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OIL Prices

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Good post Bigred,

I agree there is no need for crude right now. There's no refineries to refine it!

I wonder if demand isn't going down since after the hurricanes though, because the economy is slowing?

Let's just hope the high prices at the pumps and low consumer sentiment doesn't pop the housing bubble.

Plus the bankruptcy laws are changing and in December the credit card companies are going to make the minimum 4% instead of 2% so someone with 10,000 in credit card debt will have to pay a minimum of $400 instead of $200.

This change to the minimum payment comes just in time for people to start seeing their NATURAL GAS BILLS virtually DOUBLE from last year. Great.

I'm also worried a lot of money going into the economy is going to be lost if the housing bubble starts to deflate, because people won't have money to pull out of their homes. This puls the natural gas prices, and the changes to the minimum payments could be a real drag on the economy.

We could see a serious slowdown in the economy reducing demand a TON for OIL, and really could see the oil prices come down significantly.

4th quarter will be interesting for sure. The original estimate for 4th quarter demand was 86 mbd, with the world producing now after Katrina 83 mbd. So this will have to be overcome, but there are a lot of crude inventories. Also with the loss of natural gas from the Gulf, Heating oil demand may actually be higher. So both these things suggest we may see a rise in crude price.

I think the prices will most likely linger around the $60 line till more clarity is seen on how cold the winter is. If it's cold they'll go higher, warm lower.

Cross your fingers.

Jet
 
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I just installed my Magnetic Power home heater. Man, I'll be thumbing my nose at the gas companies this winter!!!
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For the sake of us all, I so sincerely hope you are correct. However, I am afraid it's all about spin. One can find all the information they wish about the expected rise or fall of crude. Whichever advice/ evidence you post will certainly make it seem as though that is indeed the gospel of the moment. The reality is there is still PLENTY of analysis out there by the so-called "experts" that call for oil/ nat gas to go way higher. While I feel most of these idiot experts are just that, idiots (almost 100% of the oil/ energy analysts called for oil to stabilize at $30/ $40/ and $50 per barrel... they only started to predict higher prices once oil hit $60, hence my comment about they being "experts", HAH!), the fact is until we gain a foothold on the terror war oil will continue to remain extremely expensive. And just one hit to any oil pruducer by a terror group will likely tip the scale higher. "It's about war, Stupid", jsut as the '92 elections were about the economy. Oil only stabilizes in times of peace.

That said, I'm of the belief that we will finally gain the upper hand on the terror war by end of next summer. We're actually doing quite well against Al-Qaeda but we are loosing the psychological war. Their (the terrorists) hits are small and mainly to the Iraqi population but those hits give some the impression that we are losing... well, that impression is sparked further by most of liberal hollywood (most of whom have the intelligence of a bag of rocks). When we win the war on terror, oil will start coming back down to reasonable levels ($40-$50/ barrel). But only once we gain the upper hand on Zarqawi and crew. In the meantime, consider this: Energy costs have grwon by $100 billion while nationwide wage growth in America has grown by $1.1 trillion (CNBC), obviously this figure excludes airline pilots. Some analysts are making the argument that income growth continues to out-pace energy inflation, and therefore the higher energy costs are sustainable. I personally think their wrong (I have a Wall Street background). Most of the income growth is in the top 5% of the population, while most of the energy costs are bourne by 95% of the population. It's the latter that is feeling the pinch as a result of severly high energy costs.

Anyway, GOD I hope you're right. We need oil to drop quick!
 
whymeworry? said:
For the sake of us all, I so sincerely hope you are correct. However, I am afraid it's all about spin. One can find all the information they wish about the expected rise or fall of crude. Whichever advice/ evidence you post will certainly make it seem as though that is indeed the gospel of the moment. The reality is there is still PLENTY of analysis out there by the so-called "experts" that call for oil/ nat gas to go way higher. While I feel most of these idiot experts are just that, idiots (almost 100% of the oil/ energy analysts called for oil to stabilize at $30/ $40/ and $50 per barrel... they only started to predict higher prices once oil hit $60, hence my comment about they being "experts", HAH!), the fact is until we gain a foothold on the terror war oil will continue to remain extremely expensive. And just one hit to any oil pruducer by a terror group will likely tip the scale higher. "It's about war, Stupid", jsut as the '92 elections were about the economy. Oil only stabilizes in times of peace.

That said, I'm of the belief that we will finally gain the upper hand on the terror war by end of next summer. We're actually doing quite well against Al-Qaeda but we are loosing the psychological war. Their (the terrorists) hits are small and mainly to the Iraqi population but those hits give some the impression that we are losing... well, that impression is sparked further by most of liberal hollywood (most of whom have the intelligence of a bag of rocks). When we win the war on terror, oil will start coming back down to reasonable levels ($40-$50/ barrel). But only once we gain the upper hand on Zarqawi and crew. In the meantime, consider this: Energy costs have grwon by $100 billion while nationwide wage growth in America has grown by $1.1 trillion (CNBC), obviously this figure excludes airline pilots. Some analysts are making the argument that income growth continues to out-pace energy inflation, and therefore the higher energy costs are sustainable. I personally think their wrong (I have a Wall Street background). Most of the income growth is in the top 5% of the population, while most of the energy costs are bourne by 95% of the population. It's the latter that is feeling the pinch as a result of severly high energy costs.

Anyway, GOD I hope you're right. We need oil to drop quick!

Hate to burst your bubble there bub, but most of the terrorist attacks here in Iraq are committed by homegrown Iraqis.

G
 
Cobra said:
Hate to burst your bubble there bub, but most of the terrorist attacks here in Iraq are committed by homegrown Iraqis.

G

You're not bursting my bubble at all, I am hoping oil drops as well. Whether or not the terror is being brought on by local Iraqis or by in influx of new volunteers from eleswhere in the Arab world, the fact still remains, so long as the war on terror continues, the oil markets will continue to speculate on upcoming disruptions (perhaps disruptions that could be caused by terrorists) and it is the markets that are propping up the price of oil.
 

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