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MDW - the prize

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lowecur

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 14, 2003
Posts
2,317
Think there are just a few airlines looking at the deteriorating situation over at ATA? Those numerous gates and lack of expansion possibilities in Chicago, have a few route planners for other airlines salivating at the thought.

Because of the short runways, I get the feeling the A320 may not be a viable aircraft for MDW. Makes you wonder if the 319 would also be in that catagory, thus leaving out quite a few carriers as suitors.
 
lowecur said:

Because of the short runways, I get the feeling the A320 may not be a viable aircraft for MDW. Makes you wonder if the 319 would also be in that catagory, thus leaving out quite a few carriers as suitors.

Right, and 727's have never taken off and landed there. DOH!
 
Lowecur,

Frontier operates both the 318 and 319 into Midway. No problems at all. Midway is not all that short at 6522 feet for 31C/13C and 6446 feet for 4R/22L at 620ft above sea level.

It is just very unforgiving if you don't clear the fences at the end.
 
ruddersmog

ruddersmog said:
Lowecur, I'm just going to tell you this once....

Stay off the drugs.
Apparently, I'm not the only one who thinks ATA's future is not too bright. This was quoted from Planebusinessbanter - Holly Hedgeman

ATA

The size of the airline's recent earnings loss was stunning. There is not much cash here. There are too many large airplanes. There is some pie-in-the-sky dream about flying trans-Atlantic. Many passengers are not even aware of the positive changes to their product. Costs are killing them. The competition on trans-con routes has been especially telling on ATA.

Again, the issue here is resources. I don't believe the airline has the resources to see it through much longer than the next two quarters, unless it can dramatically turn something around.

This will not be a happy summer for the folks in Indianapolis.
 
chewbaka

cbeyw said:
lowecur......Get a brain...please!
Put your sail up skipper, with all that hot air you can make to the next port.:D ;)
 
quoted from Planebusinessbanter - Holly Hedgeman
Who has never been able to find two good things to say about ATA. I'm really starting to think she owns stock in our competition . . .

We've certainly got issues and problems here at ATA, and I want to see them addressed - but I'd rather be here than at US right now . . .
 
I have a lot of friends at ATA, I hope things improve and ATA survives and expands in the future.... GOOD LUCK to us all!!!
 
I put lowecur on my ignore list a good while back and it is hilarious reading posts in response to lowecur without seeing what he has said. Everyone should try it. And I do mean everyone.

SWAdude:cool:
 
SWAdudu

SWAdudu said:
I put lowecur on my ignore list a good while back and it is hilarious reading posts in response to lowecur without seeing what he has said. Everyone should try it. And I do mean everyone.

SWAdude:cool:
So how'd you happen to read the thread?:D :D ;)
 
Lowecur doesn't have any facts or hard info to back up what he is saying so I take it as his own ramblings of what he "thinks" he knows. ATA is currently expanding to full capacity at MDW and is the number one carrier there. Unless ATA goes Chapter 7 then nobody is gonna take anything there, even Jetblue said they would leave Midway alone to ATA and Southwest. As far as ATA situation, The first quarter had 2 big one time charges associated with debt maturity and unexpected bonds payments that couldn't be refinanced, these 2 accounted for about $40some million. Then the transcon took a big hit with about a $14 million dollar loss, leaving the rest 8 million to operating loss.
So with ATA pulling out of the transcon stuff had 2 good effects, one those certain losses will no longer happen, second CAL (the biggest competitor with that flying) has jacked up their ticket prices when ATA left so now people will pay less to fly on ATA to the west coast and back even though they stop in MDW. This was shown in the increased load factors/bookings for March and April on these routes.
For the future, well sounds like the 717 or emb190 are coming, Around May 19th the pilot TA should be out to vote on regarding 2 issues, a pay freeze, and New A/C pay rates. We will know more then. The 2nd quarter will be profitable and the 3rd should be as well. Since I do have some "facts" to share about Midway and ATA, they are posted below and are from the ATA emp website.


