Upgrade Expectations
Want2fly asked, "
How long are upgrades running?"
There is more to this question than simply stating that the pilots who are currently in upgrade class have been at PSA around 2 years.
There are two factors which influence upgrades at ANY company.
#1. Growth
#2. Attrition
Growth: Growth at PSA, or any of the wholly-owneds for that matter, will come in only one form -- regional jets.
To their credit the PSA negotiating committee agreed to participate in Jets4jobs. (Had they not done so, their airline would likely have been liquidated as the Dornier leases expired).
As per the terms of the J4J protocols the furloughed US Airways pilots will be offered the opportunity to occupy 50% of the seats (F/O and Capt) on each new regional-jet. They will do so at the bottom of the seniority list -- essentially they will be lifetime reserves as their seniority will never improve until all existing PSA pilots have upgraded. This will leave the other 50% (roughly 2.5 captains per aircraft) to be upgraded from the existing PSA seniority list.
So in terms of growth, upgrade opportunities will be dependant upon a number of factors including,
- Regional jet announcement/deliveries
- Training-float (will create D328 Captain positions)
- Final terms of the J4J agreement
- Number of furloughed mainline pilots who accept employment at PSA
- Company decision to retain or park existing turboprops.
Attrition: This one is more elusive and far more difficult to predict. Most of the junior captains at PSA were hired in 1999 and 2000 where they enjoyed an extremely rapid upgrade to captain as a result of attrition. The major airlines were all hiring and PSA was losing a lot of pilots to them.
Today there is virtually no movement. Southwest, FedEx, and Jetblue are hiring along with a few fractionals but this, as you can imagine, has brought attrition at PSA to a near-standstill. Upgrades that are occuring today are as a result of crew shortages but once the airline is properly staffed, there is no need for further upgrades until the jets begin to arrive.
To muddy the waters a little bit more Mesa has asked to restart jets4jobs negotiations with its pilot group. Although it is unlikely that they will agree (since the flowthrough only applies to wholly-owned pilots) they will probably vote it down --- but if Mesa should agree to J4J, I think we can all agree that it would be bad news for PSA.
My Opinion: So my opinion to you, Want2fly, is this. When you begin interviewing at the regionals pick one that will make you happy if you end up there for the long term. The time for the quick 2-year tour at the regionals before you start at United is now over. Your goal should be to find an airline where you can be happy for the long term, or even possibly retire from if the industry never fully recovers. More and more mainline jobs are being eliminated as regional carriers begin to fly jets with 50, 70, even 90 seats. The "commuter" of yesterday is gone -- regionals today can be good career destinations (and for many of us, may have to be!).
Hopefully PSA will be a part of a succesful US Airways' future, but I think that the 2 year upgrades will most likely be 5, 6 or more years for pilots hired today. Just my opinion.
-Furloughed Again