NWA and the TPG raising the offer.

[Bill Nelson]

Just talked to a buddy that works at the USA today. He said word is NWA and TPG will raise the offer by close of business tomorrow.

AAI is going to be out of the race shortly.

Look out Frontier. You are next.

 

[hyperboy]

cookies vs. trannies

Let's go Midwest Airlines!

Get er' done!

 

[Fly4hire]

.

Look out Frontier. You are next.

By NWA or AAI?

 

[Bill Nelson]

AAI, they don't have a future without a hub in the center of the country. Midwest is what they want, but KDEN is the next best thing.

They don't have the horsepower to get into MDW or apparently Milwaukee, so DEN is probably next. They aren't going to get gates from United, but for a few hundred million they can buy Frontier. (SWA won't let them do that, but I bet that is plan B)

 

[BoilerUP]

The new IND terminal will be complete in what, late 2008?

 

[AFcitrus]

The more money TPG pays for MEH, the more slashing they have to do to make money on the deal. If you think TPG/NW are in this for anything other than short term profit/eliminating competition, you are sadly fooling yourselves.

This may very well be a power play by AAI to drive up the cost of MEH to TPG, then just sit back and wait to pick up the carnage when it is sold off at bargain rates. Unfortunately, if this IS the case the employees of MEH and people of MKE will be the only losers in this deal. TPG makes money, NW rids themselves of MEH competition, AAI picks up 717's at a bargain price. Oh, by the way the cookies will be the first thing gone. I think many MEH shareholders/MKE citizens are starting to realize this is the reality of the deal and that's why AAI's phone has been ringing off the hook with calls from the MEH shareholders.

 

[gt1900]

afcitrus is probably correct... Stuff like this happens all the time.. Two company's will get into a biding war and one company (aai) will continue to drive the price up so the competitor (nwa) ends up paying way more fore something than they need to.. Hell, AAI could probably drive the price up the $20 per share and NWA would still outbid AAI for MEH... AAI knows how important MKE is to NWA (probably a lot more important than it is to AAI) and you can bet NWA isn't going to let AAI make this deal....... Now, the kicker.... F9 is in the same position as AAI. Both AAI and F9 really need to get another hub to really compete in the long run and to grow (aai will continue to grow, but maybe at a slower pace)... AAI and F9 would probably not be a hostile takeover since it may turn out they need eachother to compete in the long run... Imagine the route structure of AAI and F9 together.. They really would become a huge competitor overnight..

 

[russtgol]

If Airtran does'nt get MKE they are finished...

 

[Citrus531]

If Airtran does'nt get MKE they are finished...

Yeah, close the doors...we're done

 

[PCL_128]

If Airtran does'nt get MKE they are finished...

Keep dreaming, Chuckie.

 

[russtgol]

The Truth Hurts!!!!! Watch those 737's start getting deferred!!!!!

 

[twepilot]

or sold for a nice tidy profit..

RV

 

[Lear70]

If Airtran does'nt get MKE they are finished...

Ummm... yeah... right...

I guess well over $100 Million a year NET profit (which is what is projected for the year) and 8 years of consistent profitability during the worst downturn and highest fuel prices in aviation history count for nothing.

Don't feed the troll.

 

[CitationLover]

....and we degenerate into yet another "my airline is better than yours" argument.

afcitrus,
i can see where you state the bidding is not good for the employees of MEH, however i still fail to see the "slash and burn" that you propose. again you pay $400+ million for something and then simply reduce it to rubble and sell the scraps? no sense whatsoever.

PIECE BY PIECE MEH IS WORTH LESS THAN AS A WHOLE. we are not eastern with a shuttle op and massive miami, atlanta, and nyc hubs. we are not united with the airline, hilton, and hertz. etc etc.

 

[Fly4hire]

AAI, they don't have a future without a hub in the center of the country. Midwest is what they want, but KDEN is the next best thing.

They don't have the horsepower to get into MDW or apparently Milwaukee, so DEN is probably next. They aren't going to get gates from United, but for a few hundred million they can buy Frontier. (SWA won't let them do that, but I bet that is plan B)

The fallacy in this is that they will be able to get in anywhere without major competition and or resistance from the airlines already there. Who says SWA or UAL will go down without a fight or competing bid in DEN, or that NW will not increase it's already substantial presence in IND?

They may have create their own hub like Skybus. Just buying out and invading someone else's hub may well prove to be a much greater challenge than antic pated.

