LUV Posts Loss, Says Growth 'Suspended Indefinitely'

[N1atEcon]

Well at least this age 65 comment has distracted everyone from my horrible spelling mistake.

 

[Reebo]

What are you even talking about? Who told you junior SWA pilots supported age 65? Did you just make that up because you're bored or something?

I don't think he made it up. Look at the results when we had the union vote. Not many F/O's even bother to vote. I know many probationary F/O's were "sold" a bill of goods by quite a few senior Captains, "Welcome to Southwestern Trail ways son, don't worry you just sit over there and I'll tell you what to think":angryfire

Hell, I even had heated discussions with my classmates over age 65.

I told everyone in my class that upgrades would be at least 10 years, I was a 2006 hire, and people laughed at me. What they weren't looking at is that.......

SWA has over 200 "classic" aircraft that will need to be replaced in the next 7 to 10 years.

No airline can continue to hire 600 pilots a year and take delivery of 40 aircraft a year forever.

To have movement you need growth AND retirements.

Now we sit in a economic downturn with NO retirements. This wasn't that hard to predict.

 

[Cessna340]

LUV is now down 19% for the day...

 

[Sedona16]

Regarding deliveries of new Boeing 737-700s, Southwest has reduced 2010 orders to 10 from 22. In 2011, the carrier will take 20 aircraft, down from 32. In 2012, it will take 23 aircraft, down from 40. Deliveries are expected to be paired with the removal of older aircraft from the fleet. In 2009, Southwest will take 13 new aircraft, while returning or retiring 15 aircraft.
Meanwhile although it has been a longtime beneficiary of an aggressive fuel hedging program, Southwest said Thursday that it has substantially reduced its net fuel hedge position to approximately 10% of estimated usage from 2009 to 2013, as energy prices have collapsed.
Currently, the value of net fuel derivative contracts for 2009 through 2013 reflects a net liability of about $1 billion. "If current prices become future prices, then (we're) going to lose a lot of money," Kelly said. "(But) when the bear market turns, and becomes a bull market for energy, we'll need to have protection in place."
On the cost side, cost per available seat mile excluding fuel rose by 6.9% to 6.86 cents. For the full year, excluding special items, net income was $294 million, which included $1.3 billion of fuel hedging cash settlement gains.

 

[maxblast72]

The part of the press release that surprised me was that Southwest tapped a revolving line of credit and performed an aircraft sale/leaseback transaction and still ended up with only $1.8 Billion in cash at the end of 2008. Didn't Southwest have over $4 Billion in cash over the summer of 2008? Did they really burn through that much cash in 6 months?

 

[luckytohaveajob]

What are you even talking about? Who told you junior SWA pilots supported age 65? Did you just make that up because you're bored or something?

Your junior pilots lick Paul E's boots clean everyday. They bring Geritol for their Captain's water bottles and ask them between turns if they need another rub down knowing it doesn't feel so bad after the high hard one they got from SWAPA just a year ago. Your junior pilots like taking it in the rear from the senior corndogs. Give it up because you already have once.

And now SWAPA is doing it again to you guys and your more than willing to take it. Enjoy watching your growth go to WestJet and Volaris. Scope is not mouthwash.

 

[RDG]

I don't think he made it up. Look at the results when we had the union vote. Not many F/O's even bother to vote. I know many probationary F/O's were "sold" a bill of goods by quite a few senior Captains, "Welcome to Southwestern Trail ways son, don't worry you just sit over there and I'll tell you what to think":angryfire

Hell, I even had heated discussions with my classmates over age 65.

Well, my class didn't have anyone support the change, save for one guy, who's dad was going to have to retire. And no other fo's I know supported it. Maybe our class was the exception.

 

[Bigoober]

The bigger issue is the lack of growth with codeshares. It could be very interesting.

 

[B727Driver]

"If current prices become future prices, then (we're) going to lose a lot of money," Kelly said.

What are the odds of that happening?

How many think from 2009 to 2013 oil will be at or near $40/bbl?

Does anyone really know what this industry or the world will be like during this time period? No. If you did, you wouldn't be flying airplanes for a living.

 

[Cobra17]

"If current prices become future prices, then (we're) going to lose a lot of money," Kelly said.

What are the odds of that happening?

How many think from 2009 to 2013 oil will be at or near $40/bbl?

Does anyone really know what this industry or the world will be like during this time period? No. If you did, you wouldn't be flying airplanes for a living.

What are you suggesting? I just cancelled my subscriptions to WSJ and Barrons and rely on FI.com exclusively for my investment advice. They seems like they really knows what they talking about.

 

[jhill]

Redflyer65,

I’m fully aware of the fourth quarter $61 million net income. However, the big news of the day is Gary Kelly’s statement that LUV’s growth is “suspended indefinitely.” Their 2009 capacity will be down 4% from 2008.

I’m wondering now if their junior pilots are rethinking their support (or lack thereof) of Age 65?

Welcome to stagnation. It’s something the rest of the legacy carriers know all too well. About all I can say is that we tried to warn them.

AA767AV8TOR

Don't assume we all supported age 65.

 

[luckytohaveajob]

"If current prices become future prices, then (we're) going to lose a lot of money," Kelly said.

What are the odds of that happening?

How many think from 2009 to 2013 oil will be at or near $40/bbl?

Does anyone really know what this industry or the world will be like during this time period? No. If you did, you wouldn't be flying airplanes for a living.

Your 2009 to 2013 prediction clearly implies oil will be above $40. So explain me this Nostradomus, if you don't know the future, why are you so certain oil is going to be above $40?

Oil historically has been below $25 and has only had two brief bubbles, one in 1974 and the most recent. If history is a guide, it will be another 30 years before we get another oil bubble.

 

[B727Driver]

Let's see what happens when the dollar collapses.
There is no foundation under it now.

 

[flyboycmsu]

Let's see what happens when the dollar collapses.
There is no foundation under it now.

The dollar will not collapse. We owe a few other Countries (China) way too much money for them to let it happen. There has been no foundation under it for years, only goodwill.

 

[Sedona16]

"If current prices become future prices, then (we're) going to lose a lot of money," Kelly said.

What are the odds of that happening?

How many think from 2009 to 2013 oil will be at or near $40/bbl?

Does anyone really know what this industry or the world will be like during this time period? No. If you did, you wouldn't be flying airplanes for a living.

Take a deep breath. I quoted the man in charge. I found it interesting he would make such a statement. Its not good news if things go that way but I did find it refreshing he didnt try to spin the facts.