Oil Supply....point/counterpoint

[miles otoole]

Jesus Jetflyer, I just wasted 20 minutes of my life.

Do you belong to the church of scientology as well?

Move on, young man.

 

[mother fokker]

Jesus Jetflyer, I just wasted 20 minutes of my life.

Do you belong to the church of scientology as well?

Move on, young man. Obedience to lawful authority is the foundation of manly character." Robert E. Lee

Do you usually cruise aviation boards looking for "obedient manly characters"?

 

[jetflyer]

Guys there is plenty of oil for us to fly on in our lifetime. When it does run out...and I do stress WHEN.......theres nothing we can do about it anyway.

Oil will NEVER run out on the planet. NEVER.

WORLD OIL SUPPLY, like has happened in 33 of the 48 major oil producing countries, will decline by about 3-5% per year after the NEW SUPPLIES DO NOT OVERCOME THE GROWING DECLINES.

At first the decline will be very subtle. Then over time the decline will go from .5% to 3+%

The North Sea has been declining at 17% per year.

Australia's oil production has been declining overall by about 15%.

The U.S. has declined EVERY YEAR since 1970 and has averaged a 2% decline. The U.S. production even declined after the Alaska North Slope was brought online and the Gulf of Mexico drilling. Oil production declined this last year as well, even after the largest increase in oil wells ever. The U.S. at it's maximum in 1970 pumped around 10mb/d. We now produce about 5mb/d. We use 20.5 mb/d.

The Mexican Oil company that controls the CANTARELL oil field(largest offshore field) in the Gulf of Mexico expects within the next year that it will decline by 10-15% per year. The owners of the field said that, not an outside group.

The more advanced techniques that are used, such as horizontal well techniques, carbon or water injection, etc. the faster the depletion is of the field after max production is achieved.

The decline of oil wells is a natural event. We should have seen this coming from a million miles away, and already had alternatives on the market. But those that stood to make money from current car, tire, and oil controlled the U.S. transportation market and have lobbied heavily against all other forms of transportation except the American automobile. Hmmm, didn't Bush just cut subsidies to Amtrack???

Bush's plan to get us out of this mess, is a good one, but will it be enough?? The energy policy was being pushed in 2001, until 9/11. Then Iraq became a major priority to control a large amount of oil and have a base in the Middle East, where the oil is. The energy policy is back which will provide much needed Nuclear Power plants. We will also begin coal gassification in the future, and to produce oil from the shale in the U.S. The Canadian oilsands are much needed as well. Eventually we'll drill in ANWAR, but this much needed 1mb/d won't be available for 7-10 years.

The current decline from DECLINING countries and eventual decline from the others, is VERY HARD TO OVERCOME. Experts predict even with the above measures, OIL WILL REACH PEAK by 2007-2008, even if you account for all the MAJOR NEW PROJECTS in the works and ENHANCED RECOVERY TECHNIQUES to get the EXPENSIVE OIL. The declines are just too large from the 33 countries in decline.

OIL PRICES will probably go close to $70.00 this year, and then next year will probably go down to around the low $50.00s for a while, because there is supposed to be a significant increase in supply by this time next year from CURRENT MEGAPROJECTS like the Thunderhorse Platform in the Gulf. Let's hope these megaprojects produce as desired. Next fall and beyond is going to depend on how fast hybrids and alternatives like biofuels can be ramped up, because the supply of oil is going to start having problems increasing.

Bush is pushing the Hydrogen economy to keep the power in the transportation industry the same. Exxon will now just produce, transport, and deliver hydrogen to the masses. The hydrogen economy is a joke and will not be technologically ready and cost effective till about 10-20 years.<--From experts in the field.

Electric cars, and Electric-Hybrids are a much better idea. Nobody is making them yet, but there is PLUG-IN ELECTRIC Hybrid technology that will give people the option to plug in their car at night. Then the car will be able to run 30 miles on just the batteries of the Hybrid. If extra power is needed during this time, the gas engine will kick in. There are companies now that will do this modification on the current hybrids. They input larger batteries and other neccessary components. Over time the batteries will get stronger and maybe allow 200 miles etc. but this is a threat to the current ENERGY POWERS, so there will be a lot of pressure against this technology.

Thermal Depolymerization plants, which can turn any carbon based waste like waste turkey parts from Butterball, etc., can make oil. They accelerate the process that naturally occurs in the ground from heat and pressure. This technology was just given tax incentives in the Energy Policy. These plants are going to be developed everywhere. The bad thing is they only produce hundreds of barrels a day, not the millions we need. They will help though.

