Recession???

[lowecur]

Wall St has third triple digit down day in a row. The greed of the oil speculators, unbridled growth in China/India, huge trade deficit, little control by the Houses' of Congress on the discretionary portion of the Budget, and the War in Iraq has fueled some analcysts to believe recession is right around the corner. This from a poster on another board:

"I was wondering if you still think the sky is the limit on where the price of oil will go in the next few quarters? Do you still think it will go to 60 and beyond?

Have you followed what is happening on Wall Street?

1. GM issues a profit warning and the stock tanks. Reason; SUV and truck sales down
2. Ford also issues a profit warning. Reason; truck sales are down.
3. IEA now says that Europe GDP will be much lower than forecast. Reason; Oil prices are having a much greater impact than expected.
4. Retail sales are down in March. Reason; people are spending more for gas, which leaves less for discretionary spending.
5. March employment number well below forecast.
6. Several firms are cutting U.S. GDP growth for the rest of the year.
The list goes on and on.

The damage has been done. We will see 30 before we see 60. The fat lady will be singing the end of speculative bubble next week."

This is possible folks, as the oil bubble may be about to burst. Market forces are heavy handed in correcting imbalances. It would have just been so much easier if we had a viable energy policy in this country, but big business would have none of that!

This is a double edged sword for the Airline business. Cheap oil is better, but a slowdown of revenue is just as costly. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Swerpipe]

So........

Hey Lowercur,

So, what are you saying? The Emb 190 is not going to sell?

 

[LXJ31]

More Bad News...

http://www.theonion.com/news/index.php?issue=4115&n=1

"Cost Of Living Now Outweighs Benefits"

My favorite quote:

"The fact is, the supply of Americans greatly outstrips demand," said Evan Alvi of the Portland-based Maynard Institute. "Americans seem to believe that minting more lives will increase the value of their own holdings. All they are doing, though, is inflating the supply and reducing the dividends paid by long-term familial bonds."
Despite life's depreciating value, Alvi did not recommend that shareholders divest themselves of their holdings.

"Limited dumping could result in a short-term increase in available resources for those who remain in the market," Alvi said. "However, it's a risky move that could affect perception of value, leading to mass divesture."

Alvi added, "And let's not fail to mention that some religious experts say there are penalties for early withdrawal."

 

[dixieflyer]

As a life long Republican, I always thought the Dems were the king of government spending. Since the federal government exceeded its budget, the Rep. controled congress just pass a "supplimental budget" to increase the spending ceiling by a few more million. In other words more debt. To make matters worse Red China is buying up our treasury notes in rapid fashion.

I remember the hawks saying the war in Iraq will "pay for its self" when we get our hands on that oil. Well it better. With a 500 billion $ hand out (not a loan) given to the Iraqi gov., expanded medicare (health care cost never go down), Homeland Security, TSA and other programs that translate to bigger govenment,..things may get worse before they get better.

What happened to the GOP of yesterday that called for smaller government and less spending?

 

[lowecur]

To make matters worse Red China is buying up our treasury notes in rapid fashion.

China/India will have the last laugh on the US. The US is the economic engine that churns the world, but by the end of the decade China/India will surplant the US as the straw that stirs the drink. If either one ever develops a currency with the trust of the dollar, the plug will be pulled on the US economic engine without ever firing a shot.

 

[LearLove]

I have a small feeling we are headed for a full blown DEPRESSION in the comming years.

Americans and American companies are too leveraged, too in dept. The only good thing the "housing market" is about to burst big time. Its overflow from the rockin' 90's. Everyone was happy spending spending spending getting married and buying houses. After 01 thoes married people, mostly around my age and alittle older started f'cking without rubbers and had babies.

So you have 30 somethings with school loans, house payments, car payments (remember eveyone leased in the 90's then bought in 01 to save America aka GW), credit cards out the wahzoo and NOW little sh1ts running around that cost BIG BUCKS.

And its not like we bought sensible either, everyone of my college friends that got married and had kids lives in some new developement with a giant house that costs mega $$$ not only in morgage but in heating and other bills.

