major's hiring future

[GlenQ]

I know a lot of regional guys are going after quick upgrades trying to build PIC time to move on to a major or something, and I know the majors are starting to hire again and some of these regional guys might be getting PIC time at a good time...this got me thinking; for those of us that won't be upgrading for another 4 years or more because we're at places like PDT, AWAC or Eagle, what are our chances of getting on with a major, or will we most likely be stuck at our respective regional for a long, long time?
How long will these majors be hiring for, or will our upgrades come too late?
Any thoughts?



(sorry if this is repetitive, I also posted it in the 'regionals' section)

 

[taxicabdriver]

I would guess the hiring would continue for several years, or until age 65 happens

 

[Freight Dog]

It will only matter if you're trying to get on at UPS, Fedex, SWA, Airtran, Alaska. Those companies have specified turbine PIC time, or in case of Airtran, they have 121 PIC time.

Interestingly enough, I left a DHC-8 captain job after 250 hours in the left seat because I got my current job flying 737's. I have a couple thousand hours in a 737, yet I'm not qualified for SWA or Alaska because I don't have 1000 turbine PIC. Funny how that works, isn't it?

What's even more important if you're into the whole legacy airline thing is that you need to know people there or else you won't have much of a chance getting in. CAL would rather give a chance to a 1500 hour PFT wonder kid from GIA that someone knows rather than a 5000 hour CRJ captain who just doesn't happen to know anyone at CAL.

Bottom line... network, network, network.

 

[~~~^~~~]

There are several reasons why models that worked in the past do not apply any more.

(1) The Flight Engineer slot is gone. Ask around why FedEx does not plan on hiring for 18 to 24 months.
(2) More than half of major airlines' domestic flying is performed by alter ego carriers like PDT, AWAC or Eagle. At Delta, 49% of total system block hours are flown by non-Delta pilots. The Delta list went from 11,400 to around 6,700.
(3) Mainline pilots are getting outsourced, in house. Just look at NorthWest's replacement of the DC-9's at Compass.

Taken as a whole, the percentage of mainline jobs just does not exist any more. At least half the jobs are not coming back.

A job at a Major is still a good job worth aspiring to. But half the jobs are not at a major. Our profession has to focus on fixing this alter ego problem and raising the level of everyone who calls themselves "professional pilots."

The numbers really tell the story. I don't know if the upgrades come too late. I think the folks getting in right now will be OK, but the window of opportunity will start to close in 18 to 24 months then remain relatively stagnant due to age 65 pushing everything back a half a decade. In the event of mergers all bets are off.

 

[jmreii]

It will only matter if you're trying to get on at UPS, Fedex, SWA, Airtran, Alaska. Those companies have specified turbine PIC time, or in case of Airtran, they have 121 PIC time.

Interestingly enough, I left a DHC-8 captain job after 250 hours in the left seat because I got my current job flying 737's. I have a couple thousand hours in a 737, yet I'm not qualified for SWA or Alaska because I don't have 1000 turbine PIC. Funny how that works, isn't it?

What's even more important if you're into the whole legacy airline thing is that you need to know people there or else you won't have much of a chance getting in. CAL would rather give a chance to a 1500 hour PFT wonder kid from GIA that someone knows rather than a 5000 hour CRJ captain who just doesn't happen to know anyone at CAL.

Bottom line... network, network, network.

Freight dog is right, you are better off knowing people at the legacy carriers since those carriers love the warm fuzzy feeling of bonding with your fellow employee.

 

[Midnight Flyer]

Interestingly enough, I left a DHC-8 captain job after 250 hours in the left seat because I got my current job flying 737's. I have a couple thousand hours in a 737, yet I'm not qualified for SWA or Alaska because I don't have 1000 turbine PIC.

turbine PIC is turbine PIC. why didn't you stay at your dhc8 job and get your 1000 hours there, then apply at the companies that require 1000 turbine PIC?
dhc-pic time is worth more than 737 f/o time anyday.

