PIT/PHL/CLT, who's leveraged?

[WileE]

If the worst case scenario happens and USAir liquidates (hope not, but it's looking very Eastern from the outside), which airline seems to be in the best position to take over their big bases? You know someone is going to take most of those gates I was just wondering if anyone has any guesses as to what's going to happen at those airports (and I know that guesses is about all they'll be at this point).

It would be interesting to see if one or more of the big boys like AA or UA expands into them or if some more of the LCC's make advances like SWA, JB, Frontier or someone new.

Any speculation?

 

[satpak77]

You might reverse engineer that question and say who is FINANCIALLY CAPABLE of taking over those places you mentioned.

In my opinion, UAL is out, Delta is mostly out except for Charlotte ops

I would lean towards JBLU then SWA. Mostly because SWA does not do anything that has not been cross-analyzed and back-tested 15 times first, so any "taking over" real quick probably won't be done by SWA. They however will be serving Philly in May and likely will expand outward at Philly if UAIR shuts down.

UAIR's international ops out of Philly? That is a good question. Don't see AMR really jumping at that one, again, UAL is out, negative on SWA, JBLU. That leaves DAL. How they do it is anyone's guess.

JBLU would be by guess as far as "taking over" domestic stuff. Observe that UAIR has some international routes and also quite a few Caribbean routes, I see those going to Delta first then AA.

AA has the carib pretty well covered, and Delta historically has been "light" on European routes. Also AA serves Europe pretty well as it is from ORD and DFW. Further, observe that AA is still in weak financial shape but is recovering.

I would rule out UAL, they unfortunately have their hands full with their current situation, in my opinion. UAL's strength has been Asia anyway.

Another intersesting question is what will happen with MESA, which if you count actual airplanes owned, is a "major" in and of itself.

From a mere "whats gonna happen standpoint", the above is what I think will happen.

But, lets hope UAIR stays alive and recovers.

 

[Cows Go Moo]

I really have no insider Mesa info, but I do work there. There's been some talk about the what ifs of a U liquidation, but no one here is really worried about our own jobs (I'm a little concerned for the U and U wholly owned people I know). Worst case, U liquidates and we have to find something to do with all our east coast RJ's and the CLT/PHL/DCA crew bases. Not such a big deal, I think. If U goes the route of TWA and gets a substantially sized buyer, we'd probably just continue doing what we're doing (example: Trans States in STL when AA bought TWA). If that doesn't happen, we might accelerate the expansion of our United partnership and free up ACA from their United bondage sooner than expected. I don't know, but for the time being we're enjoying a relatively (and rather foreign to us) quiet space in the industry. Now what was that about the calm before the storm?

 

[formerdal]

satpak77-

Just for reference prior to 9-11 Delta actaually operated more flights to Europe than any other carrier.

 

[General Lee]

satpak77,

We still go to more European cities from JFK than any other airline, and our ATL and CVG service isn't shabby. If we can get our costs under control eventually, I see us going more towards Asia---but what do I know? I bet they will eventually try to find an RJ that can make it over there too.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[wms]

DAL also bought terminal A in BOS and is spending billions. It will be a big Int'l hub unless Leo's departure changes that. If things stay the same I don't see PHL for DAL.

Since I commute from CLT, I would like to see more DAL/DCIWO there, especially with that awesome regional terminal. But that's a pipe dream.

The perfect world is USAir pulls through and this discussion is a waste of time. Let's hope!

 

[satpak77]

I stand corrected

Thanks guys, I made a mistake and was wrong. I apologize for putting out that prior info.

I appreciate the correction, taking a look at DAL's route map clearly shows lots of Europe connections.

I need to wake up this is 2004 not 1994 or even 1984

FLY SAFE

 

[SWA/FO]

SatPak77,

SWA jumped right into to MDW with both feet .... right after Midway went under. Could happen again?

 

[MooseTrax]

ATA!

Don't forget about ATA!

 

[enigma]

Some of you have forgotten to account for the loss of capacity when/if U folds up. Certainly, DL, AA,UA, etc are hurting now, and certainly can't move into an already saturated market; but the entire market will change if U is out of the picture. Why can't DL,etc. expand into a market devoid of competition?

I would guess that SWA is in the best position to bulk up in the east if U folds, B6 is still too small to be able to handle the increase. Give them another year and all bets are off.

just my worthless two cents
enigma

 

[enigma]

SatPak77,

SWA jumped right into to MDW with both feet .... right after Midway went under. Could happen again?

Isn't the story somewhat the same for SWA and STL?

enigma

 

[lowecur]

Helloooo Enigma

I would guess that SWA is in the best position to bulk up in the east if U folds, B6 is still too small to be able to handle the increase. Give them another year and all bets are off.

I too hope U pulls through, but they will have to divest themselves of some assets to continue.

If the unfortunate happens and they go Chapter Seven, then there will never be an 800lb gorilla at any of those Hubs - maybe a 300lb WN. In the name of competition, I see the airport authority in PHL giving 30% of the gates to WN, and the rest will be doled out as competition grows. Independent Airlines will be a natural to pick up some portion of the Regional Terminal F, and some gates at E. American/American Eagle will be a large player there, as well as Continental/CA Express. If the unthinkable occurs and WN doesn't order the E-Class, then you may see them do a Regional with MESA as a feeder (did I just say that?). Branson will be there, and so will the usual cast of characters to fight for the large O&D traffic.

 

[canyonblue]

Mostly because SWA does not do anything that has not been cross-analyzed and back-tested 15 times first, so any "taking over" real quick probably won't be done by SWA.

You obviously never heard of our buildup into MDW. Oops didn't see my brother SWA FO's post