We owe too much and are spending too much and the cost of everything is going up. On top of that the "good" job even for thoes with degrees are not there to support it. It all leads to a giant CRASH.

o well, guess they will always need turboprop pilots for 20,000/year. Good thing the girl I went out with in college and planed to marry after graduation dumped me my first year as a professional pilot (she wasn't stupid) and since then when I get "luckey" I wrap it twice (don't need my pityful wages getting garnished for child support) and have my bills paid. Its pathetic but true.

 

[Swerpipe]

Outrageous!

o well, guess they will always need turboprop pilots for 20,000/year. Good thing the girl I went out with in college and planed to marry after graduation dumped me my first year as a professional pilot (she wasn't stupid) and since then when I get "luckey" I wrap it twice (don't need my pityful wages getting garnished for child support) and have my bills paid. Its pathetic but true.

Dear Learlove,
That was perhaps the funniest post I've read. I fell of the chair. The girl I "planned" to marry was nice enough to give me a choice "me or the Metro!". Yeah, I had to go for the ugly sewerpipe, sorry babe.

P.S. BTW if wrapping it twice fails, remember the Hail Marry pass...

 

[91100 100 set]

Oh geez, the places this thread could go. It starts with the price of oil and goes to "alternative" forms of birth control...

Priceless, Lear. Give me a call in a few days. I heard something on campus today that is very interesting and potentially disturbing and I'm curious what the word on your side of the playpen is...

 

[satpak77]

China/India will have the last laugh on the US. The US is the economic engine that churns the world, but by the end of the decade China/India will surplant the US as the straw that stirs the drink. If either one ever develops a currency with the trust of the dollar, the plug will be pulled on the US economic engine without ever firing a shot.

I agree with that 100%. Sad, but true. Sucks to admit it, he11, I have an American flag on my wall and I support our troops, yada yada. However, the above is very likely to occur.

Also, our stock market is turning direction and will be "bear" market soon.

China and not OPEC (the evil arab conspirators who "set" oil price and are secretly plotting against us on the grassy knoll) is one major reason why oil prices are so high.

see "FedEX Stock price" reply I posted re: market

http://forums.flightinfo.com/showthread.php?t=52487

 

[Black Water Dog]

It would have just been so much easier if we had a viable energy policy in this country, but big business would have none of that!

There is an energy policy in this country, it is called "Supply and Demand". The most efficient ever devised. Get government (and therefore politics) involved to alleviate short term pain, and you will really see things screwed up, fast, hard, and permanent.

As to the demand from emerging economies (Eastern Europe and China primarily), they are not as robust as we are, the high energy prices will affect them far sooner than us. Western Europe and their heavily managed stagnant economies will falter first. Demand will slow, and prices too.

 

[C77MD80]

Hey blackie,
Nice looking waterdawg! Looks a lot like mine when he was a pup. Mine is 3 years now, just got his HR in UKC-HRC. What a hoot! Passed two tests this weekend....
Oh sorry, is this the avitation board?
Take care

 

[House_X]

As a life long Republican, I always thought the Dems were the king of government spending. Since the federal government exceeded its budget, the Rep. controled congress just pass a "supplimental budget" to increase the spending ceiling by a few more million. In other words more debt. To make matters worse Red China is buying up our treasury notes in rapid fashion.

I remember the hawks saying the war in Iraq will "pay for its self" when we get our hands on that oil. Well it better. With a 500 billion $ hand out (not a loan) given to the Iraqi gov., expanded medicare (health care cost never go down), Homeland Security, TSA and other programs that translate to bigger govenment,..things may get worse before they get better.

What happened to the GOP of yesterday that called for smaller government and less spending?

"Red China"?

Is this Dr Strangelove? Is this 1950? When is the last time you pick-up the Wall Street Journal? Ever been to Shanghai? "Red China" indeed...