Our market share in Midway continues to improve, with ATA and ATA Connection accounting for 49.2 percent of total boardings in January and 48.5 percent in February. Southwest boarded fewer than 38 percent in both months. Boardings for all airlines in MDW were up 12 percent in February, as compared to ORD at 4.5 percent. With MDW's continued dramatic growth, over 33 percent of all origin/destination Chicago passengers used MDW in 2003.
 
Last edited:
jettypeguy

Wishing you and yours only the best. You can't just talk about the good news, you need to talk about all the news. You can only keep crazy Uncle Arthur in the cellar for so long, and you can only sweep so much dirt under the carpet. Everything needs to be discussed on these boards - good or bad. Here's some more info(facts)

ATA

For the quarter, the airline reported a loss of $64.3 million, or $5.47 a share. This compared to a loss of $10.9 million, or 97 cents a share for the same period in 2003.

The numbers here did not look good no matter how you looked at them.

While operating revenue at the airline was up 3.7%, operating expenses were up a whopping 10.1%. While the airline reported a small operating profit for the quarter last year of $1.5 million, this year the airline posted a $22.4 million operating loss.

The airline saw its load factor drop back 2.8 points to 67%, down from 69.8%, as scheduled available seat miles were up 19.5%, while revenue passenger miles only increased 14.7%.

Yield for the airline's scheduled service was down 1.3% to 9 cents/mile, while scheduled service RASM was down 5.2% to 6.03 cents/mile. That's an ouch.

But here's the bigger ouch. CASM at the airline was up 4.3% to 7.34 cents/mile.

Speaking of costs, the airline did post a $27 million charge that was related to the restructuring of its bond debt that occurred in January. This agreement staved off a bankruptcy filing at that time. The debt restructuring gives ATA four more years to pay off more than $300 million in debt that was due this year, freeing up $142.4 million in 2004. At the same time, the airline restructured aircraft leases that cut ATA's cash outlay this year by another $99.4 million.

The airline was also hurt by higher fuel costs as fuel and oil costs rose nearly 10% at the airline, year over year, to $82.3 million.

The airline also said in its call last week that it has now postponed pay increases this year and next year for all pilots and cabin crew at the airline.

ATA said on April 29 it was exploring buying 100-seat aircraft such as the Boeing 717 or Embraer 190 to fill a niche in a fleet heavy on bigger jets and smaller turboprops. ATA said it was discussing the changes with unions representing its pilots and flight attendants, and the company's news release included statements of support for the move from representatives of both unions.

I think ATA has more than one problem. One, it has airplanes that are too big -- all those Boeing 757s that it ordered. Yes, it needs some smaller aircraft.

Two, the airline continues, I think, to suffer from an image problem. Folks who I have talked to who have flown the airline recently have been pretty happy with the experience. The airline has roomy seat pitch, and from what I understand the on-board experience is pretty good -- and value priced.

But unfortunately, I don't think a lot of passengers out there know this. The airline does suffer, I believe, from that "cattle car" image that the airline did indeed live up to in the past. And let's face it, the airline is bereft of any compelling advertising or marketing that would inform the world otherwise.

The ATSB loan and the debt restructuring gave the airline just a bit of breathing room. But goodness, with these types of losses, that breathing room is going to go away here in no short order.
 
Obviously MDW has enough runway for pretty much any mid size jet to operate out of. As for ATA, I think they are a great bunch of folks. I jumpseated on them to Phoenix when based at MDW and they were very kind and personable. I don't know about all their costs and problems, I think they simply need to advertize a lot more to get their name in lights. But with the need to control spending, that budget might not be too large. Hope they can turn things around. Newer, more efficient 73s and 75s versus the 72s and L1011s should help, but will take a while to impact the bottom line.
 
The airline also said in its call last week that it has now postponed pay increases this year and next year for all pilots and cabin crew at the airline.

