Pilot Shortage INfo

[ReverseSensing]

Who the hell can afford to learn to fly these day? What's avgas now, $5-$6 bucks a gallon. I can't even afford to rent a plane to take visitors sightseeing these days.

 

[settogathrust]

No pilot shortage, don't get all excited.

 

[pilotyip]

There is a growing experience shortage and there appears to be a continual redefining of competitive minimums (read lower standards) to ensure there is no shortage. But on the entry level even that doesn't seem to work. We are seeing a shortage and my interview schedule is full; but then again we start at 34K.

 

[Lear70]

Whats if they are 18 or 19??? Still teenagers, just legal ones!

There are some older guys on here with teenage girls who are probably getting a little wild and doing more than daddy would like (or probably more than daddy knows about), so some people get sensitive.

18 is legal in all 50 states.
16 in some of them.



Back to the subject at hand... As long as the regionals can find pilots from SOMEWHERE, even ab initio programs, NOTHING WILL CHANGE.

The majors will always have enough qualified applicants to fill the seats. They might have to lower their minimums or stop being so d*mn picky (Southwest, FDX), but the more regionals expand, the more Captains they need and, subsequently, the more qualified pilots with PIC Jet are looking for jobs at majors.

Doesn't really help our bottom line in the States.

Internationally? That's the big ticket item. Major shortage coming up in India, Japan, China, Australia, and a few EU airlines as they take BIG deliveries of 777's and soon 787's with no pilots who have ever flown those aircraft before available to hire.

If you want to see the world, THAT'S the way to do it.

I predict a 30% increase in major airline pay for the next 5 years as new contracts are ratified, then I predict that Open Skies will cause so much bleeding of the bottom line for the majors and LCC's that management will be back screaming for more concessions within 5-7 years from now.

 

[Black Hawk]

Something new overseas. The student pilot never flies solo during training and can only fly in a crew environment.

These "crew only" pilots are missing out of the huge confidence building that solo flight develops. If this comes into being a pilot's first solo will be in an emergency situation when the other crewmember dies or is otherwise incapacitated. Not the best conditions for a first solo.

 

[GoingHot]

....now can you predict when pay parity shows up?

Parity? No such thing in a free-market economy. Airlines and other operators pay what the market will bear. If pilots continue to show up to fly a $25 million jet for $19 an hour, they will keep paying $19. Can you blame them? They're in the business to "make money", not to buy speed boats and third wives for pilots.

McDonalds use to pay the french-fry crew minimum wage. Today, even in small towns, they have to pay twice that or they won't have a french-fry crew. No Government, Union or anyone else told McDonalds they had to pay double the minimum wage. Those orders were issued by the free-market.

BTW, there is something called SJS that sometimes overrides normal market forces. There is no GAS, (Golden Arches Syndrone).

 

[Steve]

Parity? No such thing in a free-market economy. Airlines and other operators pay what the market will bear. If pilots continue to show up to fly a $25 million jet for $19 an hour, they will keep paying $19. Can you blame them? They're in the business to "make money", not to buy speed boats and third wives for pilots.

McDonalds use to pay the french-fry crew minimum wage. Today, even in small towns, they have to pay twice that or they won't have a french-fry crew. No Government, Union or anyone else told McDonalds they had to pay double the minimum wage. Those orders were issued by the free-market.

BTW, there is something called SJS that sometimes overrides normal market forces. There is no GAS, (Golden Arches Syndrone).

Well put. Milton Friedman would shake your hand

 

[Goose Egg]

18 is legal in all 50 states. 16 in some of them.

Just because it's legal doesn't mean that it isn't seedy.

-Goose

 

[BGSkyGuy]

Ups and Downs

Do you guys think this is all going to last? If I learned anything in my stupid avition courses in college it was that the business has always been cyclic in nature. What will it take to maintain high pay and job security for say 20 years? YIP you are the man, you've been preaching this for a while now. By the way, I just got hired at a small cargo outfit and I'll be based in YIP. Any good bars?

 

[WMUSIGPI]

Try the Lake Point Yaht Club in Livona. Good prices and the ocassional hot waitress.

 

[pilotyip]

The Lakeview Travern in downtown Belleville is the place. Better know as the "Wedge". PM me and I will join you there for a beer.

 

[Goose Egg]

Man, if there's one dude I'd want to meet on here, it would be pilotyip. There's so much I'd want to pick his brain about. Sort of a funny coincidence, I used to live in Belleville. It was about 10 years ago, so I don't remember a whole lot though... Ahh Michigan... loved the lakes but they weren't salty enough.

-Goose

 

[GearUpLightsIn]

Something new overseas. The student pilot never flies solo during training and can only fly in a crew environment.

Yeah this is Scott Hall's answer for the shortage... When a guy about took his head off in recurrent the other day and said maybe the airline sholuld pay the pilots a good wage Scott looked at him like he was an alien. Scott is such a tool.

Scott also said the FAA wasn't too keen on the idea. Good to see the FAA get something right.

 

[LewisU_Pilot]

Hi!

From another website...



HOLD OUT FOR MORE PAY!!!

cliff
YIP

Curious what web site you got that from? I call BS on that. I am a CFI in the Chicago area and don't know of any FBO's that employed that many CFI's.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

I think it was propilot.com, but I'm not sure-I'm on about 7 aviation message boards.

cliff
GRB

 

[Metro752]

Something new overseas. The student pilot never flies solo during training and can only fly in a crew environment.

Over on PPRUNE the NZ/Australian section, "GodZone & Dunnunda" they are talking about the first "batch" of multi-crew only pilots about to hatch in Oz.

 

[waverider]

Over on PPRUNE the NZ/Australian section, "GodZone & Dunnunda" they are talking about the first "batch" of multi-crew only pilots about to hatch in Oz.

God help them

 

[HA25]

Hi!

From another website...



HOLD OUT FOR MORE PAY!!!

cliff
YIP

Never.. repeat NEVER.. will we have a shortage as long as the regionals are hiring 300-400TT and then inside of 2 years those guys are captains on 50,000lb RJ's..

I wish these excited young CFI's would demand more starting pay at least... I can understand the desire to get your career started, but these guys should see the effect that they're having on the profession when they jump in both feet into a $16/hr job flying a jet!

 

[HA25]

These "crew only" pilots are missing out of the huge confidence building that solo flight develops. If this comes into being a pilot's first solo will be in an emergency situation when the other crewmember dies or is otherwise incapacitated. Not the best conditions for a first solo.

So true...

Just as there is something to be said for having a bunch of crew time before your major airline job.... it's also a good thing to have spent a few hundred hours alone, with no one else to give you so much as a tip on what to do next.

For me, (and it's been my path) Ideally, the progression of a pilot would be.. lots of instruction in the form of duel received, then a lot of solo time, and a lot of CFI time (military equiv.), and then some small aircraft crew time, with a command for at least 1000 hours in that small aircraft.. then progress into a large or heavy with inevitable command of that.

 

[Goose Egg]

I wish these excited young CFI's would demand more starting pay at least... I can understand the desire to get your career started, but these guys should see the effect that they're having on the profession when they jump in both feet into a $16/hr job flying a jet!

I think that I may be doing that by default. Economically, I simply cannot afford to fly for a regional right now. So, I guess I'm voting with my feet, possibly heading to 135 where I can at least make enough to get by. I demand more by withholding my presence. Most regionals right now, even the "good" ones, would be a pay cut from my instructing job, and I'm barely scratching by as it is.

-Goose