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Oil Prices Slide More Than $2.50 a Barrel

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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices fell below $50 on Friday, to the lowest in 10 weeks, as traders focused on slow economic growth and expanding crude oil supplies in the United States.



U.S. light crude settled at $49.72 a barrel, down 4 percent on the day, while London Brent crude fell $1.39 to $51.09.

It was the first time since Feb. 18 that U.S. oil prices settled under $50. And oil prices fell 10 percent in the past week.

Prices have dropped 14.7 percent since the $58.28 record high for U.S. crude set April 4. OPEC has been producing near full-tilt as U.S. demand is going through its seasonal second-quarter lull. That has brought crude supplies to their highest level since mid-2002.

U.S. government data on Thursday showed the slowest rate of economic growth in two years, with the U.S. economy expanding at an annualized rate of 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2005.

Analysts said that while supply-and-demand fundamental factors are bearish, the oil price slide Friday was also linked to technical pricing factors such as crude breaching $50.

"We broke through psychological support at $50 and many people would say they're going to sell, thinking maybe the bull market is over," said Mark Waggoner, president of Excel Futures Inc., of Huntington Beach, California.

Katherine Spector, head of energy research at JP Morgan Securities in New York, said in the past year to 18 months of escalating oil prices, there have been downward corrections every two or three months.

The key to a lower price that is sustainable and not just a short-term correction the market has experienced in the past year "is the continued availability of fresh barrels of oil and further signs of sluggish growth such as Thursday's below-expected U.S. GDP growth figure," wrote analysts at brokerage Refco.

"If recent reappraisals of the outlook for global economic growth this year continue to be downgraded, then it is possible to see oil revisit the upper-$40s. But we aren't out of the woods in terms of gasoline, given the typical seasonal peak in prices during the spring ahead of the summer driving season."

Commercial inventories in the United States, the world's biggest oil user, jumped 5.5 million barrels last week following the third-highest import flow total on record, data showed on Wednesday.

U.S. crude oil stockpiles now stand 9 percent above one year ago while gasoline inventories are running at the top end of the range for the time of year. President Bush, who met earlier this week with Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah, said on Thursday that his administration would encourage oil producers to maximize output.
 
FDJ2, where did you get your numbers for the oil prices today...I am getting mine from Reuters and it is usually 20 mins. delayed...If you have a source that I can use which shows it Real Time I would love to use it...Like I said Im not an expert just Bullish on Oil Prices...To be honest, in one sense I hope Im wrong but I really believe oil goes higher this summer after falling maybe as low as 44/bbl. I think that would be way low....

Anyhow, please let me know if your able to get the numbers REAL Time when the US Markets are open...That would be a big help....

Dont worry about me taking anything wrong....It takes at least two to even have a Market....And to answer your question, OPEC from what I understand has repeatedly stated that they have plenty of OIL for the World which you know their going to say......they contend that it is our Refinery Process that can not keep up with their supply.....I know it sounds weird but as long as we can not Refine as fast as our demand which is not the case this week or month then we have an Oil Shortage....Thats my understanding.....Thanks for any Info you have....Im still long on Refineries in the USA....XOM&VLO Sorry this post is not more specific but its been a long day...Just finished work and I need a break...
 
chperplt,,,,,,,,,,200 Day Moving Average Ring A Bell.....I dont think anyone here has claimed to be an expert on Future Contracts...Im merely stating my position....Thats Right....MY POSITION....Im Long on Oil....Thats it and Thats All My fellow Aviator. I have made a pretty good sum of money over the last year by actively trading in the market...Its become my second job to flying...If I continue to be correct I will be pushing for retirement by Age 50...Just trying to make a buck "BRO". Enjoy the weekend...The Markets open in approx 57hours...Will you be there...????? Im already there...Fly Safe...
 
FDJ2, you bring up something that I've wondered about for some time. There are numerous issues related to the price of refined fuels that just don't make sense.

In no particular order, I wonder about:

Why doesn't the rest of the world get pissed when a US refinery fire is responsible for an increase in the price of barrel of crude? Think about it!

How can China and other low wage (extremely low wage) countries achieve a growing vibrant economy with a worldwide crude price at todays levels? I would think that high oil prices would hurt emerging economies much more than they hurt the US economy.

