NJ question

[illinipilot]

Don't count it as even a "theoretical possibility". Existing SIC's will want the increased pay and the "Falcon lifestyle" as they await for an upgrade that is now running 5.5 years and forecast to go up.

Not a super big deal but we ought to post accurate info. It actually looks like the upgrades are currently running just about 2 1/2 years. I will concede that those estimates look like they will go a lot longer pretty soon.

Cheers.

 

[hawk2wp]

It actually looks like the upgrades are currently running just about 2 1/2 years. I will concede that those estimates look like they will go a lot longer pretty soon.

What is the reason for the increase in time to upgrade?

 

[Guitar Guy]

Not a super big deal but we ought to post accurate info. It actually looks like the upgrades are currently running just about 2 1/2 years. I will concede that those estimates look like they will go a lot longer pretty soon.

Cheers.

That "5.5 years to upgrade" figure came straight from the MEC chairman at an IBB presentation just a few weeks ago. He also made the comment that he believed that the time to upgrade is going to increase some.

I know that some of the people upgrading now have been here at about the mark you mention however for someone getting hired right now or for someone hired within the past year or so, it's not going to be a 2.5-year upgrade. I believe DC's comment are about right on target. No one getting hired in the near future should come in with any illusion of upgrading in 30 months.

 

[Guitar Guy]

What is the reason for the increase in time to upgrade?

A lot of hiring is going on that is outpacing upgrades. Also, few of the senior guys are leaving. There was an interesting rumor that anywhere from 100 to 300 guys (depending on who you heard the rumor from) were going to leave after the last round of bonus payouts earlier this year for the 2005 contract but that hasn't materialized.

The company also shut down two fleets within the past year: the Hawker 1000 and the Citation VII. The PIC's took captain slots in other fleets and I believe most, if not all, of the SIC's in the retired fleets also moved to the left seat during the fleet reduction process. So that added some to the slowness of upgrades.

The company is supposed to have net growth of about 60 airframes in 2008 and 2009, so that should help. But it will still be a fairly long wait to upgrade for anyone getting hired in the near future. It won't be a 30-month upgrade.

 

[av8tor4239]

I will still make more money as a nj newhire than a 6 year captain at my current regional ASA *based on both companies new TA

 

[illinipilot]

Guitar Guy,

Dude, I totally agree with you that upgrades for those hired now are going to run a lot longer. To say that they are currently running at 5.5 years, though, is inaccurate.

No harm meant,
IP

 

[illinipilot]

BTW, I am totally frustrated with the amount of training slots at flightsafety. Currently this, I believe, is the biggest hinderance (sp?) to our growth as well as upgrades.

 

[Going2Baja]

Anyone have the proposed hourly wages for newhires and the 1st 5 years?

Baja.

 

[RP170]

I will still make more money as a nj newhire than a 6 year captain at my current regional ASA *based on both companies new TA

I hear ya. Someone was trying to question me on the regionals board as to why I left RAH since I would have upgraded right about now and now have to sit in the right seat at NJA for possibly 5 years. Some guys just don't get it I guess. To each their own.

I'll make more as a first year FO than I would have as a 3 yr captain flying the E170 at RAH, assuming the IBB passes.

 

[NJApilot]

As far as the time-to-upgrade is concerned: if I were a new-hire today, I would "plan" for 4-5 years as an F/O. It obviously may turn out to be less than this amount of time...and if so, great. But the general belief is that the upgrade time will lengthen (as it has over the last 18 months). Retirements and additional airframes to the overall fleet (both of which are fluid factors here at NJA) will play important roles.

One other important thing to keep in mind, too, is that if the TA passes, I would expect to see a number of current captains transitioning to other, more junior fleets in order to gain relative seniority for schedule and vacation bidding purposes. As many know, the TA, while improving F/O pay dramtically, also eliminates the higher pay for most of the larger aircraft (ie, the "aircraft class" pay structure). Those fleets where the MTOW is less than 40,000 LBS (90+% of our planes maybe?) will all pay the same -- and some of the current captains in these fleets will probably consider bidding to a smaller aircraft (improving their relative seniority) since the pay will be the same. There may come a point where the Sovereign, X, Hawker and G200 fleets become the junior captain equipment (rather than the 560, XL and 400XP).

On the flip-side, those transitioning captains will also be "vacating" a captain seat in their original fleets...so over time, in theory anyway, it may not have that big of an impact long-term if the company stays on top of keeping the fleets sufficently staffed. But you can expect, in the short-run, to see a lot of the initial captain bids go to existing captains.

The F/Os may not be too happy about this, but at least the F/O wage in the TA is livable.