 

[AA717driver]

turbine PIC is turbine PIC. why didn't you stay at your dhc8 job and get your 1000 hours there, then apply at the companies that require 1000 turbine PIC?
dhc-pic time is worth more than 737 f/o time anyday.

Because, apparently, his crystal ball isn't as good as yours...

If you have the chance to bail from a Dash job to fly a 737 at a good carrier, you don't pass it up (unless you're a moron). TC

 

[Freight Dog]

turbine PIC is turbine PIC. why didn't you stay at your dhc8 job and get your 1000 hours there, then apply at the companies that require 1000 turbine PIC?
dhc-pic time is worth more than 737 f/o time anyday.

Would you leave a DHC-8 captain gig to fly a 737 at an airline that paid industry standard pay, was expanding, industry-leading work rules, some of the best retirement packages in the industry at the time?

I did.

... and then we went into bankruptcy just as I was about to enter my 3rd year. The rest is history.

Hindsight is ALWAYS 20/20.

 

[FurloughedAgain]

Don't feel bad. You only cracked your crystal ball. I drove over mine with a monster truck.

I left Chautauqua as a J31 F/O to go to AirTran and fly the DC9 (before they required any PIC time. In 1998 you wouldn't believe how many CCAir J31 F/Os they hired...)

AirTran furloughed me so I went back to Chautauqua at the bottom of the list as a SF340 F/O.

Got hired at USAirways in 99 because they didn't require any kind of turbine PIC.

Got furloughed in March of 02. After having flown the DC9 and 737-300/400 (by the way, I got my 737 type the old fashioned way -- actually flew for a company that had them! Didn't buy the $10,000 lottery ticket) for over 3 years... still wasn't qualified to even apply at SWA.

J4J hadn't started up yet, so I went and flew the D328 prop as a copilot. They started grumbling about furloughs so I freaked out and went to Comair as a CRJ F/O. At the end of 2003 and I had almost 8000 hours TT but not a single hour of PIC turbine.

So freight-dog, don't feel like you're the only one who made that decision. A lot of us did. You can only make the best decision you can with the information you have available at the time. In the mid-90s when I was at the commuters only FedEx and SWA had the PIC turbine requirement. Who would have guessed that they would change the rules in the middle of the game!?

Good luck to the Generation Y airline pilots. Hope you have better luck than I did.

 

[HalinTexas]

Don't feel bad. You only cracked your crystal ball. I drove over mine with a monster truck.

I left Chautauqua as a J31 F/O to go to AirTran and fly the DC9 (before they required any PIC time. In 1998 you wouldn't believe how many CCAir J31 F/Os they hired...)

AirTran furloughed me so I went back to Chautauqua at the bottom of the list as a SF340 F/O.

Got hired at USAirways in 99 because they didn't require any kind of turbine PIC.

Got furloughed in March of 02. After having flown the DC9 and 737-300/400 (by the way, I got my 737 type the old fashioned way -- actually flew for a company that had them! Didn't buy the $10,000 lottery ticket) for over 3 years... still wasn't qualified to even apply at SWA.

J4J hadn't started up yet, so I went and flew the D328 prop as a copilot. They started grumbling about furloughs so I freaked out and went to Comair as a CRJ F/O. At the end of 2003 and I had almost 8000 hours TT but not a single hour of PIC turbine.

So freight-dog, don't feel like you're the only one who made that decision. A lot of us did. You can only make the best decision you can with the information you have available at the time. In the mid-90s when I was at the commuters only FedEx and SWA had the PIC turbine requirement. Who would have guessed that they would change the rules in the middle of the game!?

Good luck to the Generation Y airline pilots. Hope you have better luck than I did.

Airtran furloughed? Was this the old Manatee/Airtran or the former Critter/Airtran? How long were you out? Could you have taken a recall?

Just asking. I turned CritterTran down in May of '98. Wasn't a good fit for me, but I often wonder about the "paths not taken." Life has a funny way about it.