Pilot Shortage

[gunfyter]

Yes I am rich and I need more taxcuts. LOL. I knew that would get Glass going.

But the point I am trying to make is whether it is a Division of Labor ... or Business ownership ... there needs to be rewards commensurate with the relative Risk of failure and success.

The Pilot needs to reap the rewards of all those others who failed to make it in this industry and the Business owners needs to recoup the losses of those who failed in business.

This is what Adam Smith says... Not me. Which I bring up to justify better pilot compensation in view of the coming Pilot Shortage.

Yes I do think the old man (Walter Huston) explained it well in Sierra Madre ...

 

[glasspilot]

Well...it's a viewpoint.

 

[gunfyter]

I just got briefed at CNATRA. The Navy (including Marines) is making only 650 pilots per year. 47% of that will be Rotor. I am told the Air Force is making a similar number ... not sure how many will be UAV pilots.

This is of concern to me personally as my son is AF ROTC and is selecting this year. We don't think he is going to get a pilot slot. Thats why I was looking into the Navy.

Flight schools are not making pilots.

Where are the pilots the Airlines and others need going to come from? With 1500 hours.
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AOPA Online: General Aviation Trends

Private Certificates Issued
A total of 14,977 private certificates were issued in 2010, a 25% decrease compared to the same period in 2009 (4,916 less issuances).

Commercial Certificates Issued
The number of new commercial pilot certificates issued in 2010 reached a total of 8,056. This number represents a 29% decrease compared to 2009 (3,327 less new commercial pilot certificates issued).

 

[gunfyter]

Pilot Shortage May Develop as Job Loses ... - The Cutting Edge News

The traditional route to the large airlines begins at regional carriers, where the average starting salary is $24,000. Depending on interest rates, a loan payment could drain the lion’s share of a young pilot’s monthly paycheck. An $80,000 loan—at 8 percent on a 10-year amortization schedule—requires a $970.62 monthly payment, which would be nearly half the pre-tax monthly salary of a new pilot.

The Air Force expects a mere 240 pilots to separate or retire in 2010—81 percent fewer than just three years earlier.

The legislation raises the experience required to be a commercial airline pilot from 250 hours to 1,500 hours within two years. The increase is expected to particularly affect regional airlines, where most young pilots begin their careers

 

[pilotyip]

All part of the 2012 hiring boom, oh! to be 30 years old again as a 2500 hour pilot leaving the Navy. Navy trained 3600 pilot in 1968 the year I got my wings, biggest training year since Korea. Military pilots were a dime a dozen in the late 70's with all the post-Veitnam RIF's.

 

[gunfyter]

Yip,

The Navy will train fewer than 360 fixed wing pilots next year. Less than 10% of your 1968 number.

 

[GooseHZ]

MY GOD what will the AIRLINES do without all those GODLIKE Military pilots.....

 

[wacoflyr]

So there's hope. Not certainty, by any means, but hope. By the way, I don't believe the value of a pilot is as simple as any of us have explained it.

Take lawyers. Now, you could argue that lawyers are less than worthless, but hey, they are highly educated, and they do have a necessary function. The problem, as explained to me by my father (a retired lawyer) is that law schools keep making them. And lawyers, as a breed, are both hard working and intelligent, so they are going to make work if they can't find work. And that work comes at the expense of you and me. But there average starting pay has fallen through the floor, and few ever make good money at all. Clearly, there is an oversupply problem. Hence all the lawyer jokes.

Now let's look at doctors. Doctors are highly trained, and the medical schools and teaching hospitals keep turning them out. There pay has fallen, some, but by and large they have not suffered the same as laywers. Why? I believe that a doctor has a higher intrinsic value than a lawyer, and therefore society is willing to pay a doctor more, even in a competitive situation.

Any way you cut it, they all make lousy pilots.

Now you come to us. We have more value to society, I submit, than a lawyer. Maybe we are somewhere around the level of an electrician, say, or a civil engineer. We are certainly not worth anywhere near what a doctor is worth. We are just not as highly educated. However, there will soon be a shortage of supply.

I guess my point is that the equation is very complicated, and cannot be solved easily. I believe there will be a pilot shortage. I believe that will help those of us who are currently in the business. I cannot see any circumstance that will make me recommend this occupation to anybody who does not love it. There is no other reason to be here.

Oh, the fairtax? Give me a break. It sounds a little bit like the patriot act. In both cases, the hypocrisy is just a little too obvious.

Waco

 

[pilotyip]

MY GOD what will the AIRLINES do without all those GODLIKE Military pilots.....

They have already figured it out, the mil pilots all go to FedEx and UPS and all the other airlines have to hire civilians.

 

[gunfyter]

MY GOD what will the AIRLINES do without all those GODLIKE Military pilots.....

They will be godless....