Majors and $

[daddysquared]

Hey folks,

I gotta admit I am a little worried about what I may have gotten myself into. I am looking for a little insight from all ya'll with experience.

So, with the industry in the tank right now, the question of what a pilot is worth seems to be all over the place. All these cost cutting initiatives that the airlines are coming up with seem pretty painful to the pilot, i.e., United cutting 30% of pilot pay, et. al. I made a career change, or rather, am in the process of making the attempt, and in the process have racked up close to $40,000 in debt for schooling etc. Just got the commercial ticket and multi rating. That amount of debt could be up in the $55,000 range when all is said and done (CFI, CFII, MEI, ATP, etc. etc.). Certainly my concern is this, am I getting this far into debt just to make $50,000 a year?

I have an Uncle that flew 747s for CAL with something like 25 years of tenure so I figure he was doing all right financially, until he went on strike and got the boot back in the 80's? (Please forgive the timing mistake if I have erred?) He and, what 90% of the pilot force at that time got let go and had nothing. (Again, I could be way off on the numbers, please forgive.)

What I am trying to get to with all my babble is this, What is a pilot at a major worth? And.....What can I expect as a possiblilty when all this is said and done with. I come from a pretty humble background and if I were able to bring in $120K per year, I would be pretty happy. Again, I admit I am pretty naive about the whole thing and am looking for enlightenment.

Thanks for your time.

 

[Vladimir Lenin]

sux to be you buddy, may wanna re-finance and go back to the comfort of Excel spreadsheets and watercoolers

(oh, and for out Canadian brethren, Air Canada just filed for protection against creditors)

on a serious note, use the fawkin search

 

[daddysquared]

Thanks

Now, that was helpful. Thanks Xtremedog.

 

[WrightAvia]

Just before he passed away, my dad said

"Be careful son, that thing is LOADED!"

But anyway, what i think that early dude was saying... the market is going to be tight for a long time. Lots of people are trapped in this and it will be a long time before it gets straightened out.


Good luck dude.

 

[daddysquared]

Thanks

Thanks a bunch Wright. So, what are wide body left seaters worth? $100K? $150K? $200K?

 

[de727ups]

The business...

It's a crazy job with no guarantees. I think six figures can be had at a lot of the regionals if you stick around a while...but it's going to be a long time to get there....I'd say at least 10 or more years and a lot of sacrifice. For a young guy who really loves flying, I think it's way worth it....for an older guy who is in it for the money...I say this is a bad time. I'm not saying you fit the latter catagory, don't get me wrong, you have to decide that for yourself. If you need to make six figures in less than 10 years...I'd say forget it.

 

[Flic1]

It would be different if you jumped right into a $150k/yr job after flight training but you still have to sacrifice many years at the bottom living on poverty wages. It's an unfortunate but true fact. It may be tough paying off that loan making less than $15k/yr instructing. I used to encourage people to get into aviation for a career if that's what they love, but I honestly can't do that anymore. I wish you the best of luck in your decisions.

I'm not sure what an airline pilot "should" make, but in the future I can guarantee the pay will be less than they are worth.

 

[Speedtree]

Tough Call

I've been flying professionally since '96 when I graduated college. Instructed for 3 years, averaged about $12,000 per year. I was single then.

Got a corporate job that paid decent but also got married and started paying off student loans. There went any extra money.

Now I work for one of the best regionals in the country as a first officer trying to support a kid, wife, and a house note as well as those student loans I couldn't pay while instructing. Almost living on credit cards but for the blessing of God. If United hangs in there my life could be real good in a year or two. If United folds or my company gets underbid by some low paying shoestring outfit I could be out of a job next month.

I can say that the industry is cyclical and I wouldn't be suprised to see everything going gangbusters in a few years with all of this behind us. Who knows. When I started college everyone said aviation was a bad job to have as the airlines were doing so poor. By the time I was instructing things were jumping.

I can also agree with the above poster that I wouldn't reccommend this career to just anyone and you have to be willing to put up with the cons as well as the pros.

