Reasons hiring may increase @ FedEx,UPS?

[Murdawg5]

Hello everyone,
Just got fininshed picking this up from the yahoo message board for CGO (Atlas Air)
This is an extract from
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/economicnews/view/37518/1/.html

--The cancellation of passenger flights out of Hong Kong due to the SARS outbreak has resulted in disruption in shipping schedule of air cargo goods in the territory.
"Since over 50 percent of the export cargoes are transported via the belly of passenger flights out of Hong Kong, the cancellation of over 30 percent of all passenger flights is affecting the normal operation of the industry," said Victor Mok, chairman of the Hong Kong Association of Freight Forwarding and Logistics Ltd (HAFFA).--


Does the Management @ FedEx believe the SARS thing could cause an increse in volume?

IMHO, FedEx's management team, specifically on the financial side of the equation, has rerun their financial projections for the near future... The numbers, I believe, HAD to be recaluclated for the following reasons: 1)this possible shift in freight to the cargo airlines; 2) the end of hostilities in Iraq causing an uptick in the world economy; 3) the increase in cargo required for an extended military presense in Iraq (possibly 3 years or more), and; 4) if it can be believed, the rumor of an increased volume of Postal freight......

Some other considerations from the operational side could be: 1)maybe the retirement projections have increased due to guys retiring early; 2) maybe some of the age 60 guys will not be coming back to the S/O position... All this is just a guess...

While I'm new to the cargo industry and FedEx, I don't believe that something as big as a pilot bid (which occurs infequently at FedEx) would be redone unless a SIGNIFICANT shift in the financial numbers has occured... Pilot hiring at FedEx is driven by the financial numbers FIRST, and the new bid did not occur until those finacial projections were agreed apon... Therefore, IMHO, the previous insustry indicators suggest that we should see more guys on the property soon... I'm going to call my buds today to tell them to update their profiles if they haven't done so allready...

I welcome any feedback the board could provide...
See ya',
Murdawg5

 

[Hornetkid]

Awesome

Dawg,

Great post, thanks for the insights.

Its ben very quiet since the news of the cancelled/changed bid.

Kid

 

[AlbieF15]

I scoff

FedEx bros and wannabes,

I hear all the same rumors everyone has mentioned, but as of yet have seen NO formal announcements or words from management. Classes from the latest bid are underway, and the FO I flew in with today is on his way to DC10 FO school in June. Just like the "fall bid right around the corner" when I was interviewing in Aug 2001 (which ultimately became the May/June bid of 2002)--things have a of sliding to right on the timeline here. Then last year we were going to have another fall bid, before Thanksgiving...before Christmas....around Feb.....oops no March....and finally is closed 1 April. I'm not holding my breath for anything to happen quickly.

Trust me...as a 727 SO and an MD11 wannabe...I hope all of you are right. However...in the interest of giving the devil his due...I haven't hear sh!t from anyone official, and I am wondering if all these rumors aren't just wishful thinking. Another version of the more popular rumor is the source of the FCIF might have been simply a "knock it off" call by Jack Lewis when the training folks got bombarded with 17000 (okay...maybe an slight exaggeration) of requests for training swaps.

As always...I may be wrong...and this time I hope I am

 

[T-38Dude]

AlbieF15,

Being a fellow 727 S/O, are you saying I shouldn't have gone out and bought that new Dodge Viper? Whoops! Oh well, back to the mini van for me

T-38 Dude

 

[JethroF15]

Albie... exactly right... no formal announcements or words from management on this or why the "no training swap requests after April" FCIF. I doubt that the reason would be that training was swamped with requests though. There have been much bigger bids than this one and training swaps were processed IAW the contract with no (that I know or heard of) problems. IMO there is something up with the "no swaps" FCIF. We just have to wait it out to find out exactly what it is. For everyone swimming in the pool I hope it's good news. For all of us already here I also hope its good news!

 

[AlbieF15]

T-38 dude,

My advice is just keep the Viper for a month or two and enjoy it--you've earned the right to have a bit of fun. Spin the wheels at every red light, and race from Aberdeen down to Columbus enoute to your other job and see what kind of record times you can make. Jam the gears HARD everywhere you go, and get your money's worth out those 10 (it is 10 isn't it?) cylinders.

If they don't rebid like you want, just park it for 24 hours anywhere between my old crashpad off of Kirby and Airways Blvd...preferably within a block or two of Knight Arnold road. I'll be you a fresh box of KrispyKreme donuts (just off Winchester at Ridgeway) that your new car will be out of your hands within an hour, and USAA can send you a check for the payoff.

Surprisingly enough--nobody seems to want my 1989 4 door faded silver and rust Volvo. I think I could leave it unlocked with the keys in the ignition just about anywhere in town....

 

[houseopain]

Albie

Dont be so negative. All the hiring rumors means more $ in your pocket. Has the panel made you bitter? Stay positive, at least for the bizz! When I talked to you this time last year the glass was definitely half full! Give the swimmers some hope.

 

[AlbieF15]

House,

RUMORS don't improve the quality of my life--hiring does! My point was only that the rumors always get me "hot and bothered" like a mean-spirited "tease" in high school, only to leave you with "no satisfaction" if you know what I mean...

FDX is a great place to work. I am holding some trips that really fit my lifestyle well, and I work with generally great folks. My negativity isn't about the job...its just I have gotten so worked up emotionally over bids "just around the corner" before that now I tend to be more pragmatic.