How Iraq now pumps less crude than it did before the war. I'm beginning to believe that the latest war was a war for oil, a war to take oil off the market, not put it into the market. If Iraq was pumping at 2002 levels (according to a news report I heard this morning on KLIF Dallas, or maybe to the Wheels auto news report) we'd have an additional two billion barrels of oil on the market. It makes me wonder what's going on.

That's all for now, does anyone else see any flaws in the logic behind worldwide oil prices?

All questions aside, I believe that the price we pay is related only to what we are willing to pay. Period. When the American people park their vehicles more and drive less, the price of gasoline will drop. Asssuming of course that the government doesn't increase the tax. If we could all just manage to arrange our lives to reduce our driving by ten percent we could make a huge dent in the price of fuel.

enigma
 
Focus said:
FDJ2, where did you get your numbers for the oil prices today...I am getting mine from Reuters and it is usually 20 mins. delayed...QUOTE]

Sorry, I don't have real time quotes. My numbers came from Reuters after the market closed on Friday. http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=8349805

You're probably wise to invest in refineries, it's not like the demand is going to go away and there is no hyper growth of LCR (low cost refineries).:)
 
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You're going to hear a lot about refinery shortages in the US. The big oil propaganda machine is in full swing. If the general public panics enough, republican law makers will be able to tear down environmental laws and pass more legislation granting subsidies to oil companies.

Last week the fiscally responsible republican party passed an energy bill that granted $22 billion in subsities to the oil industry.
 
Hi!

Airline Fuel Costs:
The CEO of SWA said that if airlines aren't prepared for $55/barrel prices, they are deluding themselves.

Saudi production:
Saudi Arabia has been saying they will increase production repeatedly for months and months. I don't think their production has increased at all from about a year or so ago.

Mathew Simmons, who is an oil insider, and was an energy advisor to the Bush team, has stated that Saudi production has already peaked, several years ago, and is in decline now.

***Does anyone have any information as to Saudi output the last 24 months?*** I haven't seen any numbers, and would like to know.

Emerging economies:
China is trying desperately to both build up the alternative energy sources, and secure oil supplies all around the globe. They just signed a deal with Canada, and have been in Venezuela trying to work out an oil deal with them.

Iraq War II:
We did NOT go into Iraq to cut their production! We went there to secure a source of oil that is non-OPEC so that OPEC doesn't have as much influence over us.

Unfortunately, the Bush team, among other serious deficiencies, did not anticipate that the oil production and supply facilities in Iraq would be attacked day after day by the insurgents, and that this would cripple oil production.

Daily oil production is WAY down over what it was when Saddam was in power. The Bush administration believed it would be much higher than before, and this revenue would pay for the reconstruction of Iraq. This is one of the reasons that you and I (the US taxpayers) are footing huge bills to rebuild Iraq and try and keep the peace.

Long-term Oil Prices:
Oil will rise and fall slightly on a daily/weekly basis (or it may spike up and down if good/bad things happen to the supply) as time goes on, but the trend will be up, up, up until we quit using oil as a transportation fuel.

Cliff
MMIO

PS-I do applaud Bush for telling Congress (and the public) that the oil companies do not need the huge subsidies Congress has passed in the current version of the Energy Bill. He said that since the price of oil is so high, they don't need help. It would help us (the US) out a lot if all the oil/gas/subsidies were transferred to alternative energy research and devolopment.
 
FDJ2 said:
The cost at the pump is primarily driven by the cost of the prime material, crude oil.

Not quite. Here's a clip from a Forbes article on fuel prices...

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2005/0509/100.html

If your car ran on unrefined $42-a-barrel crude and got 20 miles per gallon, fuel would cost you a nickel a mile. But add in the cost of turning crude into gasoline and gasoline into miles--i.e., the amortized cost of refinery and car, plus taxes (which pay for the highway, among other things) and insurance--and the mile runs you 30 cents to 50 cents. The IRS lets you expense 37.5 cents per mile for business travel in your own car. The American Automobile Association estimates that it cost an average of 56 cents per mile to drive a new car in 2004. Or to put it another way, driving would be only 15% cheaper, at most, if crude oil were free, or if your car engine delivered 1,000 miles per gallon.
 

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