New Efforts To Protect Jobs In Wilmington

[Whistlin' Dan]

ABX will survive, but as a much smaller company...for now. Hete needs ABX for 2 reasons.

1) To maintain some downward pressure on the labor groups at his other carriers, and;

2) To show them what happens to Unions that get too big for their britches.

I don't see any "mergers" happening between ABX and Astar, because Astar no longer has anything to "merge." The only value the company had was it's business relationship with DHL Int'l, and now that it's over, what's left to barter? A Pt 121 certificate and some aircraft leases, most of which are about to expire anyway? A bunch of gas-guzzling, 3-pilot 727's? The desert is full of 'em. Anybody that wants Astar's can get 'em cheap at the auction.

R.I.P. DHL Airways/Astar. It was fun for a while...

 

[abxdx]

I did not want to say it Dan, but you are right. I do not agree with Hvy. A merger is not a good idea. I think the ABX pilots need to look long and hard at themselves and see things for what they are. They have the oppurtunity to save some of thier jobs doing charter work with the 767's, but need to significantly restructure thier contract.

ABX will survive, but as a much smaller company...for now. Hete needs ABX for 2 reasons.

1) To maintain some downward pressure on the labor groups at his other carriers, and;

2) To show them what happens to Unions that get too big for their britches.

I don't see any "mergers" happening between ABX and Astar, because Astar no longer has anything to "merge." The only value the company had was it's business relationship with DHL Int'l, and now that it's over, what's left to barter? A Pt 121 certificate and some aircraft leases, most of which are about to expire anyway? A bunch of gas-guzzling, 3-pilot 727's? The desert is full of 'em. Anybody that wants Astar's can get 'em cheap at the auction.

R.I.P. DHL Airways/Astar. It was fun for a while...

 

[hvydriver]

ABX will survive, but as a much smaller company...for now. Hete needs ABX for 2 reasons.

1) To maintain some downward pressure on the labor groups at his other carriers, and;

2) To show them what happens to Unions that get too big for their britches.

I don't see any "mergers" happening between ABX and Astar, because Astar no longer has anything to "merge." The only value the company had was it's business relationship with DHL Int'l, and now that it's over, what's left to barter? A Pt 121 certificate and some aircraft leases, most of which are about to expire anyway? A bunch of gas-guzzling, 3-pilot 727's? The desert is full of 'em. Anybody that wants Astar's can get 'em cheap at the auction.

R.I.P. DHL Airways/Astar. It was fun for a while...

Wrong. Stock is at 1.30. Earnings from DHL over 65% of revenues. Not enough cash flow if that biz is lost to continue operations on the ABX Air side. (I'm not lumping the other companies under the ATSG umbrella into this.) Unless of course, Hete pulls a rabbit out of his hat. Again, no ill will, but facts are facts. Both sides are hosed.

 

[abxdx]

Your opinion! I agree ASTAR is hosed they have nothing to offer. We'll see what happens with ABX. I hope it works out for them. I am moving on to bigger and better things.

Wrong. Stock is at 1.30. Earnings from DHL over 65% of revenues. Not enough cash flow if that biz is lost to continue operations on the ABX Air side. (I'm not lumping the other companies under the ATSG umbrella into this.) Unless of course, Hete pulls a rabbit out of his hat. Again, no ill will, but facts are facts. Both sides are hosed.

 

[hvydriver]

Your opinion! I agree ASTAR is hosed they have nothing to offer. We'll see what happens with ABX. I hope it works out for them. I am moving on to bigger and better things.

I hope I'm wrong too, abxdx. I've got buds over there. My calculator is pretty insistant, though. I hope it's off.

 

[nitefr8dog]

I hope I'm wrong too, abxdx. I've got buds over there. My calculator is pretty insistant, though. I hope it's off.

I would be suprised if Hete did not cut a deal with the state of Ohio to save jobs.

 

[Whistlin' Dan]

Wrong. Stock is at 1.30. Earnings from DHL over 65% of revenues. Not enough cash flow if that biz is lost to continue operations on the ABX Air side. (I'm not lumping the other companies under the ATSG umbrella into this.) Unless of course, Hete pulls a rabbit out of his hat.

Or some business out of his ATSG group...enough to keep ABX alive while he solicits new customers for his 767's. There's enough business out there to keep them busy. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me to see some of them going down to Louisville on contract even before they close Wilmington. UPS will need them to handle the increased loads as a result of this DHL mess.

The key to this whole thing will be their 767's. There's a reason Joe Hete cornered the market on them, and it's because they are to today's on-demand charter market what 727's were to it 20 years ago...reliable, supportable, and fuel-efficient. Unfortunately, 727's have dropped into the market niche that DC-6's held 20 years ago...ubiquitous, cheap to buy, expensive to operate, and increasingly unreliable.

The DC-8's have some future. My guess is that most of Astar's will be in Africa long before they turn the lights out in Wilmington.

Yes, there will be furloughs at ABX, but everbody knew those were coming anyway. And yes, they (ABX/Hete) will ask for concessions in the CBA, and they'll probably get them. But I see ABX surviving the imminent "sinking" of DHL, which is what Hete had in mind all along.

 

[abxaviator]

Wrong. Stock is at 1.30. Earnings from DHL over 65% of revenues. Not enough cash flow if that biz is lost to continue operations on the ABX Air side. (I'm not lumping the other companies under the ATSG umbrella into this.) Unless of course, Hete pulls a rabbit out of his hat. Again, no ill will, but facts are facts. Both sides are hosed.

Your cash flow numbers are historical, meaning with the 767's flying the very low margin DHL contract. As DHL releases those aircraft they can be deployed to the charter side, thus producing significantly improved cash flow.

I'm not saying it will be all rosy, likely only 20-30 ACMI 767's, perhaps less, 35 at best and a significantly restructured contract.

 

[shooter]

Your cash flow numbers are historical, meaning with the 767's flying the very low margin DHL contract. As DHL releases those aircraft they can be deployed to the charter side, thus producing significantly improved cash flow.

I'm not saying it will be all rosy, likely only 20-30 ACMI 767's, perhaps less, 35 at best and a significantly restructured contract.

I agree, but that 30 odd 767's doing ACMI work will come close to the 1.75% DHL contract. All is not bad with the ATSG numbers, it's the jobs that are hurting the most. Get the 767's running charters and you will see the numbers grow into a stronger company than we see today. Good luck to those that are able to stay and don't forget us little guys that will be on the street.

 

[penguin22]

Or some business out of his ATSG group...enough to keep ABX alive while he solicits new customers for his 767's. There's enough business out there to keep them busy. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me to see some of them going down to Louisville on contract even before they close Wilmington. UPS will need them to handle the increased loads as a result of this DHL mess.

The key to this whole thing will be their 767's. There's a reason Joe Hete cornered the market on them, and it's because they are to today's on-demand charter market what 727's were to it 20 years ago...reliable, supportable, and fuel-efficient. Unfortunately, 727's have dropped into the market niche that DC-6's held 20 years ago...ubiquitous, cheap to buy, expensive to operate, and increasingly unreliable.

The DC-8's have some future. My guess is that most of Astar's will be in Africa long before they turn the lights out in Wilmington.

Yes, there will be furloughs at ABX, but everbody knew those were coming anyway. And yes, they (ABX/Hete) will ask for concessions in the CBA, and they'll probably get them. But I see ABX surviving the imminent "sinking" of DHL, which is what Hete had in mind all along.

I gotta hand to you, Dan. You called this DHL/UPS thing correctly a long time ago