 

[gt1900]

Well... MEH was not a willing suitor.. Timmey doesn't want to give up his baby.. F9 could be a very different story. If F9 is willing (and Ive heard rumors they very well could be) allmost the entire deal could be done behind closed doors. An MEH buyout would have been easy if MEH were open to the idea....... Bill, SWA wouldn't have an option in that case. If the F9 board decides to merge with AAI, the two companys will merge, doesn't matter if UAL or SWA like it or not......... At this point, I think this is AAI just driving up the price of MEH so NWA has to pay too much for them.. Remember, JL used to work for NWA, so he knows how they work........ All I can say is I'm glad I don't work for MEH right now.. I remember when the ATA guys thought the SWA deal was a better choice. SWA has basically gutted that company (the competition) and I have a feeling NWA will do the same with MEH.. MEH will not grow in MKE anymore, but you can bet your @ss NWA is going to.... Good luck MEH guys, I think the fat lady is warming up..

 

[CitationLover]

Good luck MEH guys, I think the fat lady is warming up..

they've been saying it for 23 years. SWA loaned ATA ALL of its financing, that isn't happening here.

you seem to really like JL, you voting yes for what he thinks you're worth?

 

[atafan]

SWA loaned ATA ALL of its financing, that isn't happening here.

I think you are not correct.

SWA paid for gates and was going to loan money and take some ownership. The real value to the ATA creditors was the codeshare agreement between ATA and SWA, Airtran just couldn't match. Matlin Patterson came up with ALL of the required money, SWA didn't retain any ownership and currently doesn't have any loans to ATA. SWA controls ATA's scheduled routes behind closed doors, in my opinion, without any real liabilities.

One rumor floating around ATA is that Herb co-operated in some capacity with the World board to help make the World/NAA/ATA merger happen.

 

[CitationLover]

I think you are not correct.

SWA paid for gates and was going to loan money and take some ownership. The real value to the ATA creditors was the codeshare agreement between ATA and SWA, Airtran just couldn't match. Matlin Patterson came up with ALL of the required money, SWA didn't retain any ownership and currently doesn't have any loans to ATA. SWA controls ATA's scheduled routes behind closed doors, in my opinion, without any real liabilities.

One rumor floating around ATA is that Herb co-operated in some capacity with the World board to help make the World/NAA/ATA merger happen.

i stand corrected. nwa is not buying any meh assets (ie gates) as far as i know in mke.

 

[gt1900]

Citation..... Your an Idiot.. The fat lady is singing at the top of her lungs.. MEH is getting bought out, most likely by NWA, so, "they" were right.. MEH isn't strong enough to fight off a takeover....The games over for MEH as it currently stands... Again, "they" were right... Now, the only question is, which of the two evils will the board approve... NWA which wiill never allow MEH to grow and that will eventually lead MEH into bankruptcy. NWA won't care because their only goal is to keep AAI out, not expand MEH and grow the company. NWA is never going to allow MEH to grow and compete against them.... Or, AAI who would make the Midwest name go away, but grow like hell out of MKE which would benefit the employees of MEH and the city of MKE..... ... As far as JL goes.. Hes a hell of a CEO, hes lead AAI through the roughest downturn in airline history and made money every year doing it while growing when everyone else was shrinking.. Plus, he didn't have a huge fuel hedge advantage while doing it.... As far as voting yes for what he thinks were worth.. You need to take any emotion out of it. Its not what he thinks were worth, its about what AAI thinks the pilots may pass as a new contract.. Its business... And no, I'm not voting for it... Im pretty happy making 100hrs of pay a month with weekends and 15 days off. They changed some things on the TA but not enough to make me vote for it.. But don't worry, your gonna be bought out by the company with possibly the worst leadership and employee relations in the industry.. Plus, their about to blow 400+ million on a junk deal, just to keep AAI out... Enjoy yourself over at MEH, that culture you love so much... Well, thats going to be gone as well...

 

[HalinTexas]

I think you are not correct.

SWA paid for gates and was going to loan money and take some ownership. The real value to the ATA creditors was the codeshare agreement between ATA and SWA, Airtran just couldn't match. Matlin Patterson came up with ALL of the required money, SWA didn't retain any ownership and currently doesn't have any loans to ATA. SWA controls ATA's scheduled routes behind closed doors, in my opinion, without any real liabilities.

One rumor floating around ATA is that Herb co-operated in some capacity with the World board to help make the World/NAA/ATA merger happen.

The "rumor" was started and circulated by the MEC to the membership. A member of the World Holdings BOD passed it on to our union leadership.

 

[GOULET!]

So gt1900 tell me this...if NWA wants MEH to completely go away so badly then why don't they just buy out Midwest instead of going through an equity firm? There is no way somebody is going to spend $450M just to let it wither away on the vine. Captial will be pumped into the company allowing the company to grow. Everybody keeps forgeting that AirTran is a way bigger threat to NWA than Midwest does even if Midwest were to double their operations. If there is any fat lady warming up here its for the end of the AirTran offer by the board.

