little is being made. The biggest clue in that they are still making "SOME" money, is the fact that they are still in operation. Like in D.Fitz's case, companies are making efforts to maintain their profits.(cut-backs in labor,production etc...
Some people may know someone who isn't holding back on spending and that is actually good,we need more people like that, but I'll bet it is because they don't have a clue as to what is going on in the world.
As for companies going out of business? you ask. I said it before, Poor management.
Stock market? I personally do not invest in the market (YET), so I can't answer that one, but it will also do a lot better when things turn around.
Finally Jarhead, keep it professional on this board, please don't try to offend,it doesn't work and it only reflects bad on you. Is that how you are going to talk to yor fellow crewmembers in the future?
Jarhead, to answer your question, they have layed- off workers to restore the earnings that they would like to make,or protect what little is being made. The biggest clue in that they are still making "SOME" money, is the fact that they are still in operation. Like in D.Fitz's case, companies are making efforts to maintain their profits.(cut-backs in labor,production etc...
Some people may know someone who isn't holding back on spending and that is actually good,we need more people like that, but I'll bet it is because they don't have a clue as to what is going on in the world.
As for companies going out of business? you ask. I said it before, Poor management.
Stock market? I personally do not invest in the market (YET), so I can't answer that one, but it will also do a lot better when things turn around.
Finally Jarhead, keep it professional on this board, please don't try to offend,it doesn't work and it only reflects bad on you. Is that how you are going to talk to yor fellow crewmembers in the future?
jarhead
master of my domain
- Joined
- Mar 27, 2002
- Posts
- 1,162
Greyhound:
First. let me apologize for the offensive comment made by me as to the color of the sky on your planet. It was a cheap shot, and I regret doing it. I will be more proper in the future.
Second, I will never have a crew member to talk to...I am 62 years old, and my flying days (private) are over. I do have a son who is a captain on a 121 carrier, thus my interest in this site.
Back to the topic.
Load factors are not the only indicator as to the financial well being of an airline. You could have an aircraft 100% full of paying pax, and no non-revs, but if the price of the ticket was so low that it would not cover the cost of fuel, leases, gate fees, labor, etc. it can still be losing money. The reason a carrier still flies a route at a loss, is that it can lose even more by parking the aircraft. Do not let a load factor indication be the only basis for determining the health of a carrier.
As to the stock market. The reason it is in such bad shape, is that corporate earnings have really taken it on the chin. The p/e ratios are still way too high, and until earnings increase in corporate America, it will not come back to the boom-boom times of the late 90's. It is the responsibility of corporate management to maximize corpotate profits.....that is their job.....to make money for stockholders. If a person feels that a company is making too much money, why not buy some of that stock instead of complaining about why wages are so low? sound fair?
First. let me apologize for the offensive comment made by me as to the color of the sky on your planet. It was a cheap shot, and I regret doing it. I will be more proper in the future.
Second, I will never have a crew member to talk to...I am 62 years old, and my flying days (private) are over. I do have a son who is a captain on a 121 carrier, thus my interest in this site.
Back to the topic.
Load factors are not the only indicator as to the financial well being of an airline. You could have an aircraft 100% full of paying pax, and no non-revs, but if the price of the ticket was so low that it would not cover the cost of fuel, leases, gate fees, labor, etc. it can still be losing money. The reason a carrier still flies a route at a loss, is that it can lose even more by parking the aircraft. Do not let a load factor indication be the only basis for determining the health of a carrier.
As to the stock market. The reason it is in such bad shape, is that corporate earnings have really taken it on the chin. The p/e ratios are still way too high, and until earnings increase in corporate America, it will not come back to the boom-boom times of the late 90's. It is the responsibility of corporate management to maximize corpotate profits.....that is their job.....to make money for stockholders. If a person feels that a company is making too much money, why not buy some of that stock instead of complaining about why wages are so low? sound fair?
greyhound
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jan 14, 2003
- Posts
- 200
Jarhead
No worries about the comment.
Yes, an aircraft can be at full capacity, and just break even.
But I really don't think it applies to ALL the flights.
I also agree that it is sometimes better to operate and loose, than not operating at all.(to MINIMIZE loses) ECON 101,
but how long can companies sustain their loses before closing their doors? I still think they are making "SOME" profit.SOME carriers of course! or else they would be out of business or heavily in debt(life support).
Finally, you will definitely think I am crazy for this, but yes I am considering buying stock on UAL. Just throw about $100 dollars just to see what will happen in case it turns around in the long term.It's better than the slots in Vegas. Imagine the return if the stock price climbs to a DAL status or FEX! If it survives of course,if not what's $100 bucks!
No worries about the comment.