 

[WMUSIGPI]

Based on what our media has been advertising, China is more democratic than Russia these days.... Not sure if I really have much faith in our media based on thier reporting of the Iraq situation compared to what military servicemen that I know that were there in person said..... I just hope the oil supply keeps flowing abundantly for the rest of my lifetime cause without oil the whole world would grind to a stop. Don't kid yourself "alternative" energy sources we have available today might have been able to meet energy demands of 100 years ago but oil is the lifeblood of the planet today. Without oil you wouldn't be reading this. The power to operate your computer likely is from an oil based product. The computer itself is largely plastic which is made out of oil. The metals needed for the computer were mined by oil using machinery. Then refined by oil needing processes. You get the point hopefully.

Oh yea without oil how do you plan on making your airplanes move?


Unless we manage a "Star Trek" leap in energy technology soon we may soon find ourselves living in a pre-industrial revolution world with about 10 times as many people to support..... It won't be pretty folks.

 

[climbhappy]

Lowecur:

what you should be asking is: where is the trading range of the market. look at the spikes and the bottom over the last six months. is it near the last bottom ?

A recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GNP growth. a depression is 4 quarters of neg GNP growth.

So, how do 3 down days in the market signal a panic attack? you need to hit that easy button and go to Staples!

 

[HalinTexas]

Don't put too much stock (pun intended) in India and China taking over the world. They have more to worry about than we do.

India produces little. The USA probably buys most of it. They only answer the phone when you call the help desks. They are one of, if not the, most populous country on earth and they're still popping them out. Pakistan and the Kashmir problem have not gone away. They are still in a low-lying area prone to floods, cyclones and tsunamis.

China sells most of what they make to us. They are densely populated in their urban areas. The population is quietly forcing their country to a market based economy as well as foreign leaders are pressing the Chinese government to de-index the yuan from the dollar. The Chinese are also investing in the Euro. Democracy is growing there still and I don't think it will go away. Not without sacrificing their growing economy. The Chinese are buying all the crude. They have discovered the automobile. Once they get serious about domestic exploration, some pricing pressures may ease.

Bottom line: What happens economically in the states will dictate how well these other countries do. As we stop buying what they produce, their economies suffer greatly. The USA is the richest most consumer oriented nation the world has ever seen. Poverty and hunger, while not invisible, is largely unknown in this country. If the individual has the where-with-all and not too many kids, they can succeed here.

I would bo more concerned with the European Union. It was created to compete directly with the USA. They are gaining in political clout as well. I believe there is latent power hidden within the ever growing EU community.

 

[AA717driver]

Halin--You are right about China. They are developing a consumer class that will equal that of the U.S. Those people will cast off the chains of communism (sorry, Karl M.) and prosper.

But where will China get its cheap goods? Alabama, maybe?TC

P.S.--When I was in Hangzhou last month, the restaurant at the Hyatt was no different that what you would see in a typical upscale U.S. restaurant on a Saturday night. Kind of interesting--and frightening.

 

[FN FAL]

Unless we manage a "Star Trek" leap in energy technology soon we may soon find ourselves living in a pre-industrial revolution world with about 10 times as many people to support.....It won't be pretty folks.

Synthetic oil, nuclear power, electric cars, fuel cells, solar energy, hydro-electric power plants, windmills.

It's not going to be like "Gangs of New York" or "Mad Max", anytime soon...unless there's a magnetic pole reversal, atomic war or a huge volcanic eruption in Yellowstone Park.

And if does swing that way, 10 times as many people means two things...a veritable pleathora of reasonably handy protein and a never ending source of entertainment.

 

[lurker]

The greed of the oil speculators, unbridled growth in China/India, huge trade deficit, little control by the Houses' of Congress on the discretionary portion of the Budget, and the War in Iraq has fueled some analcysts to believe recession is right around the corner. This from a poster on another board:

You've got to look out for those analcysts. They can be painful.

I recommend warm soapy water.

 

[LAZYB]

Reminds me of the old "saw"...

it's a recession if your neighbor loses their job and a depression if you lose your's.

 

[sleepy]

China/India will have the last laugh on the US. The US is the economic engine that churns the world, but by the end of the decade China/India will surplant the US as the straw that stirs the drink. If either one ever develops a currency with the trust of the dollar, the plug will be pulled on the US economic engine without ever firing a shot.

Yeah, all of the experts said the same thing about Japan in the 80's. We sold them a bunch of overpriced skyscrapers, and they went bust.