Biofuels by 2030 according to Bush himself, can be ramped up to provide 20% of America's needs at that time. There needs to be more research on which biofuels are the most effective. Several studies have said they are energy DRAINS and use more energy than they provide. THIS WOULD NOT BE A GOOD THING. Ethanol, soy beans, palm, algae, switch-grass? and many other crops can be made into fuels. Ethanol from corn and soy beans have been said to be close to energy drains, but these two crops have POWERFUL LOBBY groups, that will push them even if they are inneffective. Other crops would be much better than ethanol and soy beans, but do those crops have powerful lobby groups in the government?

We need to stop letting Political Lobbying groups run America. We need to do what is effective and produces results, not what the powers want so they can make MONEY. Let's hope we do before we're forced to.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

I found some interesting commentary about where the U.S. gets its supply of oil from. What might come as a total surprise to many is that CANADA of all places is where we get most of our imports from! Equally as shocking might be that MEXICO is number 2, Venezuela number 3, then finally Saudi Arabia at number 4.

So if we take over Saudi Arabia next we'll have a lot more oil for a while, since they produce a total of 9 mbd and we only get 1.5mbd from them. Well that is in theory only, cause we've seen what's happened in Iraq. They are down over 1 million barrels/day since our invasion

The entire post can be found on the OILDRUM blog at:
http://theoildrum.blogspot.com/2005/08/crystal-ball-though-murky-is-not-empty.html

It is useful to review where we get our oil from. We did it here and here in more detail, but it can be simplified to figures from the OGJ(Oil and Gas Journal) that show that, in April 2005, the US imported oil from Algeria (0.467 mbd); Kuwait (0.164 mbd); Nigeria (1.243 mbd); Saudi Arabia (1.494 mbd); Venezuela (1.567 mbd); Other OPEC (0.597 mbd); Angola (0.365 mbd); Canada (2.190 mbd); Mexico (1.632 mbd); Norway (0.250 mbd); UK (0.394 mbd); Virgin Islands (0.358 mbd) and other non-OPEC (2.655 mbd) [1 mbd = 1,000,000 barrels a day].

Of these Mexico has just gone into depletion, Venezuela for political or geological reasons has dropped a possible 1 mbd of production over the past year, Saudi Arabia may or may not be at peak production, but has set aside 800,000 bd of new production just to offset depletion in its older fields, Canada is relying on tar sands for increases and at no more than around 150,000 bd/year; the North Sea appears now to be depleting at around 500,000 bd/yr (UK and Norway); Iraq is still dropping in production – at present it is down around 100,000 bd over last year (that may be the other OPEC); Angola is just starting to increase production as is Algeria; Kuwait is up around 20,000 bd; and Nigeria is staying stable, but appears to have significant political problems.

Let's hope Saudi Arabia (which Matthew Simmons says is near Peak) as well as IRAQ, Canada, Angola, Algeria, and Kuwait can increase production significantly to overcome the declines from the others and pump enough to account for the U.S.'s 2% per year DEMAND increase.

I have no doubt they will be able to for atleast 2 years. ASPO says after 2008 the World oil will have peaked, so the U.S. may not be affected as far as SUPPLY goes if we can still get the same or increasing amounts of oil from our major importers. We may have to PERSUADE them with force to keep the supply coming to us at the expense of other countries, but I do think that will happen

Many developing countries are struggling HARD from the high oil prices now and are experiencing an ENERGY CRISIS where people are rioting and are mad at their governments. So oil usage is going down in these countries because they can't afford the black gold. So this frees up oil for us dirty, rich Americans It will take $5.00+/gallon for us to be significantly affected. Before then other countries will have already been significantly more affected.

I recommend that you guys interested in the SUPPLY of oil, Peak Oil, Oil Demand, the Politics and Economics of OIL, etc. read the 2-3 daily posts on:
http://theoildrum.blogspot.com/


Jet

 

[jetflyer]

EVERYONE interested in the SUPPLY OF OIL, should listen to MATTHEW SIMMONS talk on JIM PUPLAVA's FINANCIAL SENSE NEWSHOUR on August 6th.


Matthew Simmons was an advisor to the Bush Administration on the Energy Policy. He's a REPUBLICAN, not a left wing wacko.

LISTEN to the program at the site below. His interview was on the SECOND HOUR. Below I've added the links to the audio formats.


http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm


Select an Audio Format below to listen to Matthew Simmons about OIL SUPPLY Problems:[font=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]
RealPlayer l WinAmp l Windows Media l mp3

Jet[/font]

 

[Singlecoil]

This all reminds me of those TV commercials you periodically see that are trying to sell you gold and other precious metals. They usually go something like, "Gold offers the best hedge against inflation, is poised for a rally....etc". Who is paying for this commercial? Someone who wants to get rid of the gold they own!