 

[gt1900]

Goulet... NWA doesn't need or probably even want MEH to go away completly.... All they need to do is be able to #1 Keep MEH the way they are because they aren't a threat and #2. Keep AAI out because they are.. MEH won't be allowed to grow by and decent amount, maybe through RJ's, but thats it. You can be damn sure NWA won't allow MEH to grow in any way that affects NWA operations. So, I would be suprised if any capital is pumped into MEH at all.. All NWA is doing is keeping thier stronghold on the midwest and keeping AAI out. Remember, NWA doesn't need another hub right between MSP and DTW, but you can be sure they don't want anyone else who could threaten them to have a hub there either. If they purchases MEH they have kept AAI out, and also made it possible to control MEH's growth as to not compete with NWA's MSP or DTW hubs.. MEH might not go into bankruptcy, but you can bet they won't grow much either.. MEH is about to become NWA's pawn... And from the sounds of it. The city of Milwaukee, the MEH shareholders, and the employees of MEH might wanna think about who they would rather have purchasing thier company.. Hell, especially the pilots.. If NWA buys MEH, movement will stay the same, or slow at MEH, unlike if AAI purchases MEH...

 

[FIREMAN]

"There is no way somebody is going to spend $450M just to let it wither away on the vine."

If 450M saves them 1B in revenues from going to AAI over the next 5-10 years, then it is a great investment.
Do you really think NWA is looking at this deal to make money? NO, they are looking to preserve revenue from going to AAI. If Midwest dies in 2- 5 years and they get zero back but was able to keep AAI out then it was jest the coast of business.

 

[gt1900]

Exactly Fireman..... Thats the reason NWA won't stop the bidding war.. I think AAI is just bidding them up now...

 

[IdRtherBsailing]

Citation..... Your an Idiot.. The fat lady is singing at the top of her lungs.. MEH is getting bought out, most likely by NWA, so, "they" were right.. MEH isn't strong enough to fight off a takeover....The games over for MEH as it currently stands... Again, "they" were right... Now, the only question is, which of the two evils will the board approve... NWA which wiill never allow MEH to grow and that will eventually lead MEH into bankruptcy. NWA won't care because their only goal is to keep AAI out, not expand MEH and grow the company. NWA is never going to allow MEH to grow and compete against them.... Or, AAI who would make the Midwest name go away, but grow like hell out of MKE which would benefit the employees of MEH and the city of MKE..... ... As far as JL goes.. Hes a hell of a CEO, hes lead AAI through the roughest downturn in airline history and made money every year doing it while growing when everyone else was shrinking.. Plus, he didn't have a huge fuel hedge advantage while doing it.... As far as voting yes for what he thinks were worth.. You need to take any emotion out of it. Its not what he thinks were worth, its about what AAI thinks the pilots may pass as a new contract.. Its business... And no, I'm not voting for it... Im pretty happy making 100hrs of pay a month with weekends and 15 days off. They changed some things on the TA but not enough to make me vote for it.. But don't worry, your gonna be bought out by the company with possibly the worst leadership and employee relations in the industry.. Plus, their about to blow 400+ million on a junk deal, just to keep AAI out... Enjoy yourself over at MEH, that culture you love so much... Well, thats going to be gone as well...

This little guy is very entertaining. Reminds me of this quote.

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts...for support rather than illumination."
Andrew Lang (1844-1912)

 

[gt1900]

Idrather... Tell me I'm wrong.. MEH is getting bought out aren't they? They have to choose between the lesser of 2 evils now right.. NWA will have thier fingers ontop of whatever MEH tries to do correct... NWA buying MEH is a bad thing for MEH.. Its a good thing for Timmey Hoeksema, but not for anyone else.. IF you think NWA is going to allow MEH to grow and take revenue away from them your way, way off...

 

[IdRtherBsailing]

Idrather... Tell me I'm wrong..

O.K. Your Wrong..

I hate confrontation

 

[russtgol]

I dont understand how some of you can be so stupid... All NWA is doing is throwing money into the pot... They will have no say in what the company does... They are just an investor, thats all... They will have no say what goes on in the company... I just cant understand how stupid some of you are... So get your head out of your A&ses PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[gt1900]

Russtgol... You are wrong, they will have say in the company.. Maybe not directly, but if you don't think they won't have a say in what goes on you are sorely mistaken... Investors are the "owners" of the company, so yes, they have a say.. Just like current MEH shareholders pressured MEH into opening up talks with AAI and NWA... You might wanna read a business 101 book from any college bookstore..