New York Times-Peak Oil on the horizon?

[jetflyer]

Oil Supply Problems coming soon.
It's here, the entire 9,000 word New York Times article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/21/magazine/21OIL.html

The author interviews the current and past oil ministers of Saudi Arabia. He also interviews Matthew Simmons.

This is the first time "PEAK OIL" has been discussed by a major mainstream media outlet.

You don't have to run out of oil to have problems. You just have to have a plateau in the World oil production, to have serious problems with oil price.
If we have a decline in World Oil Production, then we're in big trouble. $66/barrel oil will then look cheap.

Jet

 

[h25b]

Oil Supply Problems coming soon.
It's here, the entire 9,000 word New York Times article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/21/magazine/21OIL.html

The author interviews the current and past oil ministers of Saudi Arabia. He also interviews Matthew Simmons.

This is the first time "PEAK OIL" has been discussed by a major mainstream media outlet.

You don't have to run out of oil to have problems. You just have to have a plateau in the World oil production, to have serious problems with oil price.
If we have a decline in World Oil Production, then we're in big trouble. $66/barrel oil will then look cheap.

Jet

Dear JetFlyer,

We get the point, please do us all a favor and give us a break... The fact that oil is a finite resource is not a new revelation and experts agree to disagree on when exactly we will run out (of the easy to find oil that is...).

Move on, you're beating a dead horse... Gee whiz, get a life.

 

[ironwedge]

This is the first time "PEAK OIL" has been discussed by a major mainstream media outlet.

Maybe under that the header "PEAK OIL" (which is just the name you'd expect from the mainstream media) as Hubbert's Peak Theory just isn't that sexy. Fact is, Hubbert's Theory and "PEAK OIL" are one in the same and have been discussed at least since the oil crisis of the 70's.

It IS good to see more awareness of this topic as it will impact every American at some point in the future. The current thinking is that by the time the average consumer realizes that the pumps are dry at the local filling station it will be MUCH too late to develop alternative sources at any cost.

Sucks to be us.

 

[Smoking Man]

I have a fear that peak oil will cause my chemtrail quota to fall short.

 

[General Lee]

Jetflyer,

Supply is NOT the problem, regardless of what your people say. We have a refining problem. Look at Valero and it's huge profits----why is that? Because they have cornered the market. There is only one new refinery coming up, and that is near Yuma, AZ. It won't be fully operational until 2010. Valero has also said that it has problems with all of the different types of blends it needs to make to comply with different States and their laws. That is the reason---no major supply problem. Iraq, Libya, and other countries are adding to the supply, and Exxon just put another huge driller in the Gulf of Mexico.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[miles otoole]

Jetflyer,

Supply is NOT the problem, regardless of what your people say. We have a refining problem. Look at Valero and it's huge profits----why is that? Because they have cornered the market. There is only one new refinery coming up, and that is near Yuma, AZ. It won't be fully operational until 2010. Valero has also said that it has problems with all of the different types of blends it needs to make to comply with different States and their laws. That is the reason---no major supply problem. Iraq, Libya, and other countries are adding to the supply, and Exxon just put another huge driller in the Gulf of Mexico.


Bye Bye--General Lee

I agree-But, California does has some pretty "clean" gas, FWIW.

 

[grinch]

That was a really good article. Indeed, it sucks to be us. Maybe if we ignore the problem it will just go away on its own. If that doesn't work then at least there are plenty of large-scale, easily-attained, high-energy, viable alternative-energy fuels for transportation. Oh wait, I was wrong about that. In fact, there aren't any at all. So sorry.

Can't change how much oil is produced in the world or how much other people consume so why worry about things you can't change? Nobody can prevent/delay peak oil. True large-scale conservation will only occur as a result of naturally rising prices from the normal supply and demand reaction...not as a result of conservation campaigns.

As for changing the way of life of most of the world...nobody wants to hear about it. It's better to pretend there's nothing to see here than to try to warn anybody about it.

 

[miles otoole]

That was a really good article. Indeed, it sucks to be us. Maybe if we ignore the problem it will just go away on its own. If that doesn't work then at least there are plenty of large-scale, easily-attained, high-energy, viable alternative-energy fuels for transportation. Oh wait, I was wrong about that. In fact, there aren't any at all. So sorry.