In many ways you roll the dice much like you do in any profession I imagine. The people at Enron probably thought they had it pretty good right up until the end. I think lawyers must be about the only profession making any guaranteed money. There are never any shortages of people willing to sue.

Good luck to you. Keep asking questions.

 

[typhoonpilot]

Daddy:

This situation is much worse than 1990/91. That economic downturn took the airlines about five years to recover from and the hiring at the major level started between 1994 and 1996 or later for some like USAirways. That resulted in stagnation at the commuters with guys flying F.O. for 5 years or more. This time it has happened in a slightly different manner with the majors outsourcing their flying to the regionals and allowing unprecedented growth at the regionals. That growth is coming to a screeching halt with the war and now the majors are furloughing thousands more with some regionals starting to furlough as well.

I told the early USAirways furloughees that they might get recalled in ten years, if the company is still around. I stick to that prediction. All one has to do is the math of retirements versus pilot group size. It looks as if American, United, and Delta are going to be in that same range as they continue to furlough. The result will be an unprecedented stagnation at the regionals with the likelyhood of ten year F.O.s very real.

So what can you do ? Obviously going the traditional route of Flight instructor, regional pilot, and finally major airline pilot is going to be long and lacking in monetary reward. You would have to look to those older than me for advice because the last time it was like this was the early 70s. My brother who fits in that category didn't get hired by an airline in the States until he was 35 and they ended up being bought by American. Now he is a senior 767 Captain. So there is still hope but you really have to work hard to be in the right place at the right time and take some chances on dodgy fly by night cargo airlines and non-sched operators to get the experience to be at the head of the queue in 2010 when the hiring starts again.

To answer the pay question, jetBlue captains are around $120,000 per annum. Southwest a little higher and those figures are what the major narrow body drivers are rapidly coming down to. Don't ever think you'll fly a widebody in the States for a major unless you are still under 25 years old. That way you won't get disappointed when it doesn't happen.

Typhoonpilot

 

[daddysquared]

I really appreciate the wisdom and insight that you folks have afforded me here (except for the extremebag, of course). I'm no stranger to hard work. Been doing it since I was 12. (Too bad I didn't start flying back then, haha.) With the picture that has been painted about the future of the industry, some folks might think I were a little touched in the head to pursue it. It sure is a good thing that I would much rather make $20K-$40K working in cockpit for a few years and struggle, as opposed to making $40K-$60K working behind a desk. I've done the desk thing, made decent money doing that, and kept looking out the window at the sky and the airplanes flying by. Ha!, didn't mean to throw in a rhyme there. Thanks, gentlemen.

 

[ceo_of_the_sofa]

some folks might think I were a little touched in the head to pursue it

A little? Get out while you can, Doolitle

 

[Timebuilder]

I think you've got it.

If you aren't happy with the money, and that is starting to go away, then you had better be happy with the flying. If that's the case, you'll be okay.

 

[atis whiskey]

I believe the airline industry as far as pilot hiring is concerned will flourish in 2-3 years. There are two major factors to consider. The first one is fairly obvious and it deals with pilot retirements. It is inevitable and is a factor that will not change. I know that it will not spark any new hiring at the majors but, it will hopefully get some or hopefully most off of furlough. The second factor deals with the mainlines sending many of their old md-80/737 routes to the regionals. If you do the simple math involved, it is very obvious. The old mainline routes would take an md-80 to an average sized city 3 times a day with 130 seats onboard. Now the regionals have taken over that route with a frequency of 5-6 times a day having 50-70 seats onboard. Let's not forget that it still takes two pilots to fly an RJ just like it takes two pilots to fly an md-80. If you double the number of flight hours needed to carry the same number of seats, then logic would tell you that you would need to double the number of pilots or thereabout.
Everybody, this is only a theory but I think there is some validity to it so please comment............Good or Bad!

 

[JohnDoe]

"I believe the airline industry as far as pilot hiring is concerned will flourish in 2-3 years. "


That statement is living in a "dreamworld", especially with regards to pilot retirements.

