Twotter76
Masterless Samurai
- Joined
- Nov 26, 2001
- Posts
- 697
gunfyter said:Say you are number 2300. About the current number of pilots on the list now.
Assume 2 captains for every 1 FO.
That puts the junior Captain at 67% down the seniority list which is exactly where the newest Captain award went. (mid 1500's out of 2300.)
#2300 will be at 67% when we have about 3500 pilots on the seniority list.
So all we need to do is hire 1200 more pilots. 1200 pilots at 5 pilots per plane is 240 planes.
So we need 1200 pilots and 240 MORE planes till #2300 upgrades.
I don't think we will get 240 more planes in 2.5 yrs.
Thats 8 aircraft deliveries per MONTH!
I agree with Gunfyter except for a few more points that need to be taken into account. Obviously atrrition is one but that has been covered. The most junior pilot awarded an upgrade on that last bid was #1541. There are currently 2300 or so pilots including new hires on the list. So some basic math shows 759 numbers between the two. This however is not entirely accurate as there are many inbetween those two numbers that have already upgraded so the actual number between a newhire and upgrade would be less than 759. That will be counterbalanced by some of the upgrade slots being taken by PICs switching fleets but they always open up a PIC slot when they leave too. What i'm trying to get across here is that it is very difficult to predict when it will happen for you and realistically if you come here you should plan on at least 4 years and be pleasantly suprised if it happens sooner.