I've helped some of the folks in the pool get hired, and I've got a few buddies in there, too. I also have a lot of buddies who WANT to apply, which can't happen until the app window reopens. So...I want more bids, hiring, etc as much as the next guy. Please don't take my "believe it when I see it" attitude as mad at the company or discouraging the poolies. I hope we hire ASAP, and if I hear anything from inside I'll be among the first to share the news.

 

[Spur]

The FCIF states: "There are some new issues being analysed that might directly impact our current bid awards. Therefore..."

That is the extent of the "official word" so far. Whatever the issue is, I'm sure it is pretty significant if it could have such a great impact on this bid.

Latest version I heard (overheard from writer of FCIF in question) was that the issue is an increase in Postal freight. However, apparently we are not the only airline attempting to acquire the freight... I thought we had the exclusive contract for their priority mail??? Am I wrong?

 

[Vikingpilot]

As an FDX S/O LCA, I've been keeping my ear close to the ground on this one. (Mainly to find out when the next slug of new hires are coming in to train). My sources indicate something is going on with the postal contract, but again that means nothing because to me it's still just rumor. However, despite rumors, all the postive indicators are in place...war over, gas $ coming down, stock price continuing to rise...all good signs. I believe we will see something positive (with respect to hiring) soon. But like Albie mentioned, I don't bet on rumors anymore.

 

[busdrver]

I'll throw out a rumor, what the heck, everybody else does at Fedex. Heard it just tonight, too. Unfortunately, it ain't a good one. (Or it may be good depending on your perspective) This rumor says that reason the company wants to curtail the training swaps is that they are concerned about the level of experience (Too low) that they are getting into the MD-11. So they are planning to offer some sort of financial incentive to get more senior guys to bid into the Mad Dog. So against my better judgement, that's my rumor offering.

I don't know what it is, but I find rumor mongering is worse at Fedex then it ever was in the Air Force, even a wartime AF. So I take all rumors with a grain of salt at this company. Nothing's definite around here until the gear is in the well.

 

[F18-FDX]

Personally, I think this one is a complete crock of ----. The company has known the relative seniority (or juniority) of the Mad Dog guys for quite some time and there was no reason to believe things would change with this last bid. If they were seriously thinking about something like this it would have been put out a month ago, BEFORE the bid closed. It makes no sense to completely goon up the training letter and introduce all the problems that come with it for something that could have easily been avoided in the first place. Like I said, there was no reason for them to think this bid would be significantly different than those in the past and if they were considering something like this they would have either 1) Annouced an "incentive" before the bid closed, or 2) Delayed the bid until they made up their minds.

This is some dude in the MD-11 wishfully thinking "I'm gonna get paid more", then told his bud, next thing you know it's floating around like beer in a frat house.

Whether the MD-11 gets paid more in the future has yet to be seen, but IMHO it makes zero sense to turn things upside down to do it now, especially for such a relatively small bid. I don't believe it for a second.

 

[LivinDaDream]

This type of a deal would require an LOA or LOU with ALPA. If you aren't hearing it from union reps, it ain't true.........YET.

 

[Murdawg5]

Hello Everyone....
Looks like F-15 was right.... The bid will go as normal with no "good news" about hiring in the short term...

The message from the Cheif Pilot is as follows:

"I put out a week ago that we may be modifying or canceling the bid due to
some added potential opportunities. The Company is still pursuing those
revenues...however, it has been determined it will be awhile until we know
of any added requirements. Therefore, it's business as published with the
training plan. Submit swaps and other requests in the normal methods. Each
will be considered individually and accomodated if possible. We
understand how these things can impinge upon your life; if it can't be
approved, there are logical, rational reasons why. Thanks for
understanding (I hope).

Several people noticed B727 second officer positions on the bid and are
asking about hiring. These positions simply allow us to move quicker if and
when we need to hire. There is currently no number or timetable on new
hires. Obviously we will have to sooner or later....if a betting man, I'd
bet slightly sooner than later. When we do hire and/or open the website for
applications, I will send notice out so the pilot group is informed. There
are about 65 pool applicants and I don't see huge hiring numbers coming, so
it'll be a free-for-all for a few spots. No decision yet on furloughees
from the big guys....when a definitive determination is made, I'll tell you
that too. Expect an answer within a month.

You now know as much about hiring as I do....disappointing, eh?"


Sorry it's not too good news for the poolies.... IMHO, the revenue side of FedEx does see something worth capitalizing on, and until the revenue department is CONVINCED that these revenues will require additional pilots on the property, they will not commit to hiring any additional pilots until they absolutely HAVE to.... Unfortunately for guys not on the property, FedEx makes it just too easy to sell back vacation, pick up trips, etc... The financial guys know that its chaper to pay overtime than to get new pilots.... Therefore, the continueing (sp?) battle between finance and operations at FedEx will continue...

See ya',
Murdawg5

 

[busdrver]

Personally, I think this one is a complete crock of ----.

Unfortunately, it has about as much credibility as any other rumor at this company, although in this case, I suspect you are right about the origins of this one.

I'm beginning to think that Jack Lewis's FCIF's that pertain to future plans are nothing but rumors, as well. Perhaps not exactly rumors, but he seems to be passing along future plans that are too early in the planning phase, if that makes any sense.

This type of a deal would require an LOA or LOU with ALPA

Which, of course, wouldn't be a problem if it meant more money for ALPA.