Yes, an aircraft can be at full capacity, and just break even.
But I really don't think it applies to ALL the flights.
I also agree that it is sometimes better to operate and loose, than not operating at all.(to MINIMIZE loses) ECON 101,
but how long can companies sustain their loses before closing their doors? I still think they are making "SOME" profit.SOME carriers of course! or else they would be out of business or heavily in debt(life support).
Finally, you will definitely think I am crazy for this, but yes I am considering buying stock on UAL. Just throw about $100 dollars just to see what will happen in case it turns around in the long term.It's better than the slots in Vegas. Imagine the return if the stock price climbs to a DAL status or FEX! If it survives of course,if not what's $100 bucks!
jarhead
master of my domain
- Joined
- Mar 27, 2002
- Posts
- 1,162
airline stock
Greyhound,
A few years back, I threw 20 grand into Comair stock. Held it for about four months, and then sold it for about 23 grand, just prior to the anouncment that Delta was going to purchase Comair. I would never do that again in the current climate, but as you say, if you have some mad money you want to throw at UAL, just be sure you are comfortable with the risk of losing it. A friend of mine bought $500 woth of Sam Goody stock some years ago, again, as a long shot at making a nice profit. Unfortunatly, the stock went south, and he sold ot at $100. But, he knew the risk going in.
While bad management is always possible, I think it is a mistake to paint ALL companies that are losing money as being run by "bad" managers. The market place often will prevent a company from making any profits due to circumstances that are beyond the control of even the MOST competent managers. The business climate is cyclical for many enterprizes, and sometimes the only thing the corporate captain can do, is batten down the hatches to keep the ship from sinking, and wait for the storm to end.
Greyhound,
A few years back, I threw 20 grand into Comair stock. Held it for about four months, and then sold it for about 23 grand, just prior to the anouncment that Delta was going to purchase Comair. I would never do that again in the current climate, but as you say, if you have some mad money you want to throw at UAL, just be sure you are comfortable with the risk of losing it. A friend of mine bought $500 woth of Sam Goody stock some years ago, again, as a long shot at making a nice profit. Unfortunatly, the stock went south, and he sold ot at $100. But, he knew the risk going in.
While bad management is always possible, I think it is a mistake to paint ALL companies that are losing money as being run by "bad" managers. The market place often will prevent a company from making any profits due to circumstances that are beyond the control of even the MOST competent managers. The business climate is cyclical for many enterprizes, and sometimes the only thing the corporate captain can do, is batten down the hatches to keep the ship from sinking, and wait for the storm to end.
Flywrite
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jun 14, 2002
- Posts
- 770
Greyhound,
I'm no business major, but as I understand it common stock is often cancelled in a bankruptcy. I'd be really careful about UAL. You may make a few bucks in the short term, but new stock will probably be issued IF the company emerges from CH11, leaving you with nothing.
If you really want to gamble that $100, buy 60-70 shares of AMR, hope that they avoid CH11, and hope even more that the stock returns to pre-9/11 levels one of these days.
(Dont take this as sound advice, I may be completely wrong about the CH11 stock cancellation thing).
I'm no business major, but as I understand it common stock is often cancelled in a bankruptcy. I'd be really careful about UAL. You may make a few bucks in the short term, but new stock will probably be issued IF the company emerges from CH11, leaving you with nothing.
If you really want to gamble that $100, buy 60-70 shares of AMR, hope that they avoid CH11, and hope even more that the stock returns to pre-9/11 levels one of these days.
(Dont take this as sound advice, I may be completely wrong about the CH11 stock cancellation thing).
You're dreaming if you think AMR is going to avoid chapter 11 . . . . probably June.
In order to avoid it, UAL would have to close doors completely in April, which would get rid of a bunch of the gross overcapacity in the national system. That's a hell of a business plan, but it's about all that any of the majors have at this point.
In order to avoid it, UAL would have to close doors completely in April, which would get rid of a bunch of the gross overcapacity in the national system. That's a hell of a business plan, but it's about all that any of the majors have at this point.
freightrash
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jan 31, 2002
- Posts
- 137
Don't forget about the endless list of other countries we may have to deal with:
N Korea
Iran
Syria
etc, etc
Things may be bad for quite some time. The public needs to deal with the sad fact that terrosism can and will happen again. Live your lives and don't fall prey to these a-holes.
____________________________________________
Well, I belive it will be quiet for while after we bust Iraq.
N Korea
Iran
Syria
etc, etc
Things may be bad for quite some time. The public needs to deal with the sad fact that terrosism can and will happen again. Live your lives and don't fall prey to these a-holes.
____________________________________________
Well, I belive it will be quiet for while after we bust Iraq.
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