Can't change how much oil is produced in the world or how much other people consume so why worry about things you can't change? Nobody can prevent/delay peak oil. True large-scale conservation will only occur as a result of naturally rising prices from the normal supply and demand reaction...not as a result of conservation campaigns.

As for changing the way of life of most of the world...nobody wants to hear about it. It's better to pretend there's nothing to see here than to try to warn anybody about it.

No, just put on the General board.

 

[AA717driver]

Once again, the rest of the country is paying for the granola chompers' neuroses...

Let CA build their own refineries to refine their own "Evian" petrol. Let them build their own power plants and figure out how to produce power at the rates at which the people are being charged (below cost, that is...).

Hey AZ! I say shut off the water and let CA fend for itself!

Can we FORCE a state to seceed? TC

 

[General Lee]

You know what "Evian" spelled backwards is, right? Try it.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Widow's Son]

There is more liquid petroleum, low sulpher coal, and oil shale reserves in Southern Utah than all that ever existed between Texas and Oklahoma combined yet Clinton buried it (pun intended) in his last minute wilderness area declaration.

 

[enigma]

Yea, peak oil is upon us. But, the current price is more related to production problems in Russia, political problems in Venezuala (if memory serves) and the dropping US dollar.

Peak oil is just a red herring for the obscene profits being raked in by big oil. If they can convince us that the supply is limited, it is easier for them to convince us that we really aren't getting raped.

enigma

PS, yes oil is near it's peak. my second paragraph is somewhat the result of frustration about years of getting manipulated by the media/industrial complex.

 

[LAXSaabdude]

Actually read the whole article and found it to be a pretty balanced picture, no "end of the world" scenarios.

What I found particularly interesting was the fact that the Saudis want to control the production rate to target a "set price" that will maximize profits. Setting the price too high will result in an economic downturn and an eventual steep drop-off in price, like what happened with the Asian recession in the late 90s (oil at $10/bbl).

This really is an economic issue. Yes it would suck for all of us if the prices continue to rise, yes we REALLY need to work on alternatives in a BIG way, but if the economy starts to drag, so will the price of oil fall.

Like I keep saying, look at the Chinese. They are the largest growing oil consumers right now, because they are the growing economic producer. Why are they such prolific producers? Because they work cheap, and they live MUCH cheaper than we do in the U.S. If you think $2.50 gas hurts in the U.S., how much do you think it hurts someone making only a fraction of our wages?

It is no stretch of the imagination to think that the Chinese will curtail their oil consumption pretty quickly if prices continue to rise.

LAXSaabdude.

 

[duke600]

Do you realize that in europe people pay $5-6 per gallon?

I laugh when people complain about paying $2.60 a gallon

 

[LAXSaabdude]

Do you realize that in europe people pay $5-6 per gallon?

I laugh when people complain about paying $2.60 a gallon

It's mostly taxes. And when you look at the "bang for the buck" they get for what they pay, I wouldn't complain if I was in Europe, either. I was there a number of years ago, and I loved the fact that you could take a train, cheaply, anywhere, anytime. A car is almost not needed there. If our transportation system was structured the same way here, our overall costs to get around would still probably be cheaper, even with $6 gas.

LAXSaabdude.

 

[jetflyer]

Here are two articles on what is going on in China:

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/stdn/std/China/GH06Ad04.html

Guangdong drivers queue at the pumps

August 6, 2005

Surging demand for fuel in Guangdong has led to severe shortages of gasoline and diesel, prompting officials to impose rationing.

Many filling stations in Guangzhou are limiting each car or truck to adding 50 yuan (HK$48) worth of fuel, newspapers said. They said some stations were completely sold out and cheaper types of fuel were not available anywhere.

...

Photos in newspapers showed scores of taxis and cars lined up at filling stations in Guangzhou. Some drivers were pushing cars that had run dry.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4748665.stm

S China drivers face fuel famine

Petrol shortages are developing in Guangdong Province, the industrial belt that produces one third of China's manufacturing exports.

Drivers are reportedly having to queue for rationed petrol and shortages are hurting petrol station profits.