There are nowhere near enough pilot retirements to recall the thousands and thousands of furloughed pilots within the next 2-3 years, let alone the next 3-4. Especially considering most of the majors are still furloughing and shrinking.



I'll echo what Timebuilder said.....you had better be happy with the simple fact of having a flying job, 'cause the money and workrules are rapidly disappearing (even regionals are asking for concessions now...).

 

[Palerider957]

Atis Whiskey:

Good thought, but the regioals wold probably just make us fly more legs in a given day But that's OK. The major pilots would NEVER fly the kinds of legs we fly in a day, nor work for our pay rates.

An earlier post is correct, you can eventually make a decent living at the regionals (of course it depends on which regional you get hired by) But, it takes time and you do have to endure quite a bit of crap and poverty wages.

There is some pretty depressing stuff on this board, look at what the Eagle pilots are going through right now. I think the AA side of DFW will soon look like Baghdad

All things are cyclical, the airlines are in major upheavel, in the next couple of years we'll all know what shape the futre of aviation will take.

Good luck man....

 

[Citrus Jockey]

I think typhoonpilot hit the nail on the head. This is my second downturn in this industry, the first being 91-95, and this one is much worse. We haven't even hit the bottom and it is nearly two years into this downturn. There are many more pilots on furlough this time around and we haven't seen the end of furloughs. As far as retirements go there won't be enough to compensate. I know United retirements are decreasing now from their high in the late nineties. The majors will use retirements to trim the pilot rosters at the airlines. The "retirements will cause the airlines to get the furloughees back and hire" statement is at best wishful thinking and probably shoveled out by the flight schools. Believe me I am an alum of a big name flight school and that mantra was touted all the time along with the myth that there will be a pilot shortage. Believe me it is a diiferent world than advertised, the flight schools' survival depends on it. There are four things that have come together to make this by far the worst downturn in airline history. The economy, overcapacity (kind of related to the first), terroism, and now the war.

Best case scenario the airlines will have all their pilots recalled by 2010. On a positive note not all furloughees will take the recall because they have found other and better employment. When hiring resumes you will not see the 1000 pilots hired in one year by the majors such as AA that you saw in the late nineties. Because of the sweeping workrule changes taking place right now in the industry pilots will fly more and each pilot group will be able to do more with less. Understandbly the competition for these jobs when they come will be fierce. There are the regionals and also the nationals but again competition will be fierce, but if you stick with it it will become a reality, but it will take longer than anticipated.

 

[contrail777]

Try the reserves...

I have been in a two year stuggle to get into a UPT slot with the AFRES or ANG. Finally got the call that I was in this week. Awesome feeling.

If you want to seriously get the chance to fly heavy, check out the AFRES or ANG. Not to mention the fact you will be serving you country, which is very important nowadays.

Good luck!

 

[AA717driver]

It's simple...

If all you've ever wanted to do was fly airplanes, do it. Otherwise you won't be happy.

If you're in this for the money or "glamor", forget it. Go to law school.TC

 

[acarpe3448]

My reply is in response to "Contrail"

Yes I would have to go along with the others who call you a pesemist. As a furloughed pilot from a major airline I am very aware of just how bad it is out there. I would go so far as to say that there is a very good chance that we may lose one or more major airlines during this downturn. But to say that the industry is just about done and that your chances of ever flying right seat in a 757 is a pipe dream, we ll I do not agree. What you seem to be leaving out of the equation is the cargo airlines. Airlines like Fedex and UPS are consistent $ makers and I forsee a bright future for years and years to come. The new postal contracts alone should provide a nice base for growth for years. In addition, these airlines are going to continue to add many more large widebody aircraft. These jobs will be hard to get, and you have to plan for something like this. Take for example me. While I am awating a recall at Delta, I am throwing boxes at Fedex 5 nights a week. It's backbraking work, the hours suck, but if you put in your time you can eventually get a interview. Fedex also offers unlimited career growth from the inside. I myself am keeping a positive mind, and I believe that I will find myself in the cockpit again soon. Just my feelings, anyone agree?