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Merger Speculations

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hotwing said:
[Continental] Merger with Delta: Their fleets mix fairly well, but there aren't appealing network pairings here because both carriers still don't get to Asia other than through their Northwest alliance connections.

What? Doesn't CAL fly Norita and Hong Kong from Newark, maybe Houston too. And they have HUB for crying out loud in Guam.
 
Phaedrus said:
I think Chuck would be disappointed that the AirTran/MidEx merger wasn't mentioned in that article:)

From what I've heard, this is the most likely possibility.

Anther possiblility is a purchase of Hawaiian for their 717's.

mach none said:
I think Alaska will buy someone in the near future. Aloha? Frontier? A merger with southwest would be very interesting, but I doubt it.

I doubt that Alaska would buy Frontier. To begin with, the fleet types are completely different and not much would be gained from buying another airline that is focused mostly on the West coast. I also think it's very unlikely that SWA would buy Alaska. Alaska is not a huge threat to SWA though it's feasible that SWA could be interested in their subsidized routes in the state of Alaska.

Speaking of Alaska Airlines, another likely merger candidate for AirTran is Alaska. Currently AAI's market cap is approximately 50% higher than Alaska's. Additionally, AAI is preparing several hundred million dollars worth of additional stock offerings. If this merger were to occur, it would probably happen in much the same way as the HP/US Air merger with outside investors and probably Boeing in this case playing a major role in the financing. The synergies of this merger seem like they would be very attractive to ouside investors: two very complementary route structures, two very similar fleet types and almost identical fleet sizes, and two similar pay-scales. It would immediately become a 200-plus aircraft airline with a major national presence that would provide a significant threat to SWA. Within just a few years it would grow to approximately 400 airplanes if both companies excercised all of the options currently on their books. It would have the potential to become the dominant domestic airline.

The drawback to this deal is that both Alaska and AirTran want very badly to be the surviving carrier. It may be very difficult to work through that issue.
 

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