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Pilots to become the elevator man?

  • Thread starter Thread starter BenW
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BenW

Member
Joined
Mar 31, 2003
Posts
5
Before I'm dismissed as the crazy one on the board who nobody aknowledges, let me explain. With the advance of new technologies designed to decrease pilot workload and to ease navigation and instrument flying, such as synthetic vision and "roads-in-the-sky" displays, does anyone forsee a decline in the necessary expertise required to be a professional pilot? Like the elevator opperators phased out by new, automatic equipment, might airline pilots eventually find themselves in a job with increasingly lower standards of skills? Will the airline captain in 40 years still procure the same prestige and income as his contemporary counterpart? Thoughts...?

Ben
 
Doubtfull

I don't think cockpit automation will ever reach the level where we only need to have a computer tech up there who just punches in the destination. Flight safety will always dictate, and passengers will always demand, a flight crew who is fully trained and competant as aviators, not computer operators. Look at the case of United 232 in Sioux City. The scenario was deemed impossible by the aircraft designers, and wasn't covered in the checklist, but the skill and resourcefullness of the crew saved those who survived.

Keep in mind that other aircraft besides airliners will likely remain more simple and won't share the highest levels of cockpit automation available to airlines.

What? Captains have prestige? Doesn't seem so when the TSA has me standing there undressed, in my socks with my belt held open!
 
I speculate that the next generation of commercial aviation will go with one person cockpits. They'll be qualified pilots as today but the computer will do a lot of the driving and thinking. If aircraft separation can be made to a science, plus handling situations that arise (e.g., weather changing suddenly), then a one person crew is a possibility. Future generations will wonder what all the fuss was about. First it was the navigator, then the plumber, and now the F/O....companies will love all the money they'll be saving (the real reason for automation!).
Again, this is my layman's speculation and opinion. For the sake of commercial pilots I hope I'm wrong.
Between companies wanting to lower the bar and TSA may not have to worry about a glut of pilots 40 years from now either.
 
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EagleRJ

they are already working on programs to allow planes to deal with the loss of control surfaces. They already have the capability to control aircraft with ground based, secure digital data link. They already have aircraft that can fly autonomously...cruise missiles can fly great distances, navigate, negotiate nap of the earth terrain, hit a target with great accuracy.

Bringing up the airliner that crashed on landing at SUX because of hydraulic failure is interesting, because they were never, ever able to replicate the actions of those great pilots in a sim. Everybody crashed when thrown into that same situation. So that landing that was made at SUX could possibly never be repeated again by humans. Intelligent Flight Control Systems would make such a flight scenario not only repeatable, but also more survivable. Think about it, the stealth fighter couldn't be flown manually either!!!

Here is a scroll and paste from a NASA website and the LINK to that website...(there is so much stuff on automated flight/fly by wire/Digital Flight Control Systems DFCS/Intelligent Flight Control System (IFCS), that you could spend weeks looking through it) Anyone that thinks this stuff ISN'T going to affect commercial flying in the future...is thinking inside the pre 9/11 box. Bullet resistant cockpit doors, ARMED AIRLINE PILOTS, increased threat of terrorism and the fact that the World Trade Center Towers are missing from the New York skyline, are all pointing to the fact that airliners in the future are going to have to be flyable and landable...when the pilots are incapacitated. Anyone that argues that pilot incapacitation is not feasable or possible, would have to be arguing against reality...because recent news headlines bear out that that is a real fear in government's mind and the flying public's mind. Heck, they are arguing now, that ONE bullet resistant door protecting the flight deck...isn't enough!

Here is the link to the expanded version of the text I pasted below...it also has some nice photos...

http://www.sti.nasa.gov/tto/spinoff2002/dryden.html

One of Dryden's earliest aeronautics success stories celebrates its 30th anniversary this year. Most modern aircraft utilize a digital flight control system (DFCS). Dryden engineers pioneered this system in 1972, with the F-8 Digital Fly-By-Wire aircraft research project. The DFCS concept incorporated an electronic flight-control system coupled with a digital computer to replace conventional flight controls. Dryden's work paved the way for the DFCS now used in the Space Shuttle and today's military and civilian aircraft, making them safer, more maneuverable, and more efficient.

Digital systems make aircraft more maneuverable because computers command more frequent adjustments than human pilots. Aircraft designers are no longer confined to designing features that make the aircraft more stable, thus harder to maneuver. For commercial airliners, computerized flight controls ensure a smoother ride than a human pilot alone could provide.

As always, Dryden's research produces cutting-edge technology in aviation. How about an airplane that can heal itself and land safely following a catastrophe? A special NASA airplane that can alter its own computerized flight software to meet in-flight emergencies is getting ready for research flights next year. Dryden will operate the highly modified NF-15B aircraft in a series of flights in the Intelligent Flight Control System (IFCS) research project. IFCS is designed to incorporate self-learning neural network concepts into flight control software to enable a pilot to maintain control and safely land an aircraft that has suffered a major systems failure or combat damage. Flight evaluation of first- and second-generation self-learning neural network control software is expected to occur in 2003. Preliminary flight tests of an IFCS neural network that was pre-trained to the NF-15B's aerodynamic database were flown in spring 1999.

http://www.sti.nasa.gov/tto/spinoff2002/dryden.html
 
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Interesting analogy about cruise missiles. So far in this war, we've fired around 700 cruise missiles, and four of them (that we know of) have gotten lost and gone off course. That is the current state of the art.
So far this morning, we've probably had around 700 commercial airline flights take off. What if four of those had already crashed? There's no question that a man-rated automation system would have greater refinement and redundancy, but the day the first robo-plane takes off is the day many people never fly again- myself included.

I think we will start to see incorporation of technology that will make the pilot's job easier and more informed, but there will always need to be a human in the loop. One thing we might see soon is the 'refuse to crash' software, which is similar to software already incorporated into fighter FBW systems. It uses the EGPWS database of terrain and obstructions, and would tell the autopilot to alter course or climb to avoid CFIT accidents. Computers are not infallible, though, so it would need to have the ability to be disabled by the pilot if it malfunctioned.
 
O.K. I'm wrong...

You can put your head back in the sand now. I'll be quiet.
 
Old joke

The crew for the next generation airliner will consist of a man and a dog. The function of the man will be to feed bones to the dog; the function of the dog will be to bite the man if he tries to touch anything but the dog-bones.

:D

On a related note, I recall a joke running around the FSI Citation learning center in ITC back in the early 90's:

The CJ is powered by the Williams F-44 turbofan; originally designed as an engine for cruise missiles. The joke concerned an AD on the CJ autopilot due to the tendency for the plane to turn towards Iraq whenever the autopilot was engaged.
 
Re: Old joke

Brother Francis said:
The joke concerned an AD on the CJ autopilot due to the tendency for the plane to turn towards Iraq whenever the autopilot was engaged.

There is no presence of American infidels in the city of Baghdad at all! Your forces committed suicide by the hundreds. ... The battle is very fierce and God made us victorious!
 
three things, maybe four!

xtremeGod...great new avatar!

Brother Francis...funny joke...definitely a knee slapper!

FlyChicaga...Thanks, I'll have my head in the clouds tomorrow...craning my neck to look for ICE (yea...robots figure that schtick out, eh?) and catching up on paper work.

Here is a link to entertain and amaze you anti robot guys...click to enter, if you dare to face future shock!

http://www.the-robotman.com/nv_fs.html
 

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