Ooouuch!

[lowecur]

AWA

Their LF's were up 2 pts, with the addition of almost 5% capacity yr over yr. Since they are really WN's biggest competitor out of PHX and LAS, this probably means they have taken a bite out of WN's nmbers. I'd be interested in seeing the numbers from Manchester and Providence for January to see if the battle of Boston between AMR, DAL, and B6 is having an affect.

 

[General Lee]

Lowecur,

An AWA employee (supposedly) said (on the airliners.net board) that their transcon flights have not been full at all, and most had an average of 39% load factor. I think when LCCs venture off on other paths (not their hub and spoke strategy) they can become bumpy. (even with $299 walk up fares) That isn't true about all new routes with LCCs, though....Airtran likes to go to the Major hubs and try to peel away passengers with lower fares. That may work for awhile, but when capacity does come back---that might be really tough on the LCCs (like Airtran taking on AA in DFW---AA will lower the fares too, but increase fares elsewhere to make up the difference--like INTL routes from DFW). That will be an interesting one to watch....

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[lowecur]

General

Falling back on international routes has been a nice cushion over the years. I just saw where Alitalia is offering r/t to Rome from Miami for $299. They have the pricing power to do this with the falling dollar, and this will hurt US carriers. AMR has a vast international route structure of which none is more profitable than South America/Carribean/Central America out of MIA ( I see DL is going back to Buenes Aires from ATL). They indeed can use this to cover their losses in the US, but most of the other international routes have plenty of competition.

FL will have a tough time in DFW, but they knew that going in. They have the staying power.

 

[General Lee]

Lowecur,

I understand your point, and I don't want Delta to be a Pan Am (only INTL or defunct for that matter......). The Summer time is usually a cash cow for INTL travel, and you are right there usually is a lot more competition---like AA anouncing today that they will start JFK--Brussels (DL and CO are already flying there from JFK/EWR) and JFK--Rome also. That might hurt us, but usually the INTL carriers do not dive too far for Summer fares. (That is not true for Spring or Fall fares, where they just want to fill seats)

DL offers a good escape from MIA for Latin and South American travel, due to the fact that we have one stop service (thru ATL) to 150 cities---and AA does not have that at MIA. Hopefully we can exploit that eventually.....We are adding more flights southbound (like Buenos Aires), and the Carribean is a good bet ---we are adding JFK--San Juan and Santo Domingo on mainline. People were nervous about some INTL travel during the War last year, and a lot flocked closer to home--in the Carribean.

As far as Airtran and their staying power, I agree that they can fight the long fight (like in ATL), but the Majors will make it harder on them, and probably hurting themselves in the process. Let's wish for a great economy, lower fuel prices, and good negotiations.....


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Slug]

loads

Liars figure and figures lie.

SWA load factor went down on and increase in ASM.

DL and NWA LF went up on a reduction in capacity.

Sounds like even steven to me (to a point)

http://www.thestreet.com/_excite/markets/ericgillin/10141646.html?cf=WSIWON1111051500&alias=/ht/nw

 

[Dizel8]

However, DAL entry into the JFK-SJU market does more then just target jetBlue, now DAL is actively moving into AA territory, as DAL is into UAL territory with the JFK-DEN. Somehow, I am sure there will be some sort of response, perhaps AA will target a few DAL flights.

Perhaps this is once, where the big boys will go after each other, normally they just maintain their "prearranged" market.

 

[lowecur]

Slug

Liars figure and figures lie.

SWA load factor went down on and increase in ASM.

DL and NWA LF went up on a reduction in capacity.

Sounds like even steven to me (to a point)

Thanks for the report. You are comparing apples and oranges. DL and NWA are hamstrung with expense problems, and have elected to outsource mainline routes to RJ's to compensate (thus the reduction of capacity). Once these problems are reversed, then you can make that comparison. Try comparing it to two legacy's with their expenses in decent order ie: AA & CAL. Even ALK had an increase in capacity of 4.3%, and increased their LF by 4.4 pts. I don't think you caught the most important paragraph:

For Southwest, the year-over-year drop in monthly traffic, while just 0.5%, marked the first time since November 2002 that the carrier had seen any weakness in the metric and helped the carrier post the weakest January load factor since 1999.