NJA Upgrade Times

[9DRIVER]

Is there any significant amount of attrition from retirements or just leaving for something better?

 

[B +]

Say you are number 2300. About the current number of pilots on the list now.

Assume 2 captains for every 1 FO.

That puts the junior Captain at 67% down the seniority list which is exactly where the newest Captain award went. (mid 1500's out of 2300.)

#2300 will be at 67% when we have about 3500 pilots on the seniority list.

So all we need to do is hire 1200 more pilots. 1200 pilots at 5 pilots per plane is 240 planes.

So we need 1200 pilots and 240 MORE planes till #2300 upgrades.

I don't think we will get 240 more planes in 2.5 yrs.

You are not including the very important attrition factor in your calculations. When 100 pilots senior to you leave and 100 are hired to replace them you are no longer number 2300 but now number 2200. Now you need to see 3300 pilots on the list to be at 67%. That means only 200 new planes.

I don't think it unrealistic to expect more than 100 pilots out of the 2300 senior to a current new hire to leave in the next couple years. Quite likely it would be even more.

You just gotta beeeee positiveeee!

 

[gunfyter]

114 pilots senior to me have left in the last 7 years. And that includes time airlines were hiring like there was no tomorrow.

You might have to wait 7 years to move up 100 numbers.

I think its not responsible for someone from the company to tell new pilots they could upgrade in 2.5 yrs.

Don't listen to HR. They have no clue about what its like to be a pilot... waiting to upgrade.

 

[B +]

114 pilots senior to me have left in the last 7 years. And that includes time airlines were hiring like there was no tomorrow.

You might have to wait 7 years to move up 100 numbers.

I think its not responsible for someone from the company to tell new pilots they could upgrade in 2.5 yrs.

For many of the airlines they were correct, there is no tomorrow!

I thought there would be some getting cherry corporate jobs and others that were ex airline types retiring for age.

 

[Guitar Guy]

My friend upgraded a few months ago and he had only been at the company a year. I don't think that will happen again though

I'm in the same situation as your friend. I managed to take the company checkride on my one-year service anniversary last year. But upgrading in a year or less won't happen again in the near future. With essentially the end of bypass pay, those pilots who are on bypass pay will now find themselves having to upgrade at the first available slot in order to maximize their income or at the least, they'll have to upgrade at the first available slot in their current fleet in order to hang on to the bypass scale until upgrade.

No one knows for sure when upgrade will occur for a new-hire. My own unscientific SWAG is probably around 3.5 to 4.5 years for someone hired this month. Your mileage may vary...

 

[Twotter76]

Say you are number 2300. About the current number of pilots on the list now.

Assume 2 captains for every 1 FO.

That puts the junior Captain at 67% down the seniority list which is exactly where the newest Captain award went. (mid 1500's out of 2300.)

#2300 will be at 67% when we have about 3500 pilots on the seniority list.

So all we need to do is hire 1200 more pilots. 1200 pilots at 5 pilots per plane is 240 planes.

So we need 1200 pilots and 240 MORE planes till #2300 upgrades.

I don't think we will get 240 more planes in 2.5 yrs.

Thats 8 aircraft deliveries per MONTH!

I agree with Gunfyter except for a few more points that need to be taken into account. Obviously atrrition is one but that has been covered. The most junior pilot awarded an upgrade on that last bid was #1541. There are currently 2300 or so pilots including new hires on the list. So some basic math shows 759 numbers between the two. This however is not entirely accurate as there are many inbetween those two numbers that have already upgraded so the actual number between a newhire and upgrade would be less than 759. That will be counterbalanced by some of the upgrade slots being taken by PICs switching fleets but they always open up a PIC slot when they leave too. What i'm trying to get across here is that it is very difficult to predict when it will happen for you and realistically if you come here you should plan on at least 4 years and be pleasantly suprised if it happens sooner.

 

[Qwertyuiop]

Say you are number 2300. About the current number of pilots on the list now.

Assume 2 captains for every 1 FO.

That puts the junior Captain at 67% down the seniority list which is exactly where the newest Captain award went. (mid 1500's out of 2300.)

#2300 will be at 67% when we have about 3500 pilots on the seniority list.

So all we need to do is hire 1200 more pilots. 1200 pilots at 5 pilots per plane is 240 planes.

So we need 1200 pilots and 240 MORE planes till #2300 upgrades.

I don't think we will get 240 more planes in 2.5 yrs.

Thats 8 aircraft deliveries per MONTH!

I've heard estimates of at least 500 pilots to be hired this year. So 2.5 years to hire 1200 pilots is not that unrealistic.

My own guess for upgrade time for today's newhires would be 3 years plus or minus a year.

 

[Going2Baja]

Well if you look at any of the quality regionals like SkyWest or Horizon the upgrade is close to 4 years as well. And for all of us furloughees, upgrade time at a major is what.....life? Making close to $45k a year to pull gear sounds just fine to me. And in four years the pay would be an additional $5k. I also hear of a lot of $$$ being paid in grievances. Still doesn't sound like such a bad place to be. I guess if you have it REAL bad to have four stripes and call all the shots then it might be hard for you. I think all the new hires have some captain time in their past so just be patient. Tranquilo......

Baja.

 

[atr42flyer]

do they hire people with less time than what is stated on the website?

 

[SAEflyer]

do they hire people with less time than what is stated on the website?

No sir