Refiners are also limiting output of some fuels in the face of soaring crude oil prices and domestic price caps, the official China Daily reported.

"I've seen business drop by around one third since I stopped being able to get 90 gasoline," a Guangdong petrol station manager called Liang told Reuters news agency. Ninety gasoline is a popular budget option.

Taxi drivers are suffering too. "You can barely find 90 anywhere", said driver Xiao Weisong. "How can we make a living like this?"

The Chinese government is causing SHORTAGES at the gas stations. The govt. is forcing the local gas stations to sell at DISCOUNTED RATES. They are instead selling the gas on the open market outside China, where they can make more money.

Eventually the price caps are going to have to be lifted. When they are, that is when the chinese consumer is really going to be hurt by the high costs.

Jet

 

[JimNtexas]

Here is a good debunking of the core "peak oil" arguments.

 

[jetflyer]

Three other good articles on China's oil problem:

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-08/19/content_470601.htm

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050816/china_fuel_shortages.html?.v=1

http://en1.chinabroadcast.cn/855/2005/08/19/192@10858.htm

Shanghai Not Hit by Fuel Shortage: Local Government

Shanghai has denied the city's fuel supply is in trouble. It comes amid growing concerns that the acute fuel shortage in southern China has spread to Shanghai and neighboring provinces. From Shanghai, CRI's Wang Jing has more.

Over the past week, many Shanghai drivers have found it is getting difficult to have their vehicles fueled. Some had to visit several gas stations before getting the gasoline they need.

But spokeswoman Jiao Yang of the municipal government has denied this is a sign of a fuel shortage.

"We are confident that the supply of gasoline is at normal levels."

Signs of supply shortages began surfacing earlier this month in southern China's Guangdong province.

In the southern city of Shenzhen, more than half of all gas stations closed this week as the situation worsened.

Media reports say the supply shortage has spread to east China provinces and to Shanghai.

Gasoline wholesale has been suspended in Shanghai's neighboring province Zhejiang.

Although the crisis is considered to be a result of disruptions to tanker traffic due to recent typhoons, analysts believe there are other reasons.

Yang Hong is an analyst with East China Oil Gas, a Shanghai-based website engaged in market information and analysis.

"The increase of domestic oil prices is far lower than international oil price increases. The fact that China is more dependent on imported crude oil drives up the cost to refineries. Their margins are falling when they sell their product domestically."

Retail prices of gasoline and diesel has been raised three times this year, but retail prices are still 40 percent lower than international crude.

But Yang Hong adds Shanghai as the country's financial hub, is unlikely to be hit by the crisis. He believes the government would fix the problem.

Shanghai government spokeswoman Jiao Yang says the government has strengthened its supervision and set up a pre-alarm system.

"We will pay special attention to the gas supplies going to buses, taxies, hospitals and other public facilities."

China's largest energy and chemicals company, Sinopec, earmarked an extra 25 thousand tons of gasoline for Shanghai by the end of July.

For Realtime Beijing, this is Wang Jing.

 

[LAXSaabdude]

The Chinese government is causing SHORTAGES at the gas stations. The govt. is forcing the local gas stations to sell at DISCOUNTED RATES. They are instead selling the gas on the open market outside China, where they can make more money.

Eventually the price caps are going to have to be lifted. When they are, that is when the chinese consumer is really going to be hurt by the high costs.

And Chinese consumption will drop precipitously, and prices will stabilize.

LAXSaabdude.

 

[jetflyer]

And Chinese consumption will drop precipitously, and prices will stabilize.

LAXSaabdude.

I think I speak for all of us when I say, "Let's hope"

I think Oil and energy in the near future, are going to be the most talked about items in our lives.

There are some good technologies out there in the works, that almost seem magical. They possibly could propel our aircraft and cars. They are nothing any of you would be familiar with. Tesla, inventor of DC power theorized this technology would be our number one source of energy one day. The technology is called "Zero Point Energy". There are about 12 companies working on getting this technology to market soon. The government has worked with ZPE since 1986, and Boeing is even trying to bring the technology to everyday use. There have been great breakthroughs in the last year or two, and one company in particular plans on having demonstration devices for the end of this year. Let's hope they succeed.


Jet