What? Who spewed out this crap. The pilots of ATA are represented by ALPA and we work under contract. The company CANNOT modify this contract at will. We have NOT voted on anything yet because we don't even have a concessionary TA to VOTE ON! The company and union are still meeting and won't conclude until tomorrow. The MEC won't talk to the membership until Wednesday. I wouldn't expect a vote until the week after at the soonest. I know ATA did not tell anyone that the pilot wages were frozen YET. So where does the analyst get his info. and if this is wrong then how much else of his article is wrong.

Lowecur what is your major axe to grind with ATA? Yes we have some problems right now but management is being proactive and trying to find a solution before it gets critical in a few years. We are under no circumstances going to go Ch.7 in two quarters.
 
Frontier operates both the 318 and 319 into Midway. No problems at all. Midway is not all that short at 6522 feet for 31C/13C and 6446 feet for 4R/22L at 620ft above sea level

Not to be picky but Midway can get short. You failed to mention that there are displaced thresholds on all runways making them much shorter. This can really come into play when it starts to rain.

31c 5826' landing
 
mach zero said:
Lowecur what is your major axe to grind with ATA? Yes we have some problems right now but management is being proactive and trying to find a solution before it gets critical in a few years. We are under no circumstances going to go Ch.7 in two quarters.
First of all, I have no axe to grind with ATA, and I'm sure your mgt is doing all it can to right a listing ship. You are the only one that said the company will go 7 in two quarters. The author of the statement I'm sure was insinuating 11.

As I understand it you have about $100M in unrestricted cash. Please correct me if I'm wrong. You had a casm that was increasing with the transcons in the 1st Q. If the transcons are no more, then the casm will probably continue to go up simultaneous with a rasm increase in the 2nd Q. Add to that the continued rise in fuel, and the second and third Q don't look great. The $64M question is when will the unrestricted cash reach a critical level? Believe me I hope the company comes up with a solution, but time is a factor.
 
Bandit60 said:
Not to be picky but Midway can get short.

And to think, you've never even done a Flaps 25, bleeds off take off in a B727 out of MDW !! Short indeed, but certainly not a problem for most modern mid-size airliners. West Coast is tough in Summer but not impossible, or unmanageable. ;)


Oh, and BTW, our CASM is still lower than SWA's -- and nearly everybody else for that matter.
 
lowecur said:
First of all, I have no axe to grind with ATA, and I'm sure your mgt is doing all it can to right a listing ship. You are the only one that said the company will go 7 in two quarters. The author of the statement I'm sure was insinuating 11.

As I understand it you have about $100M in unrestricted cash. Please correct me if I'm wrong. You had a casm that was increasing with the transcons in the 1st Q. If the transcons are no more, then the casm will probably continue to go up simultaneous with a rasm increase in the 2nd Q. Add to that the continued rise in fuel, and the second and third Q don't look great. The $64M question is when will the unrestricted cash reach a critical level? Believe me I hope the company comes up with a solution, but time is a factor.

I think that the loss of the transcons will be offset by other long routes that are starting this summer (LGA-PIE and increases in the flying from Florida to SJU). Additionally, the so called "pie in the sky" transatlantic flying will begin next year. Unlike what Holly Hedgemen thinks, the entry of an ATA into the overseas markets has been well thoughtout and planned by mgmnt. We have been crossing oceans for 31 years at this company and are well versed in how to do it and the associated costs. George was just waiting for the right time to offer the product to the masses. You will find lots of analysts out there who agree that LCC's will expand into and be successful in this flying.

From lowecur's original post:

Think there are just a few airlines looking at the deteriorating situation over at ATA? Those numerous gates and lack of expansion possibilities in Chicago, have a few route planners for other airlines salivating at the thought.

So what gives lowecur? Are you enjoying watching others "salivate" over our perceived "deteriorating situation" so much you feel that it is necessary to put it on this board?

BTW where do you work? I'm sure everything is